Trump effect? China and Australia bury the hatchet to reopen defence talks after 5 years

After five years, China and Australia have restarted their Defence Strategic Dialogue marking a key moment in their often tense relationship. The talks took place in Canberra and included high-ranking defence officials from both countries. Australia was represented by Deputy Secretary of Defence Hugh Jeffrey, while China sent Major General Song Yanchao, the Deputy Director of the Central Military Commission Office for International Military Cooperation.

This renewal of dialogue suggests a possible improvement in diplomatic ties. However, it also raises an important question: Is this the beginning of a long-term reset in relations or just a short-term adjustment influenced by changing global politics?

Significance of the resumption

The last time China and Australia held high-level defence talks was in 2019. Since then, relations between the two countries have worsened due to diplomatic conflicts, trade restrictions and military tensions. The situation became especially strained in 2020 when China imposed heavy tariffs and trade bans on Australian exports after Canberra called for an independent investigation into the origins of Covid-19.

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The breakdown in defence talks happened alongside growing tensions in the South China Sea and Australia strengthening its military ties with the United States. This was evident through partnerships like Aukus and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which China views with suspicion.

Restarting these talks shows that both countries recognize the need for high-level military communication to avoid conflicts and misunderstandings. Reuters reported that Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles described the meeting as a chance to reopen discussions on military matters, maritime security and regional stability.

Meanwhile, Beijing stressed its commitment to mutual respect and cooperation. However, it remains unclear whether this is a true improvement in relations or simply a strategic move to keep tensions under control as regional dynamics continue to evolve.

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Military confrontations and the urgency for dialogue

One of the critical factors driving the need for renewed defence talks is the recent pattern of military confrontations between China and Australia. In May 2023, a Chinese J-16 fighter jet intercepted an Australian P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft in the South China Sea, releasing flares dangerously close to the plane.

More recently, in November 2023, another PLA fighter engaged in a similarly aggressive manoeuvre against an Australian aircraft, raising concerns about Beijing’s assertiveness in international airspace.

These incidents, coupled with China’s growing naval presence near Australian waters, have reinforced the urgency of defence communication. The dialogue in Canberra provided an opportunity for both nations to discuss rules of engagement, risk reduction mechanisms and protocols for avoiding unintended escalation.

While the Australian side has remained cautious, calling for “professional and safe” military interactions, Beijing has framed these incidents as necessary measures to defend its territorial claims.

Ironically, just a day after the Defence Strategic Dialogue, Australia was forced to closely track a Chinese navy task group operating within its exclusive economic zone off the east coast, though Defence Minister Marles confirmed the ships have not violated maritime laws. The South China Morning Post reported that the Chinese fleet, consisting of a frigate, cruiser and replenishment vessel moved south after passing through the Torres Strait between Australia and Papua New Guinea.

Marles emphasised that while such naval movements are not unprecedented, they remain unusual. He assured that Australia’s air force and navy are closely monitoring the situation and will assess the mission’s intent once it concludes.

Australia’s strategic balancing act

Australia’s relationship with China is increasingly influenced by its strategic ties with the United States and its commitments under the Aukus pact, as highlighted in The Diplomat by Corey Lee Bell and Elena Collinson in January 2024. The approval of Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines under Aukus has drawn sharp criticism from Beijing, which views it as an attempt to curb Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific. Despite these tensions, China remains Australia’s largest trading partner making economic engagement essential.

The defence talks have resumed at a crucial time when Australia is carefully adjusting its foreign policy to avoid direct conflict while reinforcing deterrence measures. The Anthony Albanese government has worked to stabilise trade relations with China achieving the removal of some tariffs while maintaining a firm position on security matters. This approach reflects Australia’s broader strategy—engaging with China diplomatically without compromising on national security.

Broader geopolitical context

The timing of the defence dialogue is closely linked to broader geopolitical shifts. The ongoing rivalry between the United States and China continues to shape the Indo-Pacific region with Washington strengthening security ties with allies such as Australia. The Biden administration maintained its commitment to upholding the rules-based international order, a stance that Australia has also emphasised in its regional policies.

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, the global order is changing fast. Trump has pressed a reset button, forcing all major global powers to find a new diplomatic and geostrategic balance. Trump signals out China as a traffic imposer and an exporter that eats away American dollar but he is also open to forming an alliance with Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

At the same time, China has been expanding its diplomatic and military presence, particularly by deepening ties with Pacific Island nations and asserting its influence in the South China Sea. The decision to resume talks with Australia could be part of Beijing’s strategy to prevent Canberra from further aligning with Washington while signalling a willingness to engage through diplomatic channels.

Risks and limitations of the talks

While reopening dialogue is a step forward, it has clear limitations. The core strategic disagreements between China and Australia remain unresolved. China continues to assert its territorial claims aggressively, while Australia is strengthening its defence posture in response. Recent military incidents have highlighted the ongoing risks of conflict and a single round of discussions is unlikely to eliminate these tensions.

Domestic politics in both countries also play a role in shaping engagement. In Australia, the government faces pressure from security analysts and opposition leaders who caution against trusting Beijing’s diplomatic moves. In China, the Communist Party remains firm in its regional ambitions making significant concessions on security matters unlikely.

A stormy path

The restart of the China-Australia Defence Strategic Dialogue is a careful step toward rebuilding military communication after years of strained relations. It shows that both sides recognised the need for engagement, but it is uncertain whether this signals a lasting improvement or just a short-term diplomatic move.

With ongoing strategic competition, deep economic ties and recent military tensions, the future of their defence relationship remains unclear. While the dialogue may help reduce risks of escalation, real progress will depend on meaningful policy changes. Without that, tensions in the Indo-Pacific are likely to continue.