Trump effect: Biden rushes in aid to Ukraine as it jostles with Russia for stronger seat on talks table

The war between Ukraine and Russia has intensified in recent weeks as hopes for peace talks rise with Trump 2.0 in the US. The outgoing Biden administration has upped its efforts to send aid to Ukraine as Russia makes serious inroads inside the country. The incoming US president, Donald Trump, has publicly stated that his administration would cut down on military aid to Ukraine if it does not come to the negotiating table.

Both Ukraine and Russia and their global allies seem to be scrambling to gain the position of maximum strength before Trump brings about any changes to America’s policy in the war that began in February 2022 when Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade the neighbouring country. While Russia has made rapid advances in Ukraine pushing the battlefronts inside the former Soviet constituent country, the US’s outgoing President Joe Biden has focused on fortifying Kyiv’s defences ahead of the inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20.

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Trump worry on Ukraine’s frontlines

Trump has insisted in recent days that Russia and Ukraine immediately reach a ceasefire. He has indicated that Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy should likely prepare to receive less US military aid. On the war’s front lines, Ukraine’s forces are mindful of Trump’s fast-approaching presidency and the risk of losing their biggest backer, news agency The Associated Press recently reported.

If that happens, “those people who are with me, my unit, we are not going to retreat," The AP quoted a Ukrainian strike-drone company commander, fighting in Russia’s Kursk region with the 47th Brigade, as saying.

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“As long as we have ammunition, as long as we have weapons, as long as we have some means to defeat the enemy, we will fight,” said the commander, who goes by his military call sign, Hummer. He spoke on condition he not be identified by name, citing Ukrainian military rules and security concerns.

“But, when all means run out, you must understand, we will be destroyed very quickly,” he said.

Biden in a rush

On the other hand, the Biden administration appears to be pushing every available dollar out the door to shore up Ukraine’s defenses before leaving office in less than six weeks. Biden has announced more than $2 billion in additional support since Trump won the presidential election last month.

In all, the Biden administration has sent a total of $62 billion in military aid since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. And reports suggest that more help is on the way.

The administration is on track to disperse the US portion of a $50 billion loan to Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets, before Biden leaves the White House, reports quoted US officials as saying. The US and Ukraine are reportedly in “advanced stages” of discussing terms of the loan and close to executing the $20 billion of the larger loan that the US is backing.

More power to Zelenskyy

Biden has allowed Zelenskyy to strike harder on Putin’s strategic advantages, easing limits on Ukraine using American longer-range missiles against military targets deeper inside Russia. This came after months of reluctance and refusal to multiple appeals by Zelenskyy over fears of provoking Russia into nuclear war or attacks on the West.

Additionally, Biden also allowed Ukraine to employ antipersonnel mines, which are banned by many countries. All these came amid scepticism that Biden and his senior advisers have over freer use of the longer-range missiles. They fear that such a step may change the broader trajectory of the war.

However, the Biden administration seems to believe that its renewed aid push and Europe’s continued strong support may give Ukraine — before Trump comes in — the tools Zelenskyy needs to sustain the fight against Russia for some time. This may not be enough to Putin’s forces but may give Zelenskyy some strength to begin negotiations.

The changed situation

Events that unfolded in West Asia — the fall of Bashar al-Assad — also seems to be influencing the Ukraine war. The Syrian outcome showed Russia’s weariness in the Ukraine war. Rebels seized the country’s capital and toppled Russia-allied President Bashar Assad. Russian forces in Syria had propped up Assad for years, but they moved out of the way of the rebels’ assault, unwilling to take losses to defend their ally.

Biden has also said the fall of Assad was evidence that US support for Zelenskyy was wearing down Russia’s military. Trump, on the other hand, has long spoken favorably of Putin and described Zelenskyy as a “showman" wheedling money from the US.

In a TV interview, just before Trump met Zelenskyy in Paris during the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral, the US president-elect told the interviewer “yeah, probably, sure” to a question about if Ukraine should prepare for the possibility of reduced aid.

Zelenskyy is obviously not happy and banks on the remaining days of Biden in the White House to boost his position on the anticipated negotiation table. “Forcing Putin to end the war requires Ukraine to be strong on the battlefield before it can be strong diplomatically,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media, repeating near-daily appeals for more longer-range missiles from the US and Europe.

A lot also depends on Zelenskyy’s Kursk incursion move. A Ukrainian commander said he noticed Russian artillery strikes and shelling easing up since the US and its European allies loosened limits on use of longer-range missiles. This validates the position taken by Biden and Zelenskyy.

(With inputs from agencies)