 "Trouble in west, fear in east & splintering in south: Can Pakistan really afford an escalation?")
With tensions with India at their highest in years following the deadly Pahalgam terror attack, Pakistan finds itself heading towards a combustible national crisis, one that spans across its eastern, western and southern flanks.
As Islamabad seeks to deflect New Delhi’s accusations and calls for a “neutral” probe, the country faces growing internal instability that raises a critical question: Can Pakistan really afford an escalation right now?
The attack in Pahalgam, which claimed the lives of 26 has severely strained diplomatic ties. India has blamed Pakistan-based operatives for the assault, identifying two of the three attackers as Pakistani nationals — a claim Islamabad denies. However, intelligence inputs suggest that the operatives were trained across the border, prompting India to retaliate with a series of punitive measures.
These include the immediate suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, the closure of the Integrated Check Post at Attari and the revocation of SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme visas issued to Pakistani nationals besides reducing diplomatic staff strength to 30 members each by May 1, down from the current 55. While Pakistan’s government insisted it is open to cooperation and remains committed to peace and called for a “neutral” probe but the diplomatic fallout threatens to deepen the freeze between the nuclear-armed rivals.
Trouble in the West: Afghan border unrest
Even as Islamabad grapples with Indian pressure, its western frontier is ablaze. A powerful bomb blast in South Waziristan’s Wana district killed seven and wounded 16, targeting a pro-government peace committee. The attack came just a day after Pakistan’s military claimed to have killed 54 militants attempting to infiltrate from Afghanistan, one of the deadliest clashes reported in years.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a sworn enemy of the state, has intensified operations since the Afghan Taliban’s 2021 takeover. Islamabad accuses Kabul of harbouring TTP fighters, complicating an already fraught relationship.
Fear in the East: India’s retaliation & diplomatic freeze
India’s retaliatory measures, particularly the Indus Treaty suspension could cripple Pakistan’s water-dependent agriculture. With Attari trade halted and SAARC visas scrapped, cross-border movement and commerce face paralysis.
Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tatar accused India of “baseless accusations” to divert attention from its own internal strife. But with New Delhi taking a hard-line stance, Islamabad risks being cornered at a time when its economy and internal security are already under strain.
Splintering in the South: Balochistan’s unrest turns deadly
Meanwhile, Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest and most volatile province, is witnessing a fresh wave of violence. The discovery of seven bullet-riddled bodies in Ziarat district sparked protests, highlighting the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA)’s growing boldness.
The separatist insurgency in Balochistan is escalating, largely overlooked by Islamabad’s ruling establishment. While the military focuses on consolidating General Syed Asim Munir’s control through political maneuvering, deep-rooted grievances in the province remain unresolved. This neglect is fuelling further rebellion and intensifying unrest in the region.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsCan Pakistan afford an escalation?
With economic instability, rising militancy and diplomatic isolation, Pakistan’s leadership faces a precarious balancing act. The military may prefer to focus on India but the TTP’s resurgence and Baloch unrest demand urgent attention.
As tensions mount, the question looms: Does Islamabad have the bandwidth, or the resources to fight on multiple fronts? For now, the crises in the west, east, and south show no signs of abating, and Pakistan’s options are running thin. With growing chaos at home and escalating tensions with its neighbour, Pakistan is walking a dangerous tightrope.
The convergence of internal fissures and external pressures threatens to destabilise the nation, which is already reeling under economic stress, even further. In such a volatile environment, the real cost of escalation both diplomatic and domestic may prove too heavy for Islamabad to bear.
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