TikToker Georgescu lost but Putin won Romania’s presidential election, 5 factors

Romania’s presidential election took a dramatic turn when the Constitutional Court annulled the results due to suspected Russian interference. Despite far-right candidate Călin Georgescu’s surprising win, the court’s decision deemed the election invalid. The alleged Russian role in manipulating elections was so extensive that it prompted the court to order a fresh vote, likely to take place in early 2025.

Here are five factors that suggest TikToker Călin Georgescu may lose the elections, but Russia may have achieved its goals through influence operations:

1. Romanian President Klaus Iohannis on Monday nominated incumbent Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu to form a new pro-European coalition government, a move to resolve the political crisis started by the annulment of a presidential election by the country’s top court.

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Ciolacu, leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), which secured the most votes in the December 1 parliamentary elections, has served as prime minister since June 2023. His nomination follows discussions with political parties and is seen as a strategic move to counter the rising influence of far-right nationalists, who gained ground in parliament amid growing anti-establishment sentiment.

2. Romanian intelligence has revealed a large-scale TikTok campaign that influenced the first round of the presidential elections, according to declassified documents. The operation, involving over 25,000 accounts, drove far-right candidate Călin Georgescu’s support from 5% to 23% in just three weeks. The manipulation was so extensive that Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the election and mandated a fresh vote.

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The campaign utilised a network of influencers, coordinated hashtags, and a sophisticated financing system, with $381,000 spent on promoting videos and hashtags. It targeted Romania’s nine million TikTok users, nearly half of the country’s adult population. However, Georgescu reported no campaign expenses to the Electoral Supervisory Commission.

Intelligence reports suggest ties to Russia and detail the campaign’s structure, including the activation of 797 dormant accounts created in 2016, which became active just before the election. To evade detection, the operation used unique IP addresses for each account, preventing identification as a botnet.

Georgescu, a 62-year-old independent far-right candidate, ran a social media-focused campaign, with TikTok as the primary platform.

3. The original three rounds of votes to elect a new president and parliament in the European Union and NATO state, which shares the longest land border with Ukraine, descended into chaos when a little-known far-right pro-Russian politician won the first presidential round on Nov. 24. His shocking win prompted Romania’s top court to annul the election on suspicion of Russian meddling and order that it be re-run, likely in the first part of 2025.

4. Why it matters — Romania, a key NATO member on the alliance’s eastern flank with a long border shared with Ukraine, is the latest Eastern European nation grappling with Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics. The country’s Constitutional Court ruled that intelligence reports of Russian interference were serious enough to annul the presidential election and delay the vote.

This situation mirrors recent challenges faced by other regional neighbours. Moldova’s presidential election was marred by allegations of Russian meddling and voter fraud, while in Georgia, pro-Western opposition parties claimed Kremlin interference influenced contested polls. Romania’s presidential election will happen in three to four months, allowing candidates time to secure endorsements for their campaigns.

5. What is next?- Georgescu has claimed that he is the victim of a conspiracy by the political elite, designed to prevent him from taking power and undermining the will of the people. He compared his situation to that of Donald Trump in the United States, alleging similar efforts by the establishment to thwart his rise.

Even his main rival, Lasconi, criticised the court’s decision, accusing it of trampling Romania’s democracy. Georgescu echoed this sentiment, using the same phrase to express his dissatisfaction. He has indicated plans to file a complaint with Romania’s Supreme Court, though there is no clear legal avenue for overturning the Constitutional Court’s ruling. It remains unclear whether Georgescu intends to run again in the upcoming election.