Tariffs, tensions and trade-offs: Asean braces for Trump twisters in Malaysia

Leaders around the world are heading east to attend the Asean and East Asia Summits in Malaysia. Among these notable leaders will be US President Donald Trump, who will attend the international event for the first time since 2017. The last time Trump took part in the ASEAN Summit was when it was held in the Philippines.

However, at that time, he skipped the East Asia Summit. Not only this, his absence at Asean summits in the following years of his first presidency fuelled the perception that America is uninterested in the region, which turned out to be concerning due to China’s growing assertiveness over East Asian nations. This can be reflected by the fact that China continues to remain the bloc’s largest trading partner.

This year’s Asean and East Asia summits will commence from October 26 to 28, respectively. Both events are part of Trump’s several stops during his Asia tour. After Malaysia, the Potus will be heading to Japan for talks and then to South Korea for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit.

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Tariffs to garner the centre of attention

While several world leaders will be attending the summit, Trump will garner the centre of attention. In large part, it will be because of the new tariff rates on Asean states, a huge negative shock to the highly trade-dependent region.

At the top of Trump’s tariff tirade in the region is Laos and Myanmar at 40 per cent; Brunei at 23 per cent; Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Cambodia at 19 per cent; and Singapore at the lowest of 10 per cent. While Asean leaders will come with a wide array of issues, they will have one united front over the tariff issue.

All the nations would attempt to persuade the US president of the strategic importance of the region and to seek more favourable tariff deals with Washington. However, it is uncertain how Trump would react to these efforts.

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The China question

The Trump administration has been aware that, across the bloc, China has been the leading trade partner for more than a decade and a half, with trade totalling over a whopping $600 billion in the first months of 2025. The large number of world leaders attending the summit also reflects how fast the region is becoming a major focus of economic diplomacy for foreign nations.

The strategically located region has a population of over 600 million and an area of about 4.5 million square km. Apart from this, Asean also has a purchasing power parity GDP of more than US$10 trillion, which is growing significantly. Interestingly, the diplomatic attention on the region grew significantly during the former US President Joe Biden’s administration. At the November 2022 Asean summit in Cambodia, which then-President Joe Biden attended, regional leaders elevated US-Asean relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership.

The US is also stepping up its diplomatic profile in Asean by providing significant financial assistance to the bloc. However, their previous commitment is a point of tension. Earlier this month, key members of the US Congress released a letter on a bipartisan basis, calling on Trump to show the same level of commitment to the region.

The letter noted that it is important that Trump attends the upcoming summits in Asia, and supports forums such as the Quad with Japan, India and Australia, as “essential to demonstrate US leadership and counter PRC (People’s Republic of China) ambitions”. Overall, it’ll be interesting to see how the summit will play out.