 "Tariff roulette: Trump’s zigzag trade policies rattle global markets")
A gobsmacked planet is wondering what’s next from President Donald Trump on the tariff spree he’s set in zigzag motion.
In recent weeks, Trump has announced punishing tariffs against allies and adversaries alike, selectively paused and imposed them, doubled and then halved some, and warned late in the week that he’ll tax European wine and spirits a stratospheric 200% if the European Union doesn’t drop a 50% tariff on U.S. whiskey.
His ultimate stated goal is clear: to revive American manufacturing and win compromises along the way. But people and nations whose fortunes rise and fall on trade are trying to divine a method to his machinations. So far, he’s spurred fears about slower growth and higher inflation that are dragging down the stock market and consumer confidence.
“His tariff policy is erratic, more erratic than April weather,” Robert Halver, head of capital markets analysis at Germany’s Baader Bank, said from the floor of the Frankfurt stock market. “So, there is no planning certainty at all.”
The same goes for Exit 9 Wine & Liquor Warehouse in Clifton Park, New York, where owner Mark O’Callaghan is waiting to see if the prohibitive taxes on European wine — over a third of his business — really happen. He’s mindful of Trump’s seemingly whack-a-mole approach on which countries and goods to hit and how hard.
“It changes by the hour now, right?” O’Callaghan said. ”You know, it’s hard to navigate and manage, and everything changes so quickly.”
In Canada, generations of political leaders took it as a point of pride that their country and the U.S. share the “world’s longest undefended border,” as they liked to say. No more.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsTrump’s sweeping taxes on Canadian imports come in the context of his wanting the U.S. to absorb its neighbor, an ambition that has united Canadians of the left and right in seething anger. A recent Nanos poll found that the vast majority of Canadians say their opinion of the United States has sunk from a year ago.
“The Americans want our resources, our water, our land, our country,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said days before his swearing-in Friday. “Think about it. If they succeed, they will destroy our way of life.”
Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said: “If the U.S. can do this to us, their closest friend, then nobody is safe.”
Trade wars sparked by retaliatory and escalating tariffs typically form in the grind of legislation, as happened with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act nearly a century ago. This round comes from Trump’s executive actions, with Congress passive, and can change like the weather, or perhaps even his moods.
That’s how March came in like a lion.
Personal pique is part of it all, suggests Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “If you make him unhappy, he responds unhappy,” he told Bloomberg TV, explaining that Trump didn’t like it when a variety of countries targeted with new U.S. tariffs retaliated with tariffs of their own.
Nor was Trump content when Canada did not show “immeasurable respect” for his trade grievances, Lutnick told CBS News. “Say, ‘Thank you, I want to work it out with you,’” he added, as if advising Ottawa on how to be properly deferential. “’I want you to be happy.’”
Trump himself said of Canada, “We don’t need anything that they have.” Canada is the largest foreign supplier of steel and aluminum to the U.S. and a key source of energy, cars and car parts via the integrated North American auto industry, food, critical minerals, fertilizer, lumber and more.
His stop-and-start tariffs have shaken the stock market, yielded some concessions and induced whiplash across industries and countries:
— Heavy taxes on Canadian and Mexican products were announced, shelved for a month — one day away from taking effect — imposed, then two days later adjusted to exempt, for now, a range of goods covered under the North American trade pact renegotiated in Trump’s first term. Trump’s aides say the reason for those tariffs is to end fentanyl smuggling and illegal immigration, though the president also wants to close the trade deficit with America’s two largest trade partners.
— Trump stuck with his new tariffs on China, imposing a 10% penalty then doubling it, drawing retaliatory tariffs of 15% on U.S. farm goods this past week. The U.S. tariffs are also about fentanyl.
— The prevailing tensions between Canada and the U.S. flared when Ontario, the most populous province, retaliated against the U.S. duties with an announcement that it would add a 25% surcharge on electricity it exports to several states.
Trump, who now belittles Canadian sovereignty at every turn, immediately threatened to slam Canada with a 50% tax on steel and aluminum. He then pulled back to a still-hefty 25% when Ontario backed down, in a drama that played out over mere hours.
But Wednesday, the global U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum kicked in, and Europe responded. The EU announced duties on U.S. textiles, home appliances, motorcycles, peanut butter, jeans and more. American whiskey, popular overseas, was marked for a 50% tariff.
Trump’s response: 200% on European wine and spirits and on Champagne.
“We want toasts, not tariffs,” said Chris Swonger, president and CEO of the Distilled Spirits Council in the U.S.
But escalation appears to be the toast of the day. The U.S. has a new wave of reciprocal tariffs in line against Europe in early April, and exemptions for the auto industry and other industries are set to expire.
There’s not much chance March will go out like a lamb.
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