Taiwanese fighter who served in Ukraine says island unprepared for Chinese invasion

Chen Xi, a former fighter in Ukraine’s International Legion, has returned to Taiwan with a stark warning: the island is unprepared for a potential Chinese invasion.

The 32-year-old, who previously trained with the French Foreign Legion, said Taiwan’s military is hampered by outdated strategies and insufficient training. Years of peace, he argued, have lulled the nation into a false sense of security.

“We need a wake-up call or some kind of incident to prepare us, as Ukraine faced in Donbas in 2014,” POLITICO quoted Xi as sayin in a reference to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the ensuing conflict in eastern Ukraine.

China’s threat looms large

China views Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out forceful reunification. U.S. intelligence reports indicate Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed his military to be ready for an invasion by 2027.

Despite increasing Chinese military drills near the island, Taiwan faces significant challenges in readiness. Government officials point to shortages in manpower, training, and modern weaponry.

“Since January 2022, almost parallel to the Ukraine war, we have lost 12,000 volunteer soldiers,” said Alexander Huang, head of the opposition Kuomintang Party’s (KMT) International Affairs Department. “All the army services — the army, the navy — are short of readiness.”

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Lessons from Ukraine

Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has intensified discussions on military reform, drawing parallels between Taiwan’s threat from China and Ukraine’s fight against Russia.

Xi highlighted the pivotal role of drones in modern warfare, citing Ukraine’s experience. “If a conflict does occur, drones will probably be part of the equation, so we should prepare,” he said.

China appears to have taken note, producing over 1.26 million drones in 2023, a 32 per cent increase from the previous year.

Defence spending falls short

Taiwan’s defence budget for 2024 is set to rise to $19.1 billion, approximately 2.6 per cent of GDP. The government plans to further increase spending to nearly $20 billion next year, though this remains a fraction of China’s military expenditure.

While Taiwan exceeds Nato’s 2 per cent of GDP defence spending benchmark, experts argue it needs to allocate more. The United States has urged Taiwan to spend at least 5 per cent, with some advocating for 10 per cent.

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The only strategy is to “hold ourselves long enough for the Americans to come in,” Xi said, pointing to the need for better-equipped reserve forces. While Taiwan claims to have 2.5 million reservists, experts estimate only 100,000 are adequately prepared.

Aid to Ukraine and geopolitical challenges

Taiwan has contributed over €100 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine, largely through European partners like Lithuania and Poland, to avoid angering China. Direct government-to-government contact with Kyiv remains off-limits.

“Even though we want to support Ukraine, there’s never been any direct government-to-government contact,” said François Chihchung Wu, Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister.