Taiwan detects 30 Chinese warplanes, 9 naval ships around island, highest this year in a 24-hour window

As many as 30 Chinese warplanes and nine naval ships were detected around Taiwan’s territories on Wednesday, one of the highest this year in a 24-hour window.

In a post of X (formerly Twitter), Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, R.O.C, said the Chinese air force warplanes and warships were detected up to 6 am (local time) on Wednesday in the country’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ).

The Taiwanese military “monitored the situation and employed appropriate force to respond”, the Taiwanese government added.

30 PLA aircraft and 9 PLAN vessels operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 20 of the aircraft entered Taiwan’s northern, middle line, and SW ADIZ. #ROCArmedForces have monitored the situation and employed appropriate force to respond. pic.twitter.com/LkVR7XQ3LD

— 國防部 Ministry of National Defense, ROC(Taiwan) 🇹🇼 (@MoNDefense) April 3, 2024

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Last month, Taiwanese authorities said 36 Chinese warplanes and six naval ships were detected around the island.

China has hardened its stance on Taiwan

China considers the self-governing island of Taiwan as a breakaway province. Beijing is committed to the eventual reunification of Taiwan with the Chinese mainland and has not ruled out the use of force for that purpose. In recent years, tensions have spiked in the Taiwan Strait —the strait in the South China Sea between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland— as China has increased military activity harassing Taiwan.

Lately, Chinese leaders have hardened the rhetoric regarding Taiwan. In 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping said that Beijing “will not renounce the use of force and will take all necessary measures to stop all separatist movements” in Taiwan. Then, in December 2023, Xi said the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland is “inevitable”. Then, last month, Chinese Premier Li Qiang in a report in the National People’s Congress (NPC), the country’s rubber-stamp parliament, reiterated the call for the reunification but dropped the word “peaceful” from the report that had been used in earlier reports.

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The Chinese attitude has also hardened as Taiwan has been governed since 2016 by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which is more pro-independence. Beijing considers the DPP leaders as “secessionist” and “confrontational”.

China expected to increase pressure on Taiwan as new president takes over

After the victory of William Lai of the DPP, the current Vice President of Taiwan, in the presidential elections earlier this year, China is expected to ramp up pressure to force Taiwan it to adopt a more accommodative stance. He will assume office on May 20.

In the Taiwanese polity, Beijing has preferred DPP’s rival Kuomintang (KMT), which it sees as more accommodative to its interests than the DPP which it sees as much closer to the United States.

Following Lai’s taking office, there will likely be an “immediate uptick” in the number of Chinese incursions to “send the signal, ‘you voted poorly’”, said Dean Cheng, Senior Advisor to the China Program at the US Institute of Peace (USIP), to Axios.

The report also quoted Raymond Kuo, Director of the RAND Corporation’s Taiwan Policy Initiative, as saying that Beijing could “conduct some kind of military demonstration around inauguration day to signal their displeasure with the incoming Lai administration”.

The AFP noted that Chinese incursions, which experts call ‘grey zone’ actions that are aggressive moves short of acts of war, have been increased since 2016 when current and outgoing Taiwanese President, Tsai Ing-wen of DPP, was elected, who considers Taiwan to be “already independent”. The assertion of Taiwanese independence has long been a red line for Beijing.