No signs of abating: Sudan's civil war deepens as global powers stoke the flames

A year of Sudan’s civil war, which erupted in April 2023, is showing no signs of abating. The fighting between the country’s army and the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has pushed the vast Afro-Arab nation closer to the abyss, with more factions joining the conflict and hopes for a political settlement rapidly diminishing.

The conflict pits the Sudanese military, led by General Abdel Fattah Burhan, against the RSF, commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. The intense power struggle has escalated into a full-blown civil war, transforming parts of Sudan into epicenters of one of the world’s most dire humanitarian crises. With the war continue to escalate, the hope for political settlements has significantly diminished.

Sudan, rich in natural resources and strategically positioned at the intersection of North Africa, the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and the Red Sea, finds itself torn apart as both factions fight for control. Both the Sudanese military and the RSF are backed by tens of thousands of fighters and supported by foreign allies. Their control over significant mineral resources and other economic assets provides them with the financial means to sustain the conflict, making it difficult for international sanctions to have any meaningful impact.

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This conflict is a recipe for the kind of prolonged conflict in the regions that has devastated countries like Lebanon, Syria, Libya, and Ethiopia. As Sudan’s internal strife continues, the country moves closer to the brink, with the ongoing war exacerbating an already severe humanitarian catastrophe and leaving the future uncertain.

Foreign meddling & global ramifications

Sudan’s ongoing conflict has become a playground for foreign players, turning the country into a battleground for international interests. Nations like the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Russia, and even Ukrainian special forces have actively been involved, supplying weapons and fighters into the conflict to secure Sudan’s valuable gold resources to gain strategic positions on the Red Sea.

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Iran, already supporting the Houthis in Yemen, now extends its influence to military forces on both sides of the Red Sea. European nations are concerned about a potential surge of Sudanese migrants heading toward their borders. A recent assessment by U.S. intelligence warned that Sudan could become a hotspot for “terrorist and criminal networks” if the current lawlessness continues.

The UAE and Russia have reportedly been fueling the conflict. The Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary organisation linked to Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin, supplied missiles to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) early in the conflict. Russia’s long-standing interest in Port Sudan’s facilities on the Red Sea adds another layer of complexity. Wagner mercenaries reportedly supplied the RSF with anti-aircraft missiles and also trained RSF fighters in Khartoum earlier in the war to target Sudanese military aircraft, as noted by UN investigators and senior Sudanese officials.

Presently, nearly two dozen Wagner operatives remain active in the capital, assisting the RSF by operating drones and launching mortars, according to reports. This Russian involvement has prompted Ukraine to send a small team of special forces to support the Sudanese military in Khartoum, countering their adversaries abroad.

The UAE maintains that it provides only humanitarian aid, not weapons. However, Egypt and Iran support the Sudanese army commander, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, in his fight against RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti.

US officials have increasingly criticised the UAE, identified as the war’s largest foreign sponsor. According to reports, the UAE has significant gold and agricultural investments in Sudan and had previously signed a $6 billion deal to construct a port on the Red Sea. Reports indicate that since last year, the UAE has been smuggling weapons to the RSF through a base in Chad, violating a UN arms embargo. In contrast, Egypt has supported Sudan’s military. However, the army’s recent reliance on Iran for drones and other military equipment has raised alarms in Washington, according to Western officials. Russia appears to have provided support to both sides of the conflict.

The foreign meddling is frustrating US- and Saudi-led diplomacy to reach a consensus. The conflict threatens to extend beyond Sudan’s borders, already straining Chad’s security services and disrupting vital oil revenues for South Sudan. The war now risks drawing in Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous nation.

Recently, Sudanese officials accused Ethiopia of supporting the RSF, while Eritrea, Ethiopia’s longstanding adversary, aligns with Sudan’s military. Thousands of Ethiopian Tigray rebels are reportedly stationed in a camp in eastern Sudan, contributing to an increasingly volatile situation that could spark a new front in the conflict.

Humanitarian catastrophe

The harrowing scenes of families being killed in front of their children, communities set ablaze, and desperate, hungry people fleeing violence paint a grim picture of Sudan’s current state. As the children’s cries fade away and communities burn, the result is an immense dislocation, hunger, and thirst—a prelude to famine and widespread death. The people of Sudan, abandoned and terrified, find themselves unprotected and unseen amidst the chaos.

Since the outbreak of war nearly a year ago, Sudan has plunged into one of the worst humanitarian crises of recent history. Rising food and energy prices have exacerbated inflation, intensifying the hardships faced by its people. A burgeoning regional black market thrives, with essentials like fuel, wheat, and sesame being illicitly traded across borders. Meanwhile, divisions deepen within Sudan’s political landscape and among protesters in the streets.

The World Food Programme (WFP) recently highlighted that Sudan is on the brink of becoming the world’s largest hunger crisis. The ongoing conflict has caused unprecedented levels of hunger and violence, with increased attacks by paramilitary groups contributing to the emergency. Heavy fighting, which erupted last April, has left 18 million people acutely food insecure, including nearly five million grappling with emergency levels of hunger.

Sudan’s inability to finance sufficient food imports has exacerbated the crisis. Last year saw staple grain prices double, a trend expected to continue due to another poor harvest. The looming lean season threatens to deepen food shortages, severely impacting millions already suffering from hunger, disease, and malnutrition.

In South Sudan, the economic fallout from Sudan’s war could plunge an additional one million people into severe food insecurity. Already, over half of South Sudan’s population—7.1 million people—face acute hunger. The modelling from WFP shows that food prices have more than doubled in some areas, leaving four out of five households struggling to afford basic necessities.

The intensifying conflict in Sudan portends a dire future, as the nation is set to trigger the world’s largest hunger emergency. The crisis’ impact is felt across the entire region, threatening the livelihoods of 28 million food-insecure individuals in Sudan, South Sudan, and Chad.

Sudan had the world’s largest number of people facing extreme food shortages in 2023, as conflict and displacement drove global food insecurity, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The ongoing war between rival generals accounted for two-thirds of the additional 13.5 million people in need of urgent help last year. This dire situation mirrors the severe food crisis in Gaza, where conflict has left the entire population grappling with high levels of food insecurity.

As Sudan’s conflict continues to spiral, the international community must urgently address this burgeoning catastrophe to prevent further devastation.

World’s biggest displacement crisis

The ongoing conflict in Sudan has created the world’s most severe displacement crisis, with nearly 9 million people forced from their homes, according to the United Nations. As the country teeters on the brink of famine, officials warn that hundreds of thousands of children could die in the coming months due to starvation and malnutrition.

The roots of this crisis lie in a long-standing power struggle between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This simmering dispute erupted into full-scale civil war in April 2023. Since then, the violence has escalated, turning Sudan into what many describe as the world’s worst humanitarian emergency. U.S. estimates suggest that as many as 150,000 people may have been killed since the conflict began.

As the violence rages on, millions have been uprooted from their homes, resulting in the largest displacement crisis on the planet. The United Nations highlights that South Sudan has borne the brunt of this mass exodus, receiving approximately 640,000 refugees from Sudan. The daily influx of around 1,800 new arrivals is putting immense strain on already overstretched infrastructure and deepening the humanitarian crisis in the region.

Chad, too, has seen significant refugee inflows, with numbers exceeding 560,000. Despite efforts by the UNHCR and aid partners to relocate many refugees to new and expanded settlements, over 150,000 remain in overcrowded and unsanitary conditions near the border, primarily due to insufficient funding. These precarious living situations heighten the risk of disease and further suffering among the displaced population.

In Ethiopia, which already hosts one of the largest refugee populations in Africa, the situation is similarly dire. The country has recently reported surpassing 50,000 new refugee arrivals from Sudan, adding to its already significant humanitarian burden.

The scale of displacement and the accompanying humanitarian needs are staggering. With the conflict showing no signs of resolution, the international community faces an urgent call to action to address the immediate needs of millions of displaced people and to work towards a lasting solution to Sudan’s conflict.

How gold fuels the war in Sudan

Gold is a crucial element driving the brutal conflict in Sudan’s ongoing civil war. The United Nations reports that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are heavily relying on revenues from gold mining to finance their devastating campaign against Sudan’s military.

Over the past decade, Sudan has ascended to become Africa’s third-largest producer of gold. However, this rise in gold production has coincided with deepening poverty in the nation, which is ranked 172nd out of 191 countries on the United Nations Human Development Index.

While the expansion of the gold industry alone does not account for Sudan’s increasing impoverishment, the fierce competition for control over the lucrative resource is intensifying the current conflict. The struggle for dominance between the Sudanese military and the RSF is largely driven by the latter’s dependence on gold as a significant source of funding for its operations.

Sudan’s civil war: As many as 150,000 people may have been killed since the conflict began. The harrowing scenes of families being killed in front of their children, communities set ablaze, and desperate, hungry people fleeing violence paint a grim picture of Sudan’s current state. As the country teeters on the brink of famine, officials warn that hundreds of thousands of children could die in the coming months due to starvation and malnutrition.