South Korea: Impeachment or resignation, Yoon-scripted K-drama is not ending anytime soon

Following the doomed but briefly imposed martial law, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is losing out on his supporters as the day goes by. On Friday, the head of the South Korean ruling party said that Yoon could “put citizens in great danger” if he was not suspended from office. The calls came after the opposition lawmakers prepared to file an impeachment motion against the country’s president.

“[If] President Yoon continues to hold the office of the presidency, there is a significant risk that extreme actions similar to the martial law declaration could be repeated, which could put the Republic of Korea and its citizens in great danger,” the head of the People Power party, Han Dong-hoon, said at an emergency party leadership meeting on Friday.

The proclamation came days after Yoon left the country shocked the country after he abruptly imposed martial law, unbeknownst to his party members. While announcing his decision, Yoon said that martial law is being imposed to root out “anti-state forces” and overcome obstructionist political opponents.

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Chaos ensued soon after as lawmakers and protesters clashed with the country’s army. The pressure became so intense that after six hours, parliament, including some members of his party, voted to oppose the decree, a move which the South Korean president had to comply with. Calls for the ousting of Yoon soon followed, with his own party members calling for his resignation.

Here’s a look at some of the possible scenarios of how the future of South Korea will look in just a few days:

Yoon’s fate remains uncertain

At first, Yoon will be facing the following two scenarios:

• He resigns from the office

Amid calls from his own party members to step down, there are chances that Yoon might resign from the office. If that happens, the Constitution of South Korea states that the country’s prime minister will take over. In this case, it will be the Prime Minister Han Dong-hoon. However, this takeover comes with a deadline. Han will be able to serve as the country’s “acting president” and is required to call for elections within 60 days.

• The Impeachment proceedings

There are further two possibilities regarding how the impeachment proceedings will play out.

1. If the parliament impeaches the president

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Shortly after the whole martial law debacle, six opposition parties submitted a motion to impeach Yoon on Wednesday. The motion proposed by South Korea’s main opposition party, the Democratic Party, may go to a vote as soon as Friday. It is pertinent to note that once an impeachment motion is introduced in the parliament, voting is to be done within 72 hours.

When it comes to the composition of the parliament, out of the 300-member legislature, 175 lawmakers belong to opposition parties and 108 lawmakers are from Yoon’s People Power Party. Eight lawmakers from the ruling party will have to cross the aisle for an impeachment motion to succeed. Han has already mentioned that the ruling party is heading towards that road.

If the impeachment motion is successful in the parliament, Yoon will be suspended and the case will go to the country’s Constitutional Court. Han will take over in the meantime.

2. What happens if the impeachment motion fails?

If the lawmakers do not get enough votes to remove the president, Yoon will stay in power. However, the whole saga might lead to a political stalemate, with the executive and the legislative branches of the government not supporting each other. This might have a wider impact on the South Korean economy and the country’s wider political landscape.

Constitutional Court in its own pickle

As mentioned before, if the impeachment motion is passed, the case will reach the country’s Constitutional Court. The court will decide whether Yoon is guilty of the crimes that the National Assembly claims he committed and whether they are serious enough to merit impeachment.

The Constitutional Court will have to give the judgment over the matter in 180 days. However, the court is facing its own share of challenges. The South Korean Constitutional Court has three vacancies, with just six judges in office. In usual circumstances, the court needs at least seven justices to make a decision on this matter. However, recently, one of the judges told the Kyunghyang Shinmun newspaper on Thursday that a unanimous decision among the six might be held under a recent rule change. The whole matter is still subjected to debate.

There are two ways how the case will play out in the court:

1. The court finds no grounds to impeach the president

If the Constitutional Court decides that it will not impeach the president, Yoon will be reinstated in office.

2. If the court agrees with the lawmakers

In this situation, Yoon will be impeached and PM Han will take over as the country’s acting president. As soon as this happens, Han will once again have 60 days to call for fresh elections in the country.

Has this ever happened before?

It is important to note that there have been two presidents who have been impeached in the country’s history. They are as follows:

• Park Geun-Hye

Park was impeached in December 2016 after she was accused of colluding with a confidant in an influence-peddling scheme. At that time, the lawmakers accused her of abusing her constitutional powers.

The Constitutional Court eventually confirmed her impeachment, and an election was held in the country in May 2017. Park was later tried separately on criminal charges and was sentenced to 20 years in prison. She eventually served five years of her prison sentence and was released and pardoned in 2021 on medical grounds.

• Roh Moo-hyun

Roh was impeached back in 2004 and was forced out of office for two months before being restored to power by the Constitutional Court.

What will happen to Yoon if he is no longer the president?

Yoon’s presidency has been marred with scandal from the very beginning. Much of it centres around his wife, Kim Keon Hee, who was accused of corruption and influence-peddling - most notably, allegedly accepting a Dior bag from a pastor.

Kim’s dealings soon started coming under the radar this year, and in November, Yoon apologized on behalf of his wife while rejecting calls for an investigation into her activities. Not only this, the botched martial law has attracted more trouble for Yoon.

The South Korean police have launched an investigation into the country’s president over the potential insurrection of chaos that ensued after he called martial law. Woo Jong-soo, the head of the National Investigation Headquarters of the National Police Agency, confirmed that the case had been assigned for investigation during a parliamentary session. So, if Yoon leaves his office, he and his wife can get embroiled in a plethora of legal cases.

Not only this, he can face the same fate as Park and other problematic presidents when he comes out of office. In normal circumstances, Yoon’s term will end in 2027, and the South Korean constitution does not allow for the president to run for office again. Hence, the president may face the same kind of legal scrutiny even after his term ends.

PM Han Duck-soo: The man of the hour

Yoon appointed the 75-year-old veteran lawmaker as the Prime Minister of South Korea in 2022 after he won the election in the same year. Han started his career as a civil servant in the early 1970s. In 1983, he completed his master’s in economics from Harvard University, and in 1984 completed his Ph.D. in economics from Harvard.

Interestingly, Han served as the PM for President Roh from 2007 to 2008. As mentioned before, Roh faced impeachment as well in 2004. Between 2009 and 2012, Han served as South Korea’s ambassador to the United States. As per the reports, Yoon and then-Defense Minister Kim did not inform Han about the imposition of martial law beforehand. This also caused a rift between Han and Yoon.

While Han is obligated to handle things if the president is out of the picture, if elections are to be held in the country, the favourite to become South Korea’s next president is Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-Myung. Hence, it will be interesting to see how this K-drama will unfold.