South China Sea: How defiant China prepares for legal showdown with Philippines

The South China Sea dispute is one of the biggest global conflicts today, involving overlapping claims from multiple countries. At its centre are China’s broad claims, marked by the “nine-dash line,” which are challenged by nations like the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei. This dispute is about more than just territory—it affects regional peace, international laws, and global power struggles.

Who owns South China Sea legally

The 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague marked a significant moment in the South China Sea dispute. According to the South China Morning Post, the PCA declared that China’s “nine-dash line” claims had no legal basis under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

The ruling upheld the Philippines’ sovereign rights over areas within its exclusive economic zone (EEZ), including Scarborough Shoal and parts of the Spratly Islands. It also determined that some features claimed by China were reefs or rocks, not islands capable of generating extended maritime zones.

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Furthermore, the tribunal found that China’s large-scale land reclamation and construction activities had caused severe harm to the marine environment violating its obligations under UNCLOS. Despite this decision, China outrightly rejected the ruling, refusing to take part in the arbitration process and continuing its activities in the contested waters.

China pushes, the Philippines pushes back

Manila has taken a stronger stance against China’s actions under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. According to the Financial Times, Andres Centino, the Philippine presidential assistant on maritime concerns announced plans to file a “foolproof, solid case” against Beijing.

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Manila’s potential legal actions could include sovereignty claims, environmental lawsuits and cases addressing harassment of Philippine vessels. These efforts, as reported, may draw significant international attention and support, especially given the precedent set by the 2016 ruling.

Tensions have also risen in the disputed waters. In August alone, there were six confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coastguards near Scarborough Shoal and Sabina Shoal, areas within the Philippines’ EEZ but claimed by China.

Al Jazeera reported incidents involving vessel ramming, water cannon use and physical altercations highlighting the conflict’s intensity. While China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the Philippines of “illegal intrusions,” Manila insisted its actions complied with international law.

It’s also about geostrategic games

The South China Sea is important not only for regional politics but also for global trade and resources. With an estimated $3.4 trillion in annual trade passing through its waters, the region is a vital economic route.

Additionally, the South China Sea is rich in fishing resources and has large untapped hydrocarbon reserves including about 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Control over this region would give China major economic and strategic benefits such as energy security and the power to block foreign military forces from entering the area.

The United States, under a mutual defence treaty with the Philippines, has taken a more active role in the dispute. Washington has promised to defend Philippine vessels and personnel against attacks in the South China Sea, a position that China sees as provocative.

China ready for legal battles as well

As reported by the South China Morning Post, Zheng Zhihua, an associate professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, stressed the need for China to develop top legal experts who can represent the country in international courts. He warned that the Philippines’ new arbitration efforts could draw more global attention to Beijing’s actions, which could weaken China’s position.

While the 2016 PCA ruling is a major decision supporting international law, it is difficult to enforce because of China’s refusal to follow it. For the Philippines and other countries involved, using legal channels is one way to challenge China’s control, but it comes with the risk of making tensions worse.