Russian losses twice than Ukraine’s as casualties near 2 million: Study

Russia has lost twice as many soldiers as Ukraine, with total casualties in the ongoing war expected to reach 2 million this spring, according to a study by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

When Russia launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, President Vladimir Putin had expected to overrun the country within weeks. But Russia has been bogged down in a grinding war of attrition for nearly four years now.

The CSIS has assessed that Russia has so far suffered around 1.2 million casualties whereas Ukraine has suffered around 600,000.

These casualties include those who have been killed and injured, as well as personnel who have gone missing in action.

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As for the death toll, the CSIS has assessed that Russia has lost 325,000 personnel and Ukraine has lost 100,000 to 140,000 soldiers.

As Russia is believed to frequently undercount its losses, and Ukraine does not report its losses, it is difficult to accurately assess the true extent of casualties. The CSIS has based its estimate on data from American and British governments, among other sources.

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Throughout the war, Russia has resorted to frontal, meat-grinder assaults that have resulted in severe losses.

Since January 2024, Russia has captured just 1.5 per cent of Ukrainian territory, and its casualties averaged 35,000 per month last year, according to the CSIS.

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Over the past two years, Russia has advanced at an average rate of 15 to 70 metres per day in its most prominent offensives, which is slower than almost any major offensive campaign in any war in nearly a century, as per the CSIS.

Overall, Russia has captured around 20 per cent of Ukrainian land, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The Ukrainian land under Russian occupation includes around 8 per cent of the territory it had seized before 2022, with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the occupation of Donbas where it had pursued a low-intensity conflict between 2014 and 2022.

Despite such losses, Russia has been able to maintain its troop levels throughout the war through unprecedented conscription, the mobilisation of prisoners and debtors, the recruitment of foreign mercenaries, and the deployment of several thousand North Korean soldiers.

When Russia launched the full-scale invasion, its population was over three times Ukraine’s and its military nearly five times larger.

Despite suffering far fewer casualties than Russia, Ukraine has faced a near‑constant shortage of soldiers as it has a smaller population and fewer people it can forcibly mobilise. Moreover, it does not have an ally like North Korea that would send thousands of soldiers to the battlefield.