 "Ajit Pawar’s death shakes Maharashtra politics. What could be the fallout?")
Ajit Pawar’s death has shaken Maharashtra politics.
The demise of the leader of the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) in a tragic plane crash today (January 28) in Pune’s Baramati, alongside four others, has left many political observers shocked. The government of Maharashtra has announced three days of mourning over the death of the Deputy Chief Minister. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has condoled Ajit’s death.
“Shri Ajit Pawar Ji was a leader of the people, having a strong grassroots-level connect. He was widely respected as a hardworking personality at the forefront of serving the people of Maharashtra,” Modi wrote on social media. “His understanding of administrative matters and passion for empowering the poor and downtrodden were also noteworthy.”
But what does this mean for politics in Maharashtra? Let’s take a closer look.
A brief look at the political situation
First, let’s briefly examine the political situation in Maharashtra.The Mahayuti alliance has been in power in Maharashtra since 2024. The alliance comprises the BJP, as well as the Eknath Shinde faction of Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
While the BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis has been running the Maharashtra government as Chief Minister, Shinde and Ajit have been Deputy Chief Ministers. Shinde previously led a split from the Shiv Sena in 2022, while Ajit’s faction broke off from the Sharad Pawar NCP in July 2023.
The Election Commission of India (ECI) in 2024 had recognised Ajit’s faction as the ‘real NCP’, giving it both the name and the symbol. The ECI similarly did so for the Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena in 2023 – which was backed up by the Maharashtra Assembly Speaker. The Uddhav Thackeray version of the Shiv Sena, known as the Shiv Sena (UBT), has appealed the ECI’s decision in the Supreme Court.
Interestingly, the Ajit faction of the NCP and the Pawar faction of the NCP joined hands for the recent 2026 Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad municipal polls.
What happens in Maharashtra now?
With Ajit’s death, one of the posts of Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister has fallen vacant. It raises questions about the potential future of the Mahayuti coalition and both NCP factions in Maharashtra. The NCP currently has 41 MLAs within the government, the Shinde Sena has 57 seats, and the BJP has 132 seats.
According to India Today, Ajit was one of the power centres in Maharashtra. The piece noted how Ajit was the longest-serving Deputy Chief Minister in the state and how he previously served under both the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi governments. Ajit served as Deputy Chief Minister under as diverse a group as Prithviraj Chavan, Uddhav Thackeray, Eknath Shinde, and Devendra Fadnavis.
Ajit, as one recalls, previously split from the NCP in 2019 in a dramatic event. Ajit was sworn in as Deputy Chief Minister in the BJP government. However, he dramatically returned to the NCP, causing the short-lived government in Maharashtra to fall after just three days.
According to the Indian Express, the development deals both a personal and political blow to Fadnavis, a close friend and ally of Ajit.
“Ajit Pawar joining the NDA was entirely a Fadnavis move. The BJP’s central leadership was not so pleased about it. In fact, he joined the NDA a few days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi called him out. The BJP leadership was always keen to have Sharad Pawar in their camp,” a BJP source told the newspaper.
The Maharashtra Chief Minister is said to have leaned on Ajit to keep Shinde, who is known to be a hard bargainer, on side. According to the piece, Ajit’s death undercuts Fadnavis and the BJP’s leverage against Shinde. Some close to Shinde believed he would have been the Chief Minister if not for the Ajit–Fadnavis combine.
What happens to NCP?
As per India Today, some have argued that the recent tie-up between the two NCP factions for the local body polls was a sign that a possible rapprochement was on the cards. Ajit in December was quoted as saying by NDTV, “The workers of both parties want to unite. The two NCPs are together now. All tensions in our family have ended.”
However, others argue this was largely a marriage of convenience aimed at trying to limit the expansion of the BJP and not, by any means, a melding back of the two political factions.
Ajit’s death raises fresh questions for the Mahayuti. Does someone else from the Ajit faction step up and become Deputy Chief Minister alongside Shinde? The outlet noted how Ajit’s nephew Rohit Pawar, an MLA from the Karjat–Jamkhed constituency, is still not a heavyweight leader. Rohit’s wife, Sunetra Pawar, is a Rajya Sabha MP.
Ajit’s sons Parth and Jay Pawar are not mass leaders either. Parth lost while fighting Lok Sabha polls from Maharashtra’s Maval constituency, while Jay has kept a distance from politics.
Will the Ajit NCP be sidelined within the Mahayuti alliance? Or is a reunion with the Pawar NCP on the cards? Sharad himself is set to retire after the end of his Rajya Sabha tenure. Supriya Sule has been projected more as the NCP’s Delhi face rather than a major political leader in Maharashtra. Will Sharad, at 83 years old, reverse his decision? Will he try to bring the two factions back together? Sources told The Indian Express such a development could hurt the BJP in Maharashtra.
On the other hand, if Sharad joins the NDA fold, it could also be a potential blow to Fadnavis himself.
“There has always been a Pawar in Maharashtra politics. Now there are two possibilities – the entire clan can come together. They were almost there before Ajit’s plane crash. The two NCPs were almost wiped out in the local body polls. But now, if the merger happens, Sharad Pawar will be calling the shots entirely. If he joins the NDA, Fadnavis will lose his pre-eminent position. And if senior Pawar decides to remain in the Opposition INDIA bloc and gain traction, it may also not be good for Fadnavis because he cannot ignore Shinde then,” said the source.
Only time will tell how the political scene in Maharashtra shakes out as a result of this tragedy.
With inputs from agencies
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