Russia losing 1,000 soldiers a day, economy hurting: What Ukraine deal may bring to Moscow

Russia and the US are currently holding meetings in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh to resolve the Ukraine war, but there is no sign of a representative from Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly said there can be no peace deals without his country’s participation. Despite this, Moscow has sent Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to meet US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The meeting takes place just a month after US President Donald Trump assumed office, marking a significant shift from Washington’s stance under former President Joe Biden, who avoided public engagements, believing Russia was not genuinely committed to ending the Ukraine war.

A lot is at stake for Russia and these talks could prove beneficial for Moscow which has set more goals from the war than just making territorial advances. Russia is suffering nearly 1,000 casualties per day and its economy is dwindling due to the enormous war spending. All of these issues can possibly find a solution from the US-Russia talks taking place in Riyadh currently.

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Here’s a look at how the peace deal can cater to Russia:

Territorial gains

According to a report by the New York Times, with limited ways to counter Russia’s recent advances on the battlefield, Ukraine may have to make difficult concessions in any potential agreement. This could be perceived as Trump legitimizing Putin’s aggression.

While Kyiv has been steadfast in its stipulation that it will never recognise Russian claims over its land or an alteration of the border, the best bet is to freeze the fighting for now and let Moscow keep control of the lands it has already captured. Ukraine and the West can refuse to formally recognise Russia’s territorial claims and an agreement can guarantee that any land disputes will be resolved peacefully in the coming years.

Russia wants its own security guarantees

Zelenskyy has floated the plan of deploying 200,000 foreign troops to safeguard any future ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

At the same time, Russia seeks its own “security guarantees” to prevent Ukraine from rebuilding its military and attempting to reclaim occupied territories. It aims to limit the size of Ukraine’s armed forces and prohibit the presence of foreign troops.

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However, experts think that this safety blanket plan is the trickiest part of any negotiation between the two warring parties. A group of experts, led by Cambridge international law professor Marc Weller, an expert in peace negotiations, has drafted a proposed agreement. It suggests a compromise involving the deployment of a small international force of 7,500 personnel from nations mutually acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine to maintain peace along the front line.

Putin wants NATO to stop expanding eastward

Russian President Vladimir Putin has more gains in mind than just grabbing Ukrainian lands. Days before he finally invaded Ukraine in 2022, Putin had given an ultimatum to NATO to stop advancing further eastward in Europe.

However, US allies are expected to contend that scaling back NATO’s presence in Europe would heighten the threat of a Russian invasion of nations like Poland and the Baltic states. However, Trump may be open to such an arrangement due to his scepticism toward American military commitments overseas.

During the 2022 peace negotiations, Russian representatives also pushed to undermine Ukrainian identity, insisting that Russian be recognised as an official language and that places no longer be named after Ukrainian independence fighters.

With inputs from agencies