 "Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gestures during a joint press conference with US President Donald Trump at the White House in Washington, DC, US, February 13, 2025. File Image/Reuters")
The third day of the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi kicked off on Wednesday (March 18).
One of the sessions held was titled “Pole Vaults: The Revanchist West and a Rising South.” The panel aimed to dissect the fresh “problems” arising as the United States seeks to redefine its position in global engagement through assertive unilateralism.
The discussion, moderated by Ken Jimbo, head of the Institute of Geoeconomics in Japan, focused on the expectations of transatlantic partners and the aspirations of an increasingly confident Global South.
The panel comprised Alexander Dynkin, president of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia; Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, founder and president of the Emirates Policy Center, United Arab Emirates; Karim El Aynaoui, executive president of the Policy Center for the New South, Morocco; Manjeet Kripalani, executive director of Gateway House, India and; Paolo Magri, managing director and president of the Advisory Board at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies, Italy.
The backdrop of the American G20 presidency provides an important context to explore how US impulses might function in a multipolar world and whether traditional transatlantic partnerships can adapt while accommodating emerging voices and powers.
Russia makes strides amid a Trump presidency
Dynkin opened the discussion by praising the fast-paced developments vis-à-vis the pecae deal negotiations on Russia’s war in Ukraine , stating, “Two months ago, we could not dream about that,” referring to the second Trump presidency.
He highlighted the recent phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Putin , noting, “There were some conversations for non-proliferation and the Black Sea negotiations, and that is a lot for a 90-minute conversation.”
Putin has agreed to an initial ceasefire on energy infrastructure in Ukraine for the next 30 days.
Dynkin highlighted Moscow’s perspective in a multipolar world, asserting, “There will be four major powers that will be China, US, Russia, and India, not Europe for the time being.”
He also stated, “The peace process will continue, it can’t happen overnight, because there are so many problems.”
Highlighting the Trump presidency again, he said, “The Trump presidency is an opportunity for new development for Europe, for Ukraine.”
Stating Europe’s diminishing role in the world order , he opined, “Europe was the institutional and cultural role model for Russia but not anymore and that is Europe’s choice, not Russia.”
Putting a spotlight on how countries in the Gulf are becoming the preferable location to hold meeting between two opposing parties , he said, “I believe Gulf states are an important place to have resolution and financial agreements.”
The Gulf feels the need for balance
Al-Ketbi addressed the challenges posed by the Trump administration, remarking, “I think Trump is a challenge for the whole world.” However, she noted, “The Gulf has the least … challenge from Trump.”
She spoke about global technological competition, saying, “Look, if you are one who is going to buy the same software that the Americans are giving you for 100,000 dollars, but the Chinese are giving you 100 dollars, where will you take it?”
Al-Ketbi pointed out the Gulf’s evolving strategic alignments: “The Gulf traditionally are American allies. Economically they are with China, but now with AI they are moving towards the US.” She also called for collective action in response to unilateralism:
“In face of US unilateralism, the whole world, mainly the Global South, should come together in an alliance, like the BRICS etc.” Reflecting on the US-led shift in Western foreign policy, she noted, “It is shaking the global order and the trust that the Global South has in the order.”
Responding to Trump’s remarks about Greenland and the US changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico , she cautioned, “The concept of annexation of Greenland and renaming places, it emboldens people with the same Trump mentality, like Netanyahu [Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu].”
Addressing alliances beyond the West, she stated, “You also need to look at other alliances, because the world is not in the West, there are other opportunities that can balance the West.”
Time for Africa to step in?
El Aynaoui highlighted Africa’s experience when dealing with global affairs, saying, “People tend to forget the consequences of foreign interference in Africa or in the Middle East.”
He discussed the impact of the war in Ukraine on Europe: “For advanced economies, Europeans are clearly the losers in a way for the time being.”
“It is a wake up call for Europe and it is a good wake up call.”
He advocated for strong governance, stating, “Countries, if they can, should focus on their internal politics because it is important to have a solid internal front as people are asking for more good governance in fields like education, climate change.”
Looking ahead, he said, “I think Africa is going to be open to engage with the world and find some sort of equilibrium.” On Global South unity, he suggested that the idea however great would be hard to implement in the long run.
India has been on the track for a while now
Manjeet Kripalani spoke about India’s unique geopolitical position, highlighting history, she said India has always been known about strategic autonomy for a while and is confident in navigating the changing world.
She called for a reevaluation of past alliances, stating, “We need to look again at the Non-Aligned Movement because that was also the Global South.”
“The West used to set the rules but not they have understood that things are not the same…"
She highlighted India’s strengths, remarking, “We are 1.4 billion and we are not China.” Discussing India’s technological outreach, she noted, “We do not have the beautiful gardens of Europe, but we have brilliant virtual infrastructure.”
Speaking about the obsolete nature of alliance and the emergence of partnerships, she opined, “It’s good for the world to understand that it is not necessary now, like the G7 that talks about alliances, it is much easier and efficient to have partnerships.”
Kripalani also pointed to Africa’s role in global stability, stating, “Africa has a long history of mediating disputes within itself, and they should be taken seriously.”
She cited the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) as an example of successful Global South-West collaboration. The positive impact of the IMEC corridor on the Indian economy is indisputable.
How Europe will fair in the long term
Paolo Magri analysed Europe’s economic and political position, observing, “Europe, in the short term, is losing economically but gaining politically.” He linked this shift to rising energy prices and changing priorities:
“We are clearly moving from the traditional European welfare and now to warfare, and we need money for that.”
He added, “What happened with Putin and what may happen with Trump, it made us realise that it is time to change.”
Magri said that in the medium to long term, Europe might see economic gains but political losses. He pointed to Germany’s decision yesterday to ease the debt brake allows for a significant investment, which will help narrow — though not entirely close — the technological gap over time.
However, politically, funds traditionally allocated to the EU could instead be directed toward parties with differing ideologies, potentially backed by figures like Elon Musk .
Magri weighed the financial and trade implications of shifting global alliances: “Probably not” when it comes to financial institutions incorporating the Global South, but “in trade with Global South, my answer is yes, with new trade partnerships with the Philippines, India, etc. There will be a free approach by EU nations now.”
Throughout the discussion, panellists addressed critical questions about the future of global governance: the impact of unilateral actions, the weaponisation of geography and the evolution of transatlantic partnerships in a multipolar world.
The session underlined the necessity for inclusive dialogues and equitable partnerships to ensure emerging powers have a significant role in shaping global governance.
A time for new allies and to look South
The United States, under Trump’s administration, has exhibited growing hostility toward multilateralism. This shift poses challenges for global cooperation on issues like climate change, trade and security.
In context, South Africa, as the current G20 president, faces the task of navigating these tensions to achieve consensus on vital global matters. Diplomatic relations between the US and South Africa have been strained , exemplified by the recent expulsion of South Africa’s ambassador to the US .
In response to US policies, the European Union has announced a $5.1 billion investment in South Africa to support green energy initiatives and vaccine production.
Strategies for other nations to navigate US exceptionalism in collaborative global governance and ensure that emerging players have a seat at the table in shaping a future global order is going to be a focal point, for the distant future.
Raisina Dialogue is a premier conference on geopolitics and geo-economics hosted by the Observer Research Foundation in collaboration with India’s Ministry of External Affairs.
Firstpost has partnered with the Raisina Dialogue to bring exclusive content to its viewers and readers.The event, inaugurated by Modi on March 17, featured New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon as the chief guest and keynote speaker.
Anmol is a Senior Sub-Editor with Firstpost. He likes to cover stories that intrigue him, generally revolving around international polity, Indian foreign policy, human interest, environment and even the politically-charged election cycles in India. He has far too many disparate interests with a constant itch for travel. Having visited fourteen states in the Indian subcontinent, he is always on the lookout for opportunities to add more to the list. He enjoys watching Football, Tennis and F1 purely as a sports enthusiast.