Question stopping COP29 from a climate deal: How much wealthy nations are willing to pay

A new draft text released early Thursday which will form the basis of any deal reached at United Nations climate talks on money for developing countries to transition to clean energy and adapt to climate change left out a crucial sticking point: how much wealthy nations will pay.

Negotiators at the talks — known as COP29 — in Baku, Azerbaijan, are trying to close the gap between the $1.3 trillion the developing world says is needed in climate finance and the few hundred billion that richer nations have been prepared to pay.

Ali Mohamed, chair of the African Group of Negotiators told The Associated Press Thursday that how much money is on the table “is most critical” to finding a deal, and that’s what’s missing from the draft deal.

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The draft text “presents two extreme ends of the aisle without much in between,” said Li Shuo, Asia Society Policy Institute Director. “Other than capturing the ground standing of both sides, this text hardly does anything more."

Mohamed Adow, director of the think tank Power Shift Africa, expressed disappointment in the draft. “We came here to talk about money. The way you measure money is with numbers. We need a cheque but all we have right now is a blank piece of paper,” he said.

Independent experts say that at least $1 trillion is needed in finance to help transition away from planet-warming fossil fuels and toward clean energy like solar and wind, better adapt to the effects of climate change and pay for losses and damages caused by extreme weather.

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There’s a lot of work left to do

There are three big parts of the issue where negotiators need to find agreement: How big the numbers are, how much is grants or loans, and who contributes.

Rob Moore, Associate Director at European think tank E3G said that “negotiators need to make a huge amount of progress over the next few days,” particularly on the issue of how much.

Official observers of the talks from the International Institute of Sustainable Development who are allowed to sit in on the closed meetings reported that negotiators have now agreed on not expanding the list of countries that will contribute to global climate funds — at least at these talks. Linda Kalcher, of the think tank Strategic Partnerships, said on the question of grants or loans, the draft text suggests “the need for grants and better access to finance."

She added that the lack of numbers in the draft text could be a “bluff.” The COP29 presidency, which prepares the texts “should know more … than what they put on the table,” she said.

Andreas Sieber, associate director of global policy and campaigns at the environmental group 350.org said the text handed down this morning included a range of options, some bad, some good. “I’m pretty nervous that there are still so many outstanding options. There is a lot to be decided by ministers,” he said.

But Iskander Erzini Vernoit, director of Moroccan climate think-tank Imal Initiative for Climate and Development, said he was “at a loss for words at how disappointed we are at this stage to have come this far without serious numbers on the table and serious engagement from the developed countries."

He said that some developed nations “are slowly waking up” to the fact that keeping warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times will require over a trillion dollars in finance. “But many are still asleep at the wheel,” he said.

Other areas that are being negotiated include commitments to slash planet-warming fossil fuels and how to adapt to climate change. But they’ve also seen little movement despite new draft deals on those issues also being published overnight, observers say.

Harry Camilleri, a researcher at E3G, said the draft text on slashing fossil fuels “is light on substance.” To move forward, countries will need to pledge ambitious updates to their national climate goals, he said.

But David Tong, a campaign manager at climate advocacy group Oil Change International said “ambition has gone missing” from that draft deal.

(Except the headline, this story has not been edited by Firstpost staff.)