Putin-Trump effect? Majority Brexit voters now want ‘free movement’ single European market

In a recent survey, a majority of Britons who voted for Brexit, snapping their formal integration ties with the European Union, said they were ready to return to free movement in exchange for access to a single European market. The cross-Europe study also found a similar sentiment on the other side of the Brexit — EU member states.

An apparent U-turn in the sentiments of the Brexit voters comes in the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine — the war is nearing its third anniversary — and the return of Donald Trump to the White House to “Make America Great Again”, a campaign slogan that also takes aim at financial ties between the US and Europe, including the idea of pushing a reset button on the Nato.

Conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank, the survey polled more than 9,000 people across the UK and the five most populous EU members — Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland — and concluded that “there is a remarkable consensus on both sides of the Channel that the time is ripe for a reassessment of EU-UK relations”.

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Held after Trump’s election win in November, the ECFR poll found the strongest enthusiasm for renewed ties were in Britain, with 54 per cent Britons who voted to leave the EU said in exchange for single market access they would now accept full free movement for cross-English Channel citizens to travel, live and work without the barriers of borders.

The survey results could also be an impact of the fact that there has been a surge in net migration to the UK after 2016. This signals that Brexit is no longer seen as the answer to immigration, the ECFR report suggested.

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Among all UK voters, 68 per cent of respondents backed free movement in exchange for single market access. Only 19 per cent opposed the idea. Interestingly, the 44 per cent of the Reform UK party supporters also backed the idea.

The ECFR report suggested that the UK and EU should “go big and go fast” in restoring links. “The EU and the UK are both very vulnerable to prevailing global events and a reset of relations is the single most effective way to make both sides stronger,” it said.

On the EU side, 45 per cent of Germans surveyed said they wanted closer relations with the UK. It was 44 per cent for Poles, 41 per cent among Spaniards, 40 per cent for Italians and 34 per cent among French respondents.

The ECFR report said, “It is important to recognise that Brexit and the UK-EU future relationship matters more to UK respondents than to citizens of other states. But there is broad permission from European publics to recast relations.”

These cross-Europe sentiments could be directly linked to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine that has got all of Europe concerned as the ongoing 35-month-long war has increased financial burdens on several countries and triggered an energy insecurity at household levels.

At the same time, the incoming of Trump, with his MAGA push, means Europe could face higher tariffs in its trade with America and Nato member states of Europe will have to increase their defence budgets to meet the conditions set by the US president-elect.