Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in China: What it means for India-Bangladesh relations

As the Bangladesh Biman special flight carrying Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina departs from Dhaka at 11 am (Bangladesh time) and lands at Beijing International Airport at 6 pm (local time), all eyes will be on her until she leaves China on July 11 and returns to Dhaka at 2 pm.

While bilateral visits are common between neighbouring countries, any leader’s visit to China often raises speculations and concerns. Prime Minister Hasina’s visit is no exception, particularly because it is of significant interest to India. The developments over these four days could potentially reshape India’s relationships with both China and Bangladesh. This marks Prime Minister Hasina’s fifth visit to China and her first since securing a fourth consecutive term in office. India will closely monitor what the elevation of Bangladesh-China bilateral relations to a “new level” means for its own strategic interests.

What’s on the agenda

At least 20 memorandums of understanding are expected to be signed, covering areas such as economic and banking, trade and investment, digital economy, infrastructure development, disaster management, construction of the sixth and ninth Bangladesh-China friendship bridges, agricultural exports, and enhancing people-to-people connectivity.

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According to The Dhaka Tribune, Bangladesh Foreign Minister Hasan Mahmud, at a curtain-raiser briefing, said that China is committed to being a key partner in Bangladesh’s infrastructure and economic development. He expressed hope that the visit would be fruitful, enhancing strategic relations. Mahmud highlighted Bangladesh’s intention to seek China’s assistance in investment, trade, financial aid, and the repatriation of Rohingyas, while continuing to support China in the global arena.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning announced that China is ready to work with Bangladesh to uphold the spirit of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, deepen political mutual trust, align development strategies, advance high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, and elevate bilateral relations.

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Currently, there are no loan agreements to be signed, although the topic may arise during discussions. Bangladesh is aware of the risks associated with Chinese loans. Speculations had suggested that Bangladesh might seek substantial loans to bolster its dwindling foreign reserves, with discussions centred on a $5 billion loan in Yuan for trade facilitation, but terms and conditions have yet to be agreed upon.

Regarding the Teesta river project, Foreign Minister Mahmud assured that India’s concerns would be taken into account if China raises the issue. He emphasised that India had proposed joint river management and planned to send a technical team to collaborate with Bangladesh’s team. China has also proposed involvement, but any discussion will consider Bangladesh’s shared interests with India. Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen recently stated that Beijing respects Bangladesh’s decision in this matter, potentially easing India’s worries.

Moreover, Bangladesh is unlikely to join China’s Global Development Initiative at this time.

The outcomes of Prime Minister Hasina’s meetings with President Xi Jinping, particularly the joint statements, will be closely scrutinised to gauge the future trajectory of Bangladesh-China relations.

India is watching

Both China and Bangladesh are aware that India is closely monitoring Prime Minister Hasina’s visit to China.

Chinese government mouthpiece The Global Times noted that Indian media are highlighting the visit, which follows closely after Hasina attended Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony on July 4. The Indian media have emphasised potential Chinese investments in Bangladesh under the Belt and Road Initiative, noting that Bangladesh is the second-largest recipient of Chinese investment after Pakistan.

The Global Times accused Indian politicians and media of questioning China’s intentions, asserting that the tangible benefits of China’s BRI cooperation with Bangladesh and Pakistan speak for themselves.

Historically, China opposed the creation of Bangladesh in 1971 and used its UN Security Council veto to block its membership on several occasions. China recognised Bangladesh as an independent country on August 31, 1975, weeks after the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

During President Xi’s 2016 visit to Dhaka, the two countries upgraded their relationship to a “Strategic Cooperation Partnership.”

Analysts believe Prime Minister Hasina’s consecutive visits to India and China are an effort to balance relations between the two Asian powers. The key question remains how resolute Prime Minister Hasina will be in resisting any Chinese attempts that might undermine Bangladesh’s ties with India.