Portugal votes in third election in three years; centre-right leads polls but falls short of majority

Portuguese voters cast their ballots on Sunday in the country’s third general election in three years, with Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) projected to emerge ahead but fall short of a governing majority.

Final opinion polls suggest the AD is set to improve on its 2024 performance and surpass the ruling Socialist Party (PS) in vote share. However, it is still expected to secure fewer than the 116 seats required for a majority in Portugal’s 230-seat parliament.

The far-right Chega party is once again poised to come in third, positioning itself as a potential kingmaker. Yet, Prime Minister Montenegro has maintained he will not enter into a governing alliance with the populist group.

The election, taking place in an EU nation of roughly 10 million people, comes amid heightened global trade tensions and a broader European push to strengthen collective defence capabilities.

Addressing supporters at a final campaign rally in Lisbon on Friday, Montenegro appealed for a stronger mandate, saying it was essential for Portugal to navigate “geopolitical turmoil” effectively.

“We have to do our part at home and we have to be part of the solutions abroad, in Europe and in the world. And for that we need a strong government,” he said.

After he cast his ballot in the northern town of Espinho, Montenegro said he was “very confident” that the election would result in greater “stability”.

But Maria Lopes, a 63-year-old local council employee, said she was not optimistic that this ballot would produce a different outcome.

“It’s going to be difficult. Unfortunately, I don’t think things are going to change,” she said as she voted in Almada, a city south of Lisbon known for its stunning views of the Portuguese capital.

Turnout at noon stood at 25.56 percent, up from 25.21 percent in 2024, the interior ministry said.Sunday’s election was called after Montenegro, a 52-year-old lawyer, lost a parliamentary vote of confidence in March.

He had proposed the confidence vote himself following accusations of conflicts of interest stemming from his consultancy business.

The company had several clients that held government contracts.

Montenegro has denied wrongdoing, saying he has not been involved in the running of the consultancy.

Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos, a 48-year-old economist, has accused Montenegro of engineering the election “to avoid explaining himself” about the firm to a parliamentary enquiry.

Surveys show many voters were not troubled by the case.

“It hasn’t really had the dimension that the opposition would have hoped for in the campaign,” said University of Lisbon political scientist Felipa Raimundo.

Montenegro has cut income taxes for young people, raised pensions and toughened immigration policy, vowing to put an end to what he called a “wide-open doors” policy.

Under a previous Socialist government, Portugal became one of Europe’s most open countries for immigrants.

Between 2017 and 2024, the number of foreigners living in the country quadrupled, reaching about 15 percent of the total population.

Montenegro’s government announced during the campaign the expulsion of some 18,000 irregular immigrants, leading to accusations it was pandering to far-right voters.

Tiago Manso, a 33-year-old economist, applauded the government’s moves to cut taxes for youths and restrict immigration, saying that the country’s struggling public services where unable to cope with the influx.

“If the country doesn’t create new schools, new hospitals, it can’t keep its doors open to everyone,” he told AFP after voting for the AD in central Lisbon.

Like other far-right parties that have gained ground across Europe, Chega has tapped into hostility to immigration and concerns over crime.

But Chega has also faced embarrassment, including allegations that one of its lawmakers repeatedly stole luggage from airport carousels and sold the contents online.

Its leader, 42-year-old former football commentator Andre Ventura, abruptly left two rallies due to stomach pain and was rushed to hospital both times last week.

Speaking to reporters after casting his ballot, he said he felt better and urged anyone “who’s upset, who wants change” to go and vote.

With inputs from agencies