 "Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton")
Much against the ongoing speculation that US President Donald Trump is rethinking the US’s strategic position on India and Pakistan, his former National Security Adviser Ambassador John Bolton does not see it as a long-term review of America’s policy. In an exclusive conversation with Firstpost’s Bhagyasree Sengupta, Bolton said Trump’s sudden courting of Pakistan Army chief Asim Munir, and his tariff tirade against India have nothing to do with “strategic rethinking”.
Bolton asserts that the apparent change in the US’s ties with India and Pakistan is just about his ambition to win a Nobel Peace Prize .
In just a few days, India-US ties deteriorated significantly thanks sudden high tariffs imposed by Trump on Indian goods. On July 30, Trump announced a 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports, effective from August 7. He argued that India is engaging in unfair trade practices by imposing barriers to market access, particularly in agriculture and dairy.
However, a day before the August 7 deadline, Trump signed an executive order, announcing an additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports . This is explicitly linked to India’s continued purchase of crude oil from Russia amid the war in Ukraine.
This shocked many in India. Not only because India had strong ties with the US for decades, but also because the issue of India buying Russian oil was never brought up during the first six months of Trump 2.0 . New Delhi soon called out the double standards , emphasising that it is China which buys more oil from Russia than India, and highlighting how the US still engage in trade with Russia without any such tariffs.
While all this was happening, New Delhi also started to pay attention to the growing proximity between Trump and Pakistani Army chief Asim Munir . The Pakistani field marshal has been to the US twice in the past two months. What was concerning was the fact that these visits came soon after the four-day military escalation between India and Pakistan. Munir eventually went on to use American soil to make nuclear threats to India .
Impact Shorts
More ShortsFirstpost spoke to Ambassador Bolton, remains the longest-serving NSA in the Trump administration having served in the office from April 2018 to September 2019, understand what goes in Trump’s mind when he takes such disruptive foreign policy deicisons. Bolton has also served as the US Ambassador to the United Nations. Here’s what he has to say on the matter:
Imposing tariffs on India, holding summit with Russia
When asked if he was surprised by the sudden surge in tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Indian goods, Ambassador Bolton called out the duplicity of standards in that regard.
“Well, I think there are a lot of things that are very difficult to explain about what Trump’s been doing. First, by all the reporting, which of course comes from leaks from both the US side and the Indian side, the two countries were very close to an agreement on tariffs. When Trump, sort of on his own, decided to go ahead and put the figure at 25 per cent, which is relatively high compared to some other agreements, higher than Pakistan, higher than Bangladesh, no explanation for that,” He said.
“Coming on very quickly was another 25 per cent imposed on Indian exports to the US because of the purchase of Russian oil and gas . Yet at the same time, within days, Trump was agreeing to a summit meeting with Putin in Alaska this coming Friday and not proceeding with his threat to impose tariffs on Russia or put further sanctions on Russia.”
“During all this time, no sanctions were imposed on China for its even larger purchases of Russian oil and gas. So I think it’s just typical of the confusion in the way Trump does business. But it’s going to cause, I think, severe difficulties between the US and India at a time when we should be doing exactly the opposite,” he told Firstpost.
Trump tariffs India: Why now?
It has been over six months since Trump returned to the White House, and not once has the issue of India purchasing oil from Russia been brought up. When asked about the timing of the call, Bolton noted that the move had something to do with Trump’s inability to reach a ceasefire in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war .
“Well, for most of the first six months, what Trump was trying to do was use what he thought was his friendship with Vladimir Putin to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine. Now I’ll just tell you from my own experience,” Ambassador Bolton explained.
“Putin doesn’t see Trump as his friend. He sees them as somebody that he thinks he can manipulate in true, true fashion of a former KGB agent. And I think he’s been pretty successful with it. But at some point toward the end of the first six months, whether intentionally or unintentionally, I think Putin pushed Trump a little too far, and Trump concluded that Putin wasn’t interested in a ceasefire.”
“That’s what angered him. He threatened tariffs on Russian exports to the US and secondary sanctions or tariffs on countries that were buying Russian oil and gas. So all of these issues with the secondary sanctions have arisen within the past 30 or 45 days,” he explained.
Was a pressure mounting on Trump in the US Congress?
While speaking to Firstpost, Bolton noted that there was a legislation that was floating in the US Congress that proposed as high as 500 per cent tariffs and even greater secondary sanctions on countries that buy oil and gas from Russia.
“That [the legislation] was being pushed in Congress. But Trump never went forward with that. So I think the sanctions against India, the secondary tariffs, were really in part in an effort by Trump to keep control of the situation and not allow what Congress was doing to interfere,” Bolton said.
However, the former American NSA pointed out that even Trump could not keep control of conflicting priorities he was facing, i.e. how to stop the war in Ukraine and how to develop better trade ties and overall relationship with India.
“He couldn’t make a decision between his priorities, and I think that’s why India was being in effect singled out, not even Russia or China being sanctioned, just India. I just think it’s typical of Trump’s decision-making capabilities,” Bolton told Firstpost.
Is Trump holding grudges against India?
For over 27 times, Trump has taken credit for the ceasefire between India and Pakistan following the 4-day military escalation between the two nuclear-powered nations. However, India has maintained that the ceasefire between India and Pakistan was a bilateral decision and the US was not involved.
When asked if Trump is holding grudges because of India’s denial on the matter, Bolton said he might not care that much about it. “Well, it could be. I’m not sure he cares that much about what anybody’s saying about the escalation after the terrorist attack in Kashmir, because it is part of Trump’s campaign to get the Nobel Peace Prize.”
“I mean, he cites stopping a war between Serbia and Kosovo, which nobody in Serbia or Kosovo knew was starting or had happened, and several other things like that. I don’t think it’s so much a grudge against India in that regard.”
“I think he just loses sight of what he’s doing, and he focuses on one thing at a time. He makes one decision at a time and doesn’t consider the consequences,” he added.
Bolton admitted that even he was shocked by the Trump tariffs on India, given Trump’s good relationship with the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.
“I thought Trump had a good relationship with Modi. So it just goes to show even in Trump’s world, he views international relations through the prism of personal relations, and even a good personal relationship with Trump doesn’t stop the chaos,” Bolton averred.
Handed China a gift
Soon after Trump announced the tariffs on India, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval met Russian President Vladimir Putin . It was announced that President Putin will be visiting New Delhi by the end of this year .
Apart from this, PM Modi is reportedly going to visit China by the end of this month, his first visit since 2018. When asked if Trump just pushed India toward China and Russia, Bolton maintained that while ties with Moscow have been historical, Trump just handed a gift to China.
Bolton said, “In terms of border disputes and China’s general hegemonic ambitions, India would have been well within its rights to consider China the principal adversary. But when it comes to dealing with the US on trade, this [Trump tariffs] has given China a gift to say, ’look, you’re in as much danger as we are. Why don’t we get together?'”
“I’m sure that’s what Xi Jinping is going to be proposing. Russia is somewhat different, given the history. I think in India, there was a developing understanding that Russia grew closer to China. India was facing a problem with that Axis.”
“All of that has been reversed, or at least severely called into question. It’s an example of how Trump thinks of one thing at a time and doesn’t think of the consequences. So the one thing he was thinking of was a ceasefire in Ukraine, which he wasn’t getting from Russia. He took steps that had probably even greater negative implications for the United States elsewhere, particularly with India,” the former US NSA explained.
The Asim Munir question
Soon after the India-Pakistan military confrontation, Munir met President Trump in the White House. He is currently in the US attending the farewell ceremony of the Centcom chief . Munir eventually used American soil to deliver nuclear threats to India.
During Trump’s first term, we saw events like “Howdy Modi” and “Namaste Trump” . So what changed? Bolton said it is all about a Nobel Peace Prize nomination.
- Not a strategic rethinking but a Nobel dream
While speaking to Firstpost, Bolton said Trump’s affinity with Pakistan had nothing to do with “strategic rethinking”. He said, “I don’t think this is any strategic rethinking by Trump because he doesn’t do strategic rethinking. One thing Munir did was to offer to nominate him for a Nobel Peace Prize , which has become an obsession with Trump.”
“It’s part of a strategy of flattery, which often works with Trump as well. So my suggestion to Prime Minister Modi is that when he talks to Trump next, he should offer to nominate him twice for a Nobel Peace Prize and to keep nominating him until he gets it. Maybe that’ll help,” he exclaimed.
- Trump doesn’t understand Pakistan: Bolton
When asked about Munir’s recent nuclear threat against India during his second visit to the US, Bolton noted that while the US does not censor foreign leaders, it would be in the interest of everyone to see Pakistan retain a democratic government.
“I wouldn’t conclude a closer Pakistani-US relationship, although frankly I think it’s in the interest of everybody to see Pakistan retain a democratic government and not be under the military,” he said.
“But Trump doesn’t understand Pakistan at all. He’s been speaking in the past few weeks about the significant development of Pakistan’s oil reserves, which comes as a complete surprise to people in Pakistan. It’s just typical of Trump. He lives in many senses in a world of his own, a world he has created. I’m afraid because he does not think very much about what happens outside his world, he doesn’t see the ramifications sometimes of what he says.”
Tariff helps no one
When asked about the anti-American sentiments brewing in India , Ambassador Bolton said, “I don’t think he [Trump] understands any of that. He sees these tariffs as a way of encouraging domestic US manufacturers of many products, which we buy largely from overseas for a variety of reasons, and that theory isn’t going to work.”
“I think it’s a difficult populist term to explain that tariffs hurt everybody and that in a trade war, there’s never a winner,” Bolton remarked, insisting that ultimately American consumers are paying tariffs.
“It’s a tax on Americans. Tariffs were understood in the 19th century in America as taxes because it was the principal revenue source for the Federal government. Nobody had any illusions about it,” Bolton asserted.
“Trump thinks trade surpluses are like profits and trade deficits are like losses on a corporate balance sheet. Trade surpluses and deficits are not profits and losses,.” Bolton said.
“When you have a trade deficit, it means that you’ve been buying more products from another country than they’ve been buying from the United States. But that doesn’t mean Americans are left worse off if they buy a widget from Pakistan that costs $100. They’ve indeed given $100 to a Pakistani company, but they have a widget. Trump doesn’t seem to understand this.”
- Secondary tariffs are not hurting Russia
When asked about Trump’s reluctance to hold trade talks with India until it stops purchasing oil from Russia, Bolton emphasised that the whole thing is “self-defeating”. He said, “It is indicative of Trump’s inability to prioritise among competing objectives.”
“It’s a reality, especially for a country like the US, which has so many interests in so many places around the world that sometimes you have to decide what your priorities are. And Trump can’t make up his mind on that. He’s now fixed that he wants to show some toughness to Russia,” Bolton said.
“He hoped that this [secondary sanctions] would affect the negotiations that will take place in Alaska this Friday. But the fact is, it hasn’t hurt Russia at all. India still buys oil from Russia. So tariffs hurt India, but don’t hurt Russia.”
“The secondary tariff is not as effective as dealing with Russia directly, but I’m not sure anybody in the White House has explained that to Trump,” he added.
Undisciplined decision making
When asked if the overall modified tariffs were Trump’s bid to divert people’s attention from the Epstein Files , Ambassador Bolton simply said that these tariffs indicate Trump’s poor decision-making capabilities.
“These tariffs are harmful not just in the existence of the tariffs themselves, but the uncertainty that they’ve created for decision makers in business and other governments who don’t know what the tariff rate is going to be and therefore cannot plan effectively,” he said.
“That’s what Trump likes. He likes to be the centre of attention. So a couple of weeks ago, out of nowhere on a Sunday evening, he imposed a 17 per cent tariff on importing Mexican tomatoes . Nobody knew why. Somehow, somebody had gotten to him about Mexican tomatoes. This is the sort of undisciplined, poorly thought-out decision-making that unfortunately really constitutes a lot of the way Trump reacts,” he said.
Trump-Putin meeting: Alaska summit
When asked about his thoughts on the US-Russia summit in Alaska , where Trump will be holding talks with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, Ambassador Bolton thinks Putin will be very strategic.
“Well, I think Putin has seen the playbook, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he came with a big plaque that said ‘Here’s my letter of nomination for you.’ I think what Putin really wants to do is use his KGB training and try to get Trump back under his influence,” Bolton said.
“I do think he recognises he pushed Trump too far. Maybe he did it intentionally, maybe unintentionally. I don’t know. It is a big win for Putin to come to the United States. He’s a pariah leader of a rogue state that committed unprovoked aggression against Ukraine.”
“On Friday, he’s going to get to stand next to the President of the United States and get his picture taken on territory that used to be Russian. Nobody in Russia has missed the fact that we bought Alaska from Russia in 1867. So it’s what Trump can do. I think a lot of people are going to be watching. But the main thing is to see if Putin emerges with Trump thinking that they’re friends again,” Ambassador Bolton concluded.