Pakistan courts China but changing Beijing-Delhi equation may see a different response over Pahalgam

On April 22, terrorists targeted a popular tourist spot in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam, killing 26 people, causing a wave of anguish across India. With security agencies tracing digital footprints of the attack to Pakistan, India swiftly announced five retaliatory measures , including putting the Indus Water Treaty in abeyance, triggering panic in Pakistan. Like in the past cases, Pakistan denied its involvement. However, the Jammu and Kashmir police identified two of the three suspected terrorists involved in shooting tourists in the Pahalgam meadows as Pakistani nationals. Their identities were released to the public.

The group that initially claimed responsibility for the attack, but backtracked on it was The Resistance Front , an offshoot of the proscribed terror outfit Lashkar-e-Taiba, which is Pakistan-based and operated. The measures from India led to a diplomatic tit-for-tat row between the two nations amid speculation that the current tension may lead to a military conflict.

For the longest time, China has been a strong ally of Pakistan, to the point that Islamabad is significantly dependent on Beijing, economically. However, India and China are also mending bilateral ties amid an uncertain global order. The two big economies in the world have been eying to disengage from tensions and building solid trade relations with each other in recent months.

Hence, the question now arises: Can India see China change its tune and distance itself from Pakistan if it can’t rein in the establishment in Islamabad?

The story of two attacks

To understand China’s take on terror attacks that test India’s patience, one needs to see how China responded to India’s surgical strike across the Line of Control (LoC) after Uri terror attack in 2016 and air strikes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Balakot after the 2019 Pulwama attack , in which 40 CRPF personnel were killed in the horrific incident carried out by a Jaish suicide bomber. In both instances, China “resolutely opposed all forms of terrorism”, something Beijing reiterated after the Pahalgam terror attack.

However, in the past, the veto-wielding member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has often blocked India’s appeal to designate several LeT operatives as global terrorists under the UNSC’s 1267 sanctions regime. Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) chief Masood Azhar’s shielding at the UNSC is a case in point.

This time around, China may be more open towards India’s position, given the economic constraints Beijing finds itself in after the return of Donald Trump as the US president, leading to a tariff war that is threatening its dominance as a global supplier of goods.

Two days after the Pahalgam attack, when India briefed envoys of almost all G20 nations and those from its strategic partners about the attack, China was among the nations whose envoy attended the briefing by India’s external affairs ministry.

In a similar exercise after 2016 Uri terror attack, Chinese envoy was not part of the New Delhi’s briefing. They attended the briefing after the 2019 Pulwama terror attack. This time too, more than 100 foreign envoys were part of the briefings that began with P-5 countries, with China being part of the diplomatic outreach.

Mending ties between India and China

While speaking at the News18 Rising Bharat Summit last month, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar said that India-China ties are moving towards a “positive direction”, emphasising that the two nations are at a better place.

“It is obviously better than the last time I was here. Disengagement, particularly in Depsang, Demchok, was important. We are now addressing, to some extent, the issues on the border because there has been a force buildup over a period of years. There are many other things that happened during this period. Our direct flights stopped during COVID-19, and they were not resumed. Kailash Mansarovar Yatra was stopped during COVID, it did not resume again. There is work to be done, and we are at it," Jaishankar said at that time.

Soon after Jaishankar’s remarks, Yu Jing, spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in India, lauded the EAM . “Hard-won progress, worth cherishing,” she wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

In recent months, China and India have disengaged from the border standoff. Not only are these arbitrary tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump making both nations look for alternative trading partners.

In an email interview with Firstpost last month, noted American economist Prof Jeffrey D Sachs spoke about how India and China can help each other in a turbulent world order.

“I think that China and India have shared common stakes in building a truly multi-polar world. India’s strength and success will be good for China, not only in bilateral relations, but also in enabling China and India to face down protectionism in the US and Europe,” he told Firstpost.

China’s distrust of Pakistan

Due to the growing instability in Pakistan, China has been hesitant to go “all-in” with Pakistan. As mentioned before, Pakistan’s economy heavily relies on China, so much so that it comes at the cost of its own civilians. This can be seen by looking at the plight of the Baloch civilians.

“Pakistan’s economy heavily relies on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) — a project celebrated by the state as a game changer. However, for the people of Balochistan, particularly in Gwadar, this project is nothing less than a tragedy written in blood,” prominent Baloch activist and central committee leader of Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC), Dr Sabiha Baloch said in an interview with Firstpost.  

“In reality, CPEC is being constructed on the blood, homes, and livelihoods of the Baloch people. While the state enjoys the benefits and prides itself on development, the people of Balochistan continue to pay the price, with their lives, economy, and land,” she said.

The resentment from the Baloch civilians has also emerged as a security hazard for Chinese nationals working on the project. In the past, there have been instances when militants and terror groups in Pakistan have attacked Chinese workers. Beijing twisted Pakistan’s arm to take an aggressive stance against terrorism. However, the fear of Pakistani-fostered terrorism affecting its own civilians will always remain persistent in China.

Still a long road ahead

However, it will take a lot for India to tilt China towards its side. Beijing has propped Islamabad for a long time as a counter-India entity. Even after the Pahalgam terror attack, reports said China helped Pakistan in watering down the UNSC statement, dropping the name of the outfit that initially claimed responsibility for the killings. The group backtracked on its claim after the UNSC statement.

Not only this, on Monday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call with his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar in which the country, supported Islamabad’s rhetoric, undermining the ongoing investigation conducted by India in the Pahalgam attack.

This would make one believe that China is standing solidly behind Pakistan. However, history suggests something else. China has not been a strong friend to Pakistan at the time of crisis. China did not explicitly come to Pakistan’s aid in 1965, despite having accepted the gift of Shaksgam Valley in the PoK, when Indian forces almost reached Lahore. During the Kargil war, China did not create help out Pakistan militarily.

Not only this, China’s love for Pakistan also comes at a cost. It is now selling its missiles and fighter jets, for which global markets are shrinking amid rising suspicion about Chinese strategic moves. The return of Donald Trump to the White House in the US is also shaping the global opinions about China, whose own belligerence in the Indo-Pacific region hasn’t helped its cause.

Pakistan’s so-called ‘iron brother’ China, is its biggest benefactor but at the cost of provisions that Beijing could use any stretch of land under Islamabad’s control for any purpose it wants. Pakistan may have to tread lightly when it comes to China, which is now looking to mend ties with India, having already suffered huge economic costs due to its actions in eastern Ladakh in 2020 in the early months of Covid-19 outbreak.