Pakistan to host SCO summit tomorrow as armed groups outpace the army

Pakistan’s policy on terrorism has been full of contradictions. Pakistan says it is committing to “root out” terrorism but its deep state is known to be supporting and sponsoring several terror groups. Now, the country is facing the heat as Islamabad prepares to host the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, beginning Tuesday.

In the run up to the key security meet, armed groups have increased attacks, targeting Chinese nationals among others. Practically, the armed groups of Pakistan have outpaced its politically influential Army.

Pakistan is hosting the SCO meet, with senior leaders from longtime ally China and archrival India among those attending. Established in 2001 by China and Russia, the SCO discusses security concerns in Central Asia and the wider region.

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However, the 2024 SCO summit is happening when the host nation Pakistan’s own security is under the microscope.

An attack on a foreign ambassadors’ convoy, violent protests by supporters of an imprisoned former premier, and a bombing outside Pakistan’s biggest airport are signs the country is struggling to contain multiplying threats from insurgents.

Armed groups are outpacing the army

Pakistan says it has foiled attacks through intelligence-based operations and preventative measures. It frequently vows “to root out terrorism”. However, the frequency and scale of the recent terror attack indicate that the Pakistani government isn’t in control. These attacks have raised questions about its ability to protect key sites and foreigners, let alone Pakistanis.

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In the last few weeks, separatists from Pakistan’s southwest Balochistan province have killed Chinese nationals in Karachi, Pakistan’s biggest city, as well as more than 20 miners in an attack on housing at a coal mine and seven workers in another attack.

Reports from the country suggest that the outlawed Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) is better at mobilising fighters in different areas and its operational capabilities have increased. The BLA seeks independence for the province.

Unlike a number of other groups operating in Pakistan like the Pakistani Taliban, the PLA is not interested in overthrowing the state to establish a caliphate. However, both the Pakistani Taliban and the BLA have a common enemy — the government.

Pakistan watchers say the Pakistani Taliban is supporting the BLA in its actions against the Pakistani government. But, even without an alliance, attacks in the southwest are becoming more audacious and brutal, indicating that the BLA’s tactics are evolving and taking the security apparatus by surprise.

The Pakistani Taliban continue their shootings and bombings in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan.

It could be difficult for militants to hit the summit given the security around it and the areas where delegates will stay. But they could still wreak havoc.

Vehicles are often just waved through street checkpoints in Islamabad. Aside from government buildings and top hotels, body searches and under-vehicle scanners are rare.

“At stake for the entire state is the only mission — how to hold such an event peacefully,” news agency AP quoted Imtiaz Gul, the executive director of the Center for Research and Security Studies, as saying.

“How to get it done without any unpleasant incidents taking place. It’s going to be a formidable challenge for the government to disprove the notion of failures within the security apparatus,” Gul said.

Meanwhile, protests are also hurting Pakistan

Pakistan is also facing a political crisis as the government and former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party are on a collision path. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said last week that the national economy suffered cumulative daily losses of more than $684 million on account of recent agitation.

Aurangzeb was referring to Khan supporters reaching the heart of the nation’s capital Islamabad, despite a suspension of the local mobile phone network and shipping containers blocking entry and exit points to the city. The shutdown hit most business sectors, the gig economy, point-of-sale transactions, commuters, students, workers and more.

Pakistan can’t afford to incur such losses or deepen people’s grievances. It relies on International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailouts and multibillion-dollar deals and loans from friendly countries to meet its economic needs. There are regular protests about energy bills and the cost of living.

Despite people’s hardships, authorities have declared a three-day holiday surrounding the summit.

There have been reports of the government ordering the closure of wedding halls, restaurants, hotels, cafes and markets in Islamabad and the neighbouring garrison city Rawalpindi for security reasons.

Officials denied the reports, but not very strenuously.

“Generally, high-profile conferences are meant to promote connectivity, trade and improve a country’s image,” said Gul. But not in this case because Islamabad won’t look like a normal city, he added.

“It seems they lack innovative thinking," Gul said. “They are unable to use smart approaches and that’s why the easier way is to shut everything down.”

Can the SCO summit work for Pakistan?

The last time Pakistan hosted a summit was in March 2022, a month before Khan was kicked out of office and a fresh cycle of upheaval started.

The country’s security situation and political instability are two factors that have prevented it from holding major international events.

Even its best-loved sport, cricket, has suffered. There was a 10-year absence of Test matches after terrorists ambushed a Sri Lanka team bus in 2009, killing eight people and injuring players and officials.

The summit is Pakistan’s chance to shine, especially in front of its neighbour China, to whom it is in hock by several billion dollars and whose nationals are prime targets for armed groups, as well as India.

India will be represented by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. It is the first time that India is sending a minister to Pakistan since 2015. The relations between the two countries have remained tense, with practically no diplomatic communications in the wake of a series of terrorist attacks by Pakistan-backed terror outfits between 2016 and 2019, which saw India responding with surgical strikes and cross-border aerial attacks on terrorist training camps.

Pakistan, unused to hosting such a high-level meeting, will have to put its best face forward.

AP quoted senior defence analyst Abdullah Khan as saying that the Pakistani government wants to present itself in the context of international legitimacy amid current domestic crises.

“The presence of heads of state and other senior officials will itself be a success as Pakistan will come out of its so-called isolation,” said Khan. “A peacefully held SCO will further improve the country’s image.”

(With inputs from AP)