One year since Pakistan elected Shehbaz Sharif’s PML, but country is still not out of the woods

On February 8, 2024, amid all the violence and chaos, Pakistan chose a new government. Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz while did not get the majority, somehow managed to form a government with the country’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif as the party’s face. The election was technically the clash between the two titans.

It was a political tussle between Pakistan cricket’s blue-eyed boy Imran Khan and erstwhile businessman and politician Nawaz Sharif. However, one side did not get its fair shot in the battle. Khan, who was seen as the opposition to the country’s so-called “establishment” was put behind bars as he struggled to navigate one case after another. Even his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf was not allowed to contest the poll as a political party.

The members of Khan’s party had to fight as independent candidates and still managed to rattle the hopes of PML-N coming back to power smoothly. The elections were also taking place at a turbulent time, the country’s economy was facing a major crisis, instances of terrorist attacks increased and protests frequently erupted across the country.

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It’s been one year since the fateful elections took place. While Pakistan’s economy is on the road to stability. Political tensions are still high. With the advent of the Trump administration in the United States, Pakistan is already trying to find a space for itself at the international level. Here’s a look at how things are in Pakistan, one year after the doomed elections.

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The former Prime Minister of the country, Imran Khan, continues to remain in jail. Despite getting bail in one case after another, Khan’s incarceration tends to get prolonged with new charges being hurled. Not only this his wife was put behind bars as well. The fate of other top PTI leaders like Shah Mehmood Qureshi also remains the same with many wondering if PML-N’s main rival fading away.

Throughout the year, the remaining members of PTI conducted several demonstrations. Many of these protests even turned violent. Despite all this, PML-N continued to enjoy the support of Pakistan’s military establishment.

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It is also an unsaid fact in the country, that whoever the army supports will ultimately rule the country. There have been instances when Prime Ministers lost their seats because they lost the support of the country’s overpowering military establishment.

“A year after a marred election, the civilian coalition government, in partnership with the military, has consolidated control over the country,” Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, told DW. “Of course, it has come at quite a bit of cost — to the country’s democracy, to the judiciary’s independence, to people’s freedom of speech and right to information — and its benefits are in question,” she added.

Last month, a court sentenced Khan and his wife Bushra Bibi an additional prison sentence of 14 years for corruption. The former Pakistani premier is currently facing nearly 200 legal cases, but his party asserts that the recent conviction is being used as a tactic to force him out of politics. While PTI attempts to negotiate with the ruling regime, the fate of Khan remains unclear.

Economic Stability

It cannot be denied that in the span of one year, Pakistan’s economic situation did improve. However, the credit for that might go to the bailout package the cash-strapped country received from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Now the question for the future is whether Islamabad will manage to capitalise on the IMF’s help or not.

There was a ray of optimism this week after the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported year-on-year inflation came in at 2.4 per cent ­— the lowest in nine years. This marks a significant decline from the 28.3 per cent recorded in January 2024. Last week, Pakistan’s central bank reduced its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 12%, reflecting the easing of inflation.

In January this year, Pakistan also agreed to a 10-year plan with the World Bank which will see $20 billion worth of loans entering the country. Hence, it will be interesting to see how Pakistan will utilise this assistance.

Rise of terrorism

In the year after the Pakistan election, the country has been facing a deadly escalation in militant violence. According to the data provided by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), 757 people were killed and nearly as many injured in the first eight months of 2024.

Over 200 people were killed just in August alone, making it the deadliest month in six years. Pakistani-administered provinces like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan were the major victims of these attacks.

Experts have said that one of the major reasons why the attacks are on the rise is because Pakistan’s leadership have remained distracted by partisan squabbling and a heavy-handed crackdown on the political opposition. Hence, they failed to address the rise in the attacks which have been mostly attributed to Afghanistan-based Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). While Pakistan is imposing a heavy crackdown on Afghans who sought refugees in the country, the whole move is like hitting the tip of the iceberg.

The voices of Baloch civilians remain unheard

For decades, the people of Balochistan have been protesting against being treated like “second-class civilians”. Even on Saturday, protests have erupted over the rising forced abduction of Baloch women.

“Oppression and anguish overwhelming the Baloch families continue despite protests and demands for justice in Khuzdar and Kharan districts of Balochistan. The Baloch Yakjehti Committee Khuzdar Zone and the family of forcibly abducted Asma Baloch have been protesting for the past 38 hours, blocking the main highway (N-25),” the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) said in a post.

“They have made it clear that highway would be blocked until the safe recovery of their daughter and justice against perpetrators who are under the patronage of tribal Sardar and intelligence agencies,” the group furthered. Not only this, the people of Balochistan have often raised concerns over the fact that their crucial resources are being sold to Pakistan’s foreign allies, especially China, rather than being used for the region’s own development. Hence, the plight of the Baloch people continues to remain unheard.

The advent of Trump

Pakistan will now have to brace for US President Donald Trump’s comeback. Soon after Trump came back to power, several experts argued that the United States would now be viewing Pakistan only through the India-China lens. When it comes to the continent of Asia, the Trump administration as of now has only maintained its policies or even threats towards China and India.

Pakistan has been under the radar for now. Hence, it will be interesting to see how the recently recovered Pakistan will try to make its own space in the international arena. Another interesting aspect of this equation is that Washington’s neglect is now forcing Pakistan to get closer to China to the point of dependence.

The Trump administration and Washington to be precise was already miffed by Pakistan’s support of the Taliban, when the militant group took over Kabul, forcing American troops stationed there to retreat. Not only this, the US is also aware that Pakistan is highly unlikely to counter China in any shape or form. Hence, Islamabad will remain on low priority on Washington’s list.

Interestingly, Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio is known for having a strong tilt towards India which goes with his “anti-China and anti-Pakistan stance”. During a Congressional hearing on Afghanistan in 2021, Rubio condemned Pakistan’s support for the Taliban, calling it a “third-rate” country.

“The Pakistani role in enabling the Taliban is ultimately a victory for those pro-Taliban hardliners in the Pakistani government,” Rubio told then-Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at that time.

“They (Indians) have to be looking at this and saying if the United States could have, you know, a third-rate power like Pakistan unravel its aims, what chance do they have of confronting China? So, I think this leaves us in a terrible situation,” he added.

Meanwhile, there is also a sudden level of distrust between Beijing and Islamabad given the lack of security in Pakistan. China has often raised concerns about the security of Chinese workers and officials who are working on several infrastructure projects in Pakistan. These Chinese nationals have been the main victims of recent terrorist attacks in Pakistan. Hence, China will be close to Pakistan but it always keep its one-eye open.

With inputs from agencies.