New York, Michigan, Iowa...: Is Trump getting desperate to shape US midterms that are due in 2026?

As the political calendar turns its attention toward the 2026 US midterm elections, President Donald Trump appears to be exerting increasingly overt control over Republican congressional strategy. In recent weeks, Trump has played a decisive role in shaping GOP candidacies across battleground states like New York, Michigan and Iowa.

While his supporters hail this as party discipline in action, many view it as a calculated and possibly desperate attempt to prevent another electoral debacle like the 2018 House flip. The question now looms: is Trump consolidating power or compensating for vulnerability?

Keeping the House at all costs

At the core of Trump’s strategy is a single, obsessive goal: protecting the GOP’s razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives. Republicans control the chamber by only a handful of seats, a fact not lost on the president. According to reporting by NBC News, Trump has been personally intervening to dissuade vulnerable House Republicans from seeking higher office, thereby keeping reliable incumbents in place.

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The Associated Press quoted Trump campaign sources as saying that the move marks a departure from earlier cycles where Trump often endorsed insurgent Senate candidates without much concern for broader party dynamics. Now, the emphasis is on unity and incumbency especially in marginal districts.

New York: Lawler stays put, Stefanik in waiting

One of the clearest examples of this effort unfolded in New York. Congressman Mike Lawler, who represents a swing district in the Hudson Valley that former vice president Kamala Harris won in 2024, recently confirmed he would not challenge Governor Kathy Hochul for the state’s top job. While Lawler stressed the decision was his alone, he acknowledged that Trump had “offered his perspective” during a private meeting.

Lawler’s re-election campaign was endorsed by Trump in May—an early signal that the president wanted him to stay in the House. Republican strategists see Lawler’s decision as critical to retaining the seat in a high-stakes midterm.

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Meanwhile, this move potentially clears the gubernatorial path for Representative Elise Stefanik, a staunch Trump ally whose name was floated after her nomination to the United Nations ambassadorship was withdrawn.

Stefanik has indicated she will reveal her intentions after this fall’s elections. As reported by NBC News, her possible candidacy highlights Trump’s willingness to elevate allies from safer districts while reinforcing GOP infrastructure where it’s most needed.

Michigan: Avoiding a GOP civil war

Trump’s influence is equally visible in Michigan, where Congressman Bill Huizenga opted out of a Senate run after meeting with the president at the White House. The Associated Press revealed that Trump’s priority was keeping Huizenga in the House to secure his west Michigan seat, rated “likely Republican” by the Cook Political Report.

Huizenga’s exit from the Senate race effectively clears the way for former Congressman Mike Rogers, a Trump-friendly figure who has staffed his campaign with former Trump aides. Though Trump has not yet formally endorsed Rogers, insiders expect that move soon.

While Huizenga has not officially announced a re-election bid, GOP operatives suggest his decision—shaped directly by Trump—is part of a broader strategy to avoid intra-party conflict in swing states and to maximise resources toward winnable districts.

Iowa: Nunn bows to Trump’s midterm playbook

In Iowa, Representative Zach Nunn had been considering a run for governor following Governor Kim Reynolds’ decision not to seek re-election. However, after a conversation with Trump, Nunn chose to remain in the House. The district he represents is a Democratic target in 2026, having been won by only four points in the last cycle.

Trump’s endorsement of Nunn’s re-election was quick and emphatic, with sources describing the congressman as a “team player.” According to NBC News, this move is emblematic of Trump’s new playbook which is of convincing lawmakers in contested districts that the national interest of the party outweighs individual ambitions.

Representative Randy Feenstra, who holds a safer seat, is now among those considering a gubernatorial run. This supports the notion that Trump is willing to let GOP members seek higher office only when their departure doesn’t threaten House control.

A calculated silence in the Senate

Interestingly, while Trump is taking a hands-on approach with House races, he has remained relatively circumspect when it comes to open Senate contests. In states like Georgia and North Carolina, Trump has not yet waded into contentious primaries. Political observers interpret this as a deliberate contrast to his previous, often chaotic, endorsement patterns.

That said, former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper is widely expected to run for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Thom Tillis. This could create a high-stakes showdown that may yet draw Trump’s attention. For now, his priority appears to be ensuring a stable, loyal and electorally viable House majority.

Trump’s direct involvement has not gone unnoticed. Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama told The Hill that Trump now commands more influence over the Republican Party than any president he’s ever seen. Tuberville also issued a warning to dissenters, stating that GOP lawmakers who refuse to align with Trump should prepare to face primary challenges.

However, not all Republicans are falling in line. Michigan’s Representative John James has chosen to run for governor, a decision that reportedly displeased Trump. During a recent event, Trump jokingly suggested that James shouldn’t be allowed to run unless his House seat could be adequately filled.

Such moments illustrate the limits of Trump’s control—even as most GOP lawmakers seem to heed his directives. As Lawler candidly put it in a media appearance, while Trump’s opinion was valuable, “I didn’t get here by doing as told.”

Desperation or discipline?

Democrats, unsurprisingly, interpret these moves through a lens of weakness. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries framed Trump’s interventions as coercion, saying that Republicans are being “ordered” to stay in place because of their grim electoral prospects.

Still, it’s hard to ignore the effectiveness of Trump’s manoeuvres. He’s minimising damaging primaries, bolstering vulnerable districts and testing a more disciplined version of his political machine. This could either be the product of maturity in strategy or of nervous anticipation about what’s at stake if the GOP fails to hold the House again.

If Trump’s campaign is marked by calculation rather than chaos in 2026, it may not be desperation at all but rather a serious, if ruthless, effort to ensure that history does not repeat itself. Whether that’s enough to counteract traditional midterm losses remains to be seen. What’s clear is that Trump intends to leave nothing to chance.