More organised, more defiant: Inside Trump’s strategy to challenge 2024 election outcome

With November’s US presidential election looming, former President Donald Trump has signaled that he may contest the results if he loses, casting doubt on a peaceful transition. Locked in a tight race against Vice President Kamala Harris, Trump has repeatedly claimed that only fraud could cause him to lose.

“If I lose – I’ll tell you what, it’s possible. Because they cheat. That’s the only way we’re gonna lose, because they cheat,” Trump said at a rally last month, reiterating unsubstantiated allegations of voter fraud.

Trump, who evaded repercussions after the January 6 Capitol attack, has also echoed supportive statements about those involved, describing it as a “day of love,” the Guardian reported.

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The Trump campaign’s preparation to dispute election results appears extensive and organised, with growing support from Republican officials and a significant legal strategy.

His running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, has also voiced doubts, stating he would not have certified the 2020 election and, in recent debates, refrained from saying Trump lost four years ago.

An organised legal framework now backs these claims, a marked shift from 2020’s post-election litigation. Sean Morales-Doyle, voting rights program director at the Brennan Center for Justice, described this year’s effort as “more strategic, more organized, more coordinated.”

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Surveys indicate that nearly one in five Republicans believe Trump should declare the election invalid if he loses, a sentiment echoed by some Democrats about Harris.

At least 35 election officials who previously refused to certify results could now influence vote certification, according to the watchdog group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW).

The Republican National Committee (RNC) has already spent months filing lawsuits challenging voter eligibility, which, while largely dismissed by courts, continue to stoke claims of irregularities. Voting rights advocates say these actions, aimed at generating headlines, are intended to erode public trust in the electoral process.

Election challenges and legal preparations

On election night, Trump is expected to claim any delay in vote-counting signals fraud, echoing the false narrative that postal ballots in 2020 were suspicious. Lawsuits to challenge vote totals in swing states could follow immediately, the RNC indicated.

In Michigan, for example, the RNC filed a lawsuit in March alleging inflated voter rolls, which was dismissed by a federal judge. The watchdog group Protect Democracy labeled such actions as “zombie lawsuits,” predicting they could be revived post-election.

Experts anticipate that Trump allies may attempt to stop certification of votes at local levels. Since 2020, some Republican-controlled local boards have refused to certify primary results, though courts ultimately forced compliance.

Congressional certification and new safeguards

If election challenges reach Congress, Trump could face additional obstacles.

A bipartisan law passed in 2022, the Electoral Count Reform Act, limits objections to the electoral vote and clarifies that the vice president cannot alter vote counts. The law also mandates that only state governors can certify electors.

Non-citizen voting narrative gains traction

Trump has refocused his claims of voter fraud on non-citizen voting, despite studies showing minimal cases. Earlier this year, Republican election officials in Alabama, Texas, Virginia, and Tennessee flagged non-citizens on voter rolls, later found to be eligible voters.

Billionaire Elon Musk has helped amplify these claims on social media, accruing millions of views, according to an analysis by the Washington Post.

Analysts like David Becker of the Center for Election Innovation and Research believe Trump’s emphasis on non-citizen voting is part of a broader strategy to contest the election.

Long-term impact on democratic trust

Experts warn that Trump’s stance could have lasting effects on Americans’ faith in democracy. “Democracy only works if people believe in it,” Morales-Doyle said, noting a movement built on distrust could weaken the foundations of US democracy.

While election officials are prepared to combat disruptions, many believe that Trump’s assertions could erode public trust in future elections, regardless of the results.