Moody's raises India's 2024 growth forecast to 7.2%, up from 6.8%, Fitch affirms rating

Moody’s raised India’s growth projection for 2024 and 2025 citing signs of improving rural demand, while Fitch affirmed the country’s sovereign credit rating, the agencies said in separate releases on Thursday.

Moody’s now expects India’s economy to expand 7.2% in 2024 from 6.8% previously, while growth for 2025 is pegged at 6.6% versus 6.4%.

“These forecast changes assume strong broad-based growth and we recognize potentially higher forecasts if the cyclical momentum, especially for private consumption, gains more traction,” Moody’s said.

The agency noted that both industrial and services sectors have demonstrated strong performance, with the services PMI consistently above 60 since the start of the year.

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“Household consumption is poised to grow as headline inflation eases toward the RBI’s target. Indeed, signs of a revival in rural demand are already emerging, on the back of improving prospects for agricultural output amid above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season,” Moody’s said.

The agency also said it expects the capex cycle to gain more steam amid rising capacity utilization, upbeat business sentiment and the government’s continued thrust on infrastructure spending.

Over the medium- and longer-term, India’s growth prospects depend on how well the country can productively tap its substantial pool of labour, Moody’s said.

“While employment generation and skill development are government priorities, the extent to which India reaps a demographic dividend will depend on whether and how well these policies succeed,” the agency said.

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“Nevertheless, 6%-7% growth should be possible purely on the basis of present conditions.”

Meanwhile, Fitch affirmed India’s long-term foreign currency issuer rating at ‘BBB-’ with a stable outlook, citing a strong medium-term growth outlook.

The agency said the growth outlook will continue to drive improvement in structural aspects of its credit profile, including India’s share of GDP in the global economy as well as its solid external finance position.

Strengthening fiscal credibility from meeting deficit targets, along with enhanced transparency and buoyant revenues have increased the likelihood that government debt can follow a modest downward trend in the medium term, it added.

“Nevertheless, fiscal metrics remain a credit weakness, with deficits, debt and debt service burden all high compared to ‘BBB’ range peers. Lagging structural metrics, including governance indicators and GDP per capita, also weigh on the rating,” Fitch said.