Exit polls show Merz’s conservatives leads in German election, far-right posts record gains since WWII

Exit polls show opposition leader Friedrich Merz’s conservatives leading in Germany’s national election. They indicate that Alternative for Germany is heading for the strongest showing for a far-right party since World War II.

The exit polls for ARD and ZDF public television show Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats on track for their worst postwar result in a national parliamentary election, and expected to be in third place.

If confirmed in the final count, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) roughly doubled its score to at least 19.5 percent, boosted by fears over immigration and security after a spate of deadly attacks blamed on asylum seekers.

Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance won at least 28.5 percent, said first exit polls from two public broadcasters, crushing the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) of the outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz, which were looking at around 16 percent.

Merz – a long-time party rival of ex-chancellor Angela Merkel – has vowed a crackdown on irregular immigration. He thus hopes to win back votes from the AfD and halt its rise, which has stunned many in a country still seeking to atone for its dark Nazi history.

For now, the AfD – basking in the vocal support of key allies of US President Donald Trump – is set to stay in opposition. All other parties have vowed to keep it out of power and behind a “firewall” of non-cooperation.

Male voters tended more towards the centre-right CDU/CSU and far-right AfD, while female voters showed stronger support for the centre-left SPD and the hard-left Die Linke party.

Germany’s fate hangs in balance as smaller parties fight for survival

Much depends on the fate of smaller parties in the complex Bundestag arithmetics, as several hovered around the five-percent cutoff mark for re-entry into the Bundestag and feared for their survival.

One of them was the liberal and pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), a potential ally for the conservatives to help them gain a majority.

The final balance will also be influenced by how the smaller far-left do in the final count. Die Linke appears to be headed for at least 8.5 per cent and the “left-wing conservative” newcomer BSW at 4.7 to five percent.

The high-stakes vote in the EU’s biggest economy comes amid tectonic upheaval in US-Europe ties sparked by Trump’s direct outreach to Russian President Vladimir Putin over their heads to end the Ukraine war.

Across Europe, NATO allies worry about the future of the alliance, nowhere more than in Germany which grew prosperous under the US-led security umbrella.

More threats loom from the United States, long Germany’s bedrock ally, if Trump sparks a trade war that could hammer Germany’s recession-hit economy.

Once in power, Merz has promised a “strong voice” in Europe at a time of chaotic disruption.

In his final campaign event in Munich on Saturday, he said the EU needed to walk tall to be able to “sit at the main table” of the world powers.

The AfD saw its support weaken considerably among older age groups, while Die Linke performed well among younger voters.

Turnout is 52% hours before polls close

Germany’s election authority says 52% of eligible voters had cast their ballots four hours before polling stations close.

The authority said the figure for turnout by 2 p.m. local time (1300 GMT) didn’t include people who voted by postal ballot. It compares with 36.5% at the same time in the 2021 election, but many people cast absentee ballots in that vote, which took place during COVID-19 restrictions.

Turnout is typically high in German elections. The final turnout figure in the 2021 election was 76.4%.

With inputs from agencies