US says Gaza ceasefire deal 'on the brink' until Hamas accepts it

Hours after media reports suggested that Hamas has agreed to a draft ceasefire agreement for Gaza and the release of hostages, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday appeared to deny such claims saying that the terror group has yet to give a final answer to the deal on the table.

“It’s right on the brink. It’s closer than it’s ever been before, but right now… we await final word from Hamas on its acceptance, and until we get that word, it will remain on the brink,” Times of Israel quoted Blinken as saying in an on-stage interview, shortly after giving an address on his Mideast policy at the Atlantic Council.

“That could come anytime. It could come in the hours ahead. It could come in the days ahead,” he added.

Mediators from the US and Qatar had indicated that both Israel and the Palestinian militant group are closer than ever to finalising a deal that could help end 15 months of conflict.

Earlier in the day, The Associated Press reported that it has obtained a copy of the proposed agreement, which was confirmed by both an Egyptian official and a Hamas official. An Israeli official acknowledged that progress has been made, though details are still being finalised. All three officials requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold an urgent meeting with top security officials on Tuesday night, according to a CNN report, citing an Israeli official.

The security consultation will be about a potential deal that would release the hostages, the official said.

Netanyahu spokesperson Omer Dostri told CNN the meeting will be a “status (of the deal) discussion.”

The United States, Egypt and Qatar have spent the past year trying to mediate an end to the war and secure the release of dozens of hostages captured in Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack that triggered it. Nearly 100 people are still captive inside Gaza, and the military believes at least a third are dead.

Any deal is expected to pause the fighting and bring hopes for winding down the most deadly and destructive war Israel and Hamas have ever fought, a conflict that has destabilized the Middle East and sparked worldwide protests.

It would bring relief to the hard-hit Gaza Strip, where Israel’s offensive has reduced large areas to rubble and displaced around 90% of the population of 2.3 million, many at risk of famine.

If a deal is reached, it would not go into effect immediately. The plan would need approval from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Security Cabinet and then his full Cabinet. Both are dominated by Netanyahu allies and are likely to approve any proposal he presents.

Officials have have expressed optimism before, only for negotiations to stall while the warring sides blamed each other. But they now suggest they can conclude an agreement ahead of the January 20 inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, whose Mideast envoy has joined the negotiations.

Hamas said in a statement that negotiations had reached their “final stage."

In the October 7 attack, Hamas-led militants killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted another 250. Around half those hostages were freed during a brief ceasefire in November 2023. Of those remaining, families say, two are children, 13 are women and 83 are men.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed over 46,000 Palestinians, more than half of them women and children, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not say how many of the dead were combatants.

Israeli strikes across Gaza overnight and into Tuesday killed at least 18 Palestinians, including two women and four children, according to local health officials, who said one woman was pregnant and the baby died as well.

There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military. Israel says it only targets militants and accuses them of hiding among civilians.

A three-phase agreement

The three-phase agreement — based on a framework laid out by US President Joe Biden and endorsed by the UN Security Council — would begin with the release of 33 hostages over a six-week period, including women, children, older adults and wounded civilians in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian women and children imprisoned by Israel.

Among the 33 would be five female Israeli soldiers, each to be released in exchange for 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 militants who are serving life sentences.

The Israeli official said Israel assumes most of the 33 are alive.

During this 42-day phase, Israeli forces would withdraw from population centers, Palestinians could start returning to what remains of their homes in northern Gaza and there would be a surge of humanitarian aid, with some 600 trucks entering each day.

Details of the second phase still must be negotiated during the first. Those details remain difficult to resolve — and the deal does not include written guarantees that the ceasefire will continue until a deal is reached. That means Israel could resume its military campaign after the first phase ends.

The Israeli official said “detailed negotiations” on the second phase will begin during the first. He said Israel will retain some “assets” throughout negotiations, referring to a military presence, and would not leave the Gaza Strip until all hostages are home.

The three mediators have given Hamas verbal guarantees that negotiations will continue as planned and that they will press for a deal to implement the second and third phases before the end of the first, the Egyptian official said.

The deal would allow Israel throughout the first phase to remain in control of the Philadelphi corridor, the band of territory along Gaza’s border with Egypt, which Hamas had initially demanded Israel withdraw from. Israel would withdraw from the Netzarim corridor, a belt across central Gaza where it had sought a mechanism for searching Palestinians for arms when they return to the territory’s north.

In the second phase, Hamas would release the remaining living captives, mainly male soldiers, in exchange for more prisoners and the “complete withdrawal” of Israeli forces from Gaza, according to the draft agreement.

Hamas has said it will not free the remaining hostages without an end to the war and a complete Israeli withdrawal, while Netanyahu has vowed in the past to resume fighting until Hamas’ military and governing capabilities are eliminated.

Unless an alternative government for Gaza is worked out in those talks, it could leave Hamas in charge of the territory.

In a third phase, the bodies of remaining hostages would be returned in exchange for a three- to five-year reconstruction plan for Gaza under international supervision.

Blinken on Tuesday was making a last-minute case for a proposal for Gaza’s postwar reconstruction and governance that outlines how it could be run without Hamas in charge.

Growing pressure ahead of Trump’s inauguration

Israel and Hamas have come under renewed pressure to halt the war before Trump’s inauguration. Trump said late Monday a ceasefire was “very close.”

Dozens of protesters, including relatives of hostages, formed a human chain Tuesday outside Israel’s parliament, demanding the deal be sealed.

“This is the chance, we can’t let it go until they are all here with us,” said Shay Dickmann, whose cousin in Gaza has been declared dead by the military.

In the Israeli-occupied West Bank, families of Palestinian prisoners gathered as well. “I tell the mothers of the prisoners to put their trust in the almighty and that relief is near, God willing,” said the mother of one prisoner, Intisar Bayoud.

And inside Gaza, an exhausted Oday al-Halimy expressed hope from a tent camp for the displaced. “Certainly, Hamas will comply with the ceasefire, and Israel is not interested in opposing Trump or angering him,” he said.

A child born in Gaza on the first day of the war, Massa Zaqout, sat in pink pajamas in another tent camp, playing with toys. “We’re eagerly waiting for a truce to happen so we can live in safety and stability,” her mother, Rola Saqer, said.

With inputs from agencies