Marine Le Pen's push for no-confidence motion against France's PM is a big gamble; Here's why

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen is betting big on a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government.

National Rally (RN) leader Le Pen is seizing the opportunity to challenge a weakened government and President Emmanuel Macron, whom she has opposed since losing to him in the 2022 presidential election.

The move that could bring her tantalizingly close to power or risk alienating voters as she pursues her long-held ambition of becoming president.

Le Pen’s decision to back the no-confidence vote comes as Macron’s presidency faces mounting pressure following snap parliamentary elections that produced a divided parliament. “What is obvious is that it’s not about Barnier… it’s about her trying to overthrow and weaken Macron, obviously for her personal ambitions to herself become the next president,” BBC quoted Armin Steinbach, a professor at HEC business school in Paris, as saying.

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PM Barnier, appointed by Macron just three months ago, has defended his 2025 budget as essential for reducing France’s deficit. But Le Pen argues it does not go far enough to address her demands on social security.

Her party leader, Jordan Bardella, accused Barnier of using a “strategy of fear” to deter lawmakers from supporting the no-confidence vote.

While Le Pen and Bardella are singing the same tune, harmony is far from reach.

Le Pen’s internal rival, Bardella, is already considered more popular within the party and beyond, positioning him as a potential presidential candidate for 2027 if Macron completes his term.

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The stakes are high for Le Pen, as a successful vote could lead to new parliamentary elections and potentially pave the way for her to challenge Macron’s government. However, it also risks economic instability and could paint her as prioritising personal ambition over national interest.

Adding to her challenges, Le Pen faces a legal battle over allegations of misusing European Parliament funds. A French court is set to rule in March, with prosecutors seeking jail time and a five-year ban from public office—an outcome that could end her presidential aspirations.

With 62 per cent of French voters reportedly favouring Macron’s resignation if Barnier’s government falls, Le Pen’s move could align with broader public sentiment. However, critics warn of significant risks, including plunging France into political and economic uncertainty.

The last time a French government fell due to a no-confidence vote was in 1962. If Le Pen missteps, she risks losing the political momentum she has built and alienating voters ahead of future elections. For her, this may be a decisive moment: now or never.