Mapping 2025: A timeline of global diplomatic wins and woes — Trump cloud looming large

As global leaders navigated a crowded diplomatic calendar in 2025, summitry, conflict management, and cautious de-escalation ran in parallel. Major multilateral forums set ambitious agendas, while wars and conflicts in Europe, West Asia, and Africa dragged on. Against this backdrop, selective diplomatic truces offered stability without resolution, underscoring a year defined more by management of crises than their settlement.

Across forums and conflict zones alike, the prospect of a second Donald Trump presidency loomed over diplomacy in 2025, shaping calculations even where the US role appeared restrained. His policies cast a shadow over multilateral engagement, evident in the US boycott of the G20 leaders’ summit in Johannesburg and the uneven presence of Washington in global economic discussions. At the same time, Trump’s imprint surfaced in security diplomacy, with the G7 reiterating support for his Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict and welcoming steps linked to ceasefire and hostage releases.

Summit diplomacy: G7, G20, and Asean

Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) countries — Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the US—met in July in Kananaskis, Alberta, in the foothills of the Canadian Rockies, for the 51st G7 summit. The first such meeting was held in 1975 in Rambouillet, France, then as the G6, before Canada joined a year later.

Under Canada’s presidency, the G7 focused on three pillars: strengthening global security, accelerating energy and digital transitions, and forging future partnerships. The agenda addressed the war in Ukraine, China’s global influence, artificial intelligence regulation, climate action, critical mineral supply chains, and digital governance, with India participating in outreach discussions on inclusive technology and Global South priorities.

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Key outcomes included strengthened support for Ukraine, with $2 billion in new military assistance and the disbursal of $5 billion in new loans under the G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration Loans mechanism. The G7 also elevated Ukraine’s participation and mobilised international support for the return of Ukrainian children and post-war reconstruction. Additional sanctions were imposed on Russia, alongside coordination with the European Union and the United Kingdom to lower the price cap on Russian oil and address shadow fleets.

The summit also launched the Kananaskis Wildfire Charter, endorsed by all G7 members and 12 partner countries, alongside an investment of $120.4 million in satellite-enabled wildfire data and preparedness. Measures were announced to counter transnational repression and emerging threats, including $500,000 to establish the G7 Rapid Response Mechanism Digital Transnational Repression Detection Academy, a Resilience and Response Framework, and the Joint Canada-UK Common Good Cyber Fund. The G7 further backed coordinated action against organised and financial crime and reiterated support for President Trump’s Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict, welcoming the ceasefire and release of hostages and stressing the urgency of returning the remains of deceased hostages, while calling for humanitarian assistance without interference.

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G20

The G20 marked a milestone by holding its leaders’ summit on African soil for the first time, with Johannesburg hosting the meeting on November 22–23. South Africa assumed the presidency from Brazil on December 1, 2024, making 2025 the fourth consecutive G20 presidency led by a Global South country and the third in a row by a BRICS member.

Leaders adopted a 122-paragraph declaration signalling support for multilateral cooperation. However, the US boycott of the summit, along with the absence of leaders from Argentina, China, Indonesia, and Mexico, raised questions about the forum’s effectiveness in addressing global economic challenges. Under the theme ‘Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability,’ South Africa prioritised disaster resilience, debt sustainability for low-income countries, financing a just energy transition, and harnessing critical minerals for inclusive growth. The agenda built continuity with earlier presidencies by Indonesia, India and Brazil, emphasising debt restructuring, food security, and climate finance, and framing global challenges through the spirit of Ubuntu.

Asean

In Southeast Asia, Asean 2025 under Malaysia’s chairmanship centred on an “Inclusive & Sustainable Asean Future”. The 46th and 47th Asean Summits were held in Kuala Lumpur in May and October, with leaders focusing on regional connectivity, digital integration and economic cooperation amid projected growth of around 4.5 per cent. Timor-Leste officially joined Asean on October 26, becoming its 11th member after a prolonged application process.

The bloc strengthened external partnerships, notably with India—declaring the Asean-India Year of Tourism—and the US. The 47th summit, held from October 26–28, brought together Asean leaders and partner countries, including the US and China. US President Donald Trump attended the opening day, overseeing Thailand and Cambodia signing an expanded ceasefire and joint declaration following their July truce after deadly border clashes. Discussions also covered the South China Sea, Myanmar’s conflict and economic cooperation.

Wars, conflicts and cautious calm

As 2025 progressed, armed conflicts and security flashpoints remained spread across multiple regions, underscoring the limits of diplomacy amid deep-rooted disputes. While some fronts saw managed tensions or fragile ceasefires, active wars and insurgencies continued to shape the global security landscape.

Russia–Ukraine war:
The full-scale conflict continued into its fourth year, marked by ongoing missile strikes, ground fighting and cross-border attacks.
Armenia–Azerbaijan tensions:
Border incidents persisted following Azerbaijan’s takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, keeping the situation volatile.
Israel–Gaza Strip war:
Fighting continued after the October 2023 escalation, with concerns over regional spillover.
Israel–Hezbollah (Lebanon border):
Frequent cross-border exchanges were carried on along the Israel–Lebanon frontier.
Israel–Iran shadow conflict:
Indirect confrontation persisted through strikes, cyber operations and the use of regional proxies.
Yemen civil war:
The conflict remained regionalised, involving the Houthis, the Yemeni government, and Saudi and international actors.
Sudan civil war:
Clashes between the army and the Rapid Support Forces continued, destabilising neighbouring countries.
Ethiopia’s internal conflicts:
Localised fighting endured despite the Tigray peace agreement.
Somalia insurgency:
Operations against Al-Shabaab continued, with wider regional security implications.
Nigeria insurgency (northwest and northeast):
Armed militant violence persisted, with cross-border security effects.
India–Pakistan (Line of Control):
The ceasefire largely held, though the border remained one of the world’s most volatile.
India–China (Ladakh border):
A prolonged military standoff continued without active combat.
China–Philippines (South China Sea):
Maritime confrontations involving coast guards and naval vessels occurred frequently.
China–Taiwan tensions:
Military pressure and drills continued, though without open warfare.
Myanmar civil war:
The military junta continued fighting multiple ethnic armed groups near international borders.
Venezuela–Guyana (Essequibo dispute):
Tensions remained elevated, though without active fighting.

Thailand and Cambodia:

Tensions between Thailand and Cambodia resurfaced in 2025 following deadly border clashes, prompting urgent diplomatic engagement to prevent further escalation. A truce reached in July laid the groundwork for de-escalation, which was later formalised and expanded through an agreement signed during the ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in Kuala Lumpur, with both sides committing to a ceasefire and joint measures to stabilise the border situation.

Diplomatic truces marked 2025 amid ongoing global conflicts

In 2025, a number of diplomatic truces and peace agreements marked attempts to de-escalate long-running conflicts and pause hostilities across regions. While uneven in scope and durability, these agreements reflected sustained international mediation efforts amid a turbulent global security environment.

One of the most significant developments came on June 27, 2025, when the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda signed a US- and Qatar-mediated peace agreement aimed at ending hostilities between the two neighbours. In August, Armenia and Azerbaijan initialled and signed a joint declaration to establish peaceful relations following years of conflict linked to Nagorno-Karabakh. In Southeast Asia, Cambodia and Thailand signed the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord on October 26, 2025, agreeing to a ceasefire and outlining steps to de-escalate border tensions.

Other diplomatic pauses included a temporary US–China trade truce agreed on the sidelines of the APEC-related negotiations in Busan in late 2025, easing tariff escalation. In West Asia, a multilateral ceasefire and broader peace plan between Israel and Hamas came into effect in October 2025 as part of an internationally negotiated framework. Together, these five agreements represented the main formalised diplomatic truces recorded during the year.

Together, these strands defined 2025 as a year of managed confrontation — marked by ambitious diplomacy, enduring wars and selective efforts to prevent escalation rather than deliver lasting peace.