Know when Ukraine will launch counteroffensive against Russia

Kyiv: One year on, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues with no sight of an end to the conflict between the two countries. Amid this, authorities in Kyiv say that Ukrainian Armed Forces may launch a counteroffensive “in the coming week.”

However, weather—the mud season—in Ukraine will be deciding the exact time when the troops would launch a pushback against Russian military.

Ukraine’s counterattack to begin from Melitopol?

To fight Russian invaders, Ukrainian troops at the front line will first have to battle the weather. There counteroffensive would only be possible once the mud season ends, a report by DW quoted weather expert and US Air Force veteran David Helms as saying.

Ukraine Army waiting for mud season to end

The mud season is known as “rasputitsa” in Ukraine. Tanks, troop carriers and artillery pieces all become mired down in the soggy earth during this time.

For the unversed, mud season is the name given to the period between winter’s end (late March) and spring’s start (somewhere around May) when melting snow and spring rains turn unpaved roads, dirt paths, and hiking trails a muddy mess.

For frontline in Ukraine, Helms predicted that the loss of moisture from the soil usually picks up by May beginning and beyond. In southern Ukraine, the soil will be dry around mid- April and in the Donetsk region it will be somewhere after two weeks and from mid-May in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region further north.

Snow Cover Analysis
2 APR 2023 at 11:30 UTC
Snow has melted south and west of Donetsk City but remains in east Donetsk Oblast and south/central Luhansk with patchy snow extending northwest into eastern Kharkiv Oblast. Melting will continue with high temps near 15C Monday (APR 3). pic.twitter.com/fHFQDpULWe

— David Helms (@davidhelms570) April 2, 2023

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While Russian tanks that are in Eastern Ukraine, are still stuck in the mud, the Ukrainian army could commence a counteroffensive in the south towards the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol.

Helms, who worked for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the US, further said, “Mud season in the context of military vehicles depends not only on the strength of the soil, but also the kinds of vehicles that are anticipated for any offensive operation.”

In his daily video messages, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has referred to the planned counteroffensive. Also, the war-torn country has been receiving military support, including tanks and ammunition, from the US, UK, Poland and Germany.

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