US election 'Nostradamus' Allan Lichtman predicts: Kamala Harris will win against Trump

As the race for the White House intensifies, Allan Lichtman, the historian dubbed the “Nostradamus” of US presidential elections predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris will win November’s polls. The prediction came after Lichtman previously warned Democrats about the side effects of US President Joe Biden’s exit from the 2024 presidential race.

In the video for The New York Times, the American historian, nevertheless predicted that the new Democratic presidential nominee will win the polls. He insisted that Harris is on course to beat former US President Donald Trump, despite the fact that the Democrats had effectively surrendered the valuable key of presidential incumbency. This is one of the 13 keys Lichtman has been using to determine the likely outcome of the presidential polls.

“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States – at least that’s my prediction for the outcome of this race,” the 77-year-old concluded in the seven-minute-long quirky video. “But the outcome is up to you. So get out and vote," he concluded.

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MY PREDICTION IS IN! Will it be Harris or Trump? Check out @nytopinion for my pick! pic.twitter.com/YFwldAkHZ3

— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) September 5, 2024

The stellar success rate of Allan Lichtman

The professor at the American University has been accurately forecasting US presidential election results since 1984. Over the years, Lichtman claimed to have predicted all but one George W Bush’s contested triumph over Al Gore in 2000. The results of the close election were ultimately determined by the US Supreme Court, a month after the November polls.

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In the past, Lichtman accurately forecast Trump’s unheralded 2016 election triumph over Hillary Clinton at a time when major opinion polls suggested otherwise. He also correctly forecasted that Trump would be impeached during his presidency. The former reality TV star was impeached twice from the Oval Office

How the candidates fare in Lichtman’s 13 keys

Lichtman’s predictions are based on a set of true/false propositions on 13 keys which he developed in 1981 with geophysicist Vladimir Keillis-Borok. The keys do not take into account polling trends. In The New York Times video, the American historian stated that “False” would mean points for Trump and “True” would work in Harris’ favour. Here’s a look at how where the candidates stand in Lichtman’s 13 keys:

2. Midterms Gains | False - Lichtman stated that the Democrats did “better than expected” in the 2022 midterms. However, they still lost House seats. Hence, the key is false and in favour of Trump.

3. Incumbency | False - The polling Nostradamus still believed that Biden’s decision to end his re-election bid would cost Democrats that key.

4. Primary Contest | True - The Democrats avoided a primary contest and united heavily behind Harris. Hence, this made the key True and in favour of the US VP.

5. Presence of Third Party | True - After RFK Jr’s exit, there is no other third-party candidate which is anywhere close to the 10 per cent polling threshold. Hence, this key will also work in favour of Harris.

6. Short-Term Economy | True - Despite all speculations, the US economy under the Biden administration is not in recession. This will work in favour of Harris.

7. Long-Term Economy | True - Growth during the Biden administration has been at least as good as the last two terms, helping Harris in the race.

8. Policy Change | True - Major policy changes such as the CHIPS bill and making the US rejoin the Paris Accord will also work in the Democrats’ favour, this election.

9. Social Unrest | True - While there have been sporadic protests across the country. The Biden administration did not witness a “sustained social unrest”. With Harris’ entry into the race, people are still accepting her stance on the ongoing Gaza crisis.

10. White House Scandal | True - While there have been some scandals regarding POTUS’ son Hunter Biden. The White House remained untainted by scandals, Harris herself did not get into any scandals as well.

11. Incumbent Charisma | False - While Harris has broken several glass ceilings throughout her career and might create history if she wins the polls, Lichtman believes that Harris has still not attained the standard to turn the key in her favour.

12. Challenger Charisma | True - After surviving an assassination attempt, Trump did gain major popularity. However, he continues to appeal to a narrow base.

13. Foreign Policy Failure | Unanswered

14. Foreign Policy Success | Unanswered

Before the answers to the final two keys were revealed, Lichtman concluded that Harris would still have 8 out of 13 keys in her favour, indicating that she had a solid chance of winning the 2024 US presidential election. Hence, it will be interesting to see if the “Nostradamus” of US presidential elections will be right again or not.