Israel, Turkey emerge as big winners from fall of Basher al-Assad's regime in Syria

The ouster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has triggered a dramatic reshaping of West Asian geopolitics, with Israel and Turkey emerging as key beneficiaries of the regime’s collapse.

The Syrian leader’s downfall, nearly 14 years after the rebellion erupted, weakens Iran’s influence in the region and presents significant strategic opportunities for Ankara and Jerusalem.

Turkey’s strategic gains

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, once an ally of Assad, became a staunch supporter of the Syrian opposition early in the conflict, largely due to Assad’s alignment with Turkey’s regional rival, Iran, Politico reported.

Over the years, Turkey has provided vital support to armed Islamist factions within the Syrian opposition. As moderate and secular rebels lost ground, Turkish-backed Islamist groups consolidated power, bolstering Ankara’s influence.

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Assad’s ouster enables Erdoğan to further his geopolitical ambitions, particularly against Kurdish separatists in northeastern Syria. Kurdish groups in the region, which share ties with Turkey’s domestic Kurdish insurgency, have long been a focal point of Turkish security policy.

With Assad gone, Ankara sees an opportunity to curb Kurdish autonomy and reshape the power dynamics in northern Syria. Additionally, the post-war reconstruction effort could prove lucrative for Turkish businesses eager to capitalize on rebuilding Syria’s shattered infrastructure.

Israel’s security Boost

In Jerusalem, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Assad’s fall a “historic day,” pointing to its impact on Iran and Hezbollah, Assad’s principal allies. Israel’s decades-long enmity with Assad’s regime has been tied to its support for Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group and a key Iranian proxy.

With Assad out of power, Iran’s ability to supply Hezbollah through land routes in Syria is effectively severed, dealing a severe blow to the group’s military capabilities, Politico reported.

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Netanyahu ordered Israeli troops to secure Syrian army positions in the Golan Heights buffer zone to prevent hostile forces from taking root amid the chaos. While celebrating the strategic opportunity, Netanyahu warned of potential instability and called for vigilance to address emerging threats in the region.

A setback for Iran and Hezbollah

Iran’s influence in Syria has been significantly undermined by Assad’s fall. Tehran, which invested heavily in propping up Assad, now faces the collapse of a critical member of its so-called “axis of resistance.” The loss of Syria as a strategic ally disrupts Iranian efforts to maintain a corridor for resupplying Hezbollah in Lebanon, further weakening its regional power.

Hezbollah, reliant on Iranian support, is also a major loser in the regime change. The militant group’s diminished capabilities could alter the balance of power in Lebanon, potentially freeing the country from Hezbollah’s dominance and opening the door for greater political and economic stability.