Is Xi Jinping becoming the biggest obstacle to China’s growth?

Having ascended to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) presidency a decade back, Xi Jinping emerged as the longest-serving head of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) after securing the third consecutive presidential term last year. His grand ambition, “China’s great rejuvenation by 2049,” aims to restore the country’s lost glory and rightful place in the world. Therefore, Xi’s series of legislative and diplomatic measures over the last decade are his proactive efforts to reach this goal.

Under Xi’s leadership, China has witnessed a rapid and drastic transformation in all aspects, all catering to increasing his control over the CCP and the military. However, his grand ambition and personalised power also brought China face to face with greater political challenges.

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Xi’s ambitions, reflected in China’s involvement in geopolitical conflicts, technological prowess, and increasing human rights violations at home, put China at a pivotal point in the current global order. What separates Xi’s vision from his predecessors is his larger-than-life goals, be it the modernisation of the military, economic aspirations (Belt and Road Initiative), technological advancements, or legislative measures adopted at home.

However, his efforts attracted more challenges and criticisms against his leadership. China’s engagement in various geopolitical conflicts in the last decade is a case in point. China’s territorial claims based on expansionist policy have been a game changer in the current geopolitical tensions witnessed in Taiwan, Hong Kong, the South China Sea and the Himalayan region.

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The release of the latest  standard map (2023) showcased Beijing’s unilateral claims over disputed territories, such as Taiwan, regions of the South China Sea, India’s Arunachal Pradesh, and Aksai Chin, on which Beijing asserts to have complete sovereignty.

Under Xi’s leadership, territorial claims over disputed regions assumed a rather aggressive and militarised nature. This is noted in the series of  military incursions in Taiwan, the tightening of legislative grip in Hong Kong, the deployment of maritime militias and surveillance vessels in the South China Sea, and similar encroachment activities in the Himalayan region.

A common feature of Chinese actions is that they are justified as ‘safeguarding national security’ and ‘protecting sovereignty,’ even though these do not receive support from other countries. Another common feature is the employment of grey-zone warfare tactics to intimidate and undermine other countries to successfully achieve their territorial ambitions without going to war.

Beyond cross-border military intimidation, China’s technological capability reach is another domain in which Xi aims for global influence and to be perceived as a significant global power. This is conducted using its information warfare tactic through disinformation campaigns and cyber-attacks worldwide.

Artificial Intelligence and Deep Fake technologies under Xi’s China are turned into tools of  cognitive warfare for this purpose. Beijing has been  found to heavily indulge in this campaign, known as the Spamouflage campaign, during the Covid-19 pandemic, intending to create a positive image of China and discredit individuals, governments, and media (especially the West) critical of the country.

Besides disinformation, the increasing use of cyber espionage to gather intellectual property and sensitive (government) information from other countries through sophisticated digital techniques has been another form of intelligence warfare under Xi’s China.

Aiming to target Western countries’ security sectors to possess intelligence on military weapons and technologies and information on neighbouring countries to assert regional influence, China’s cyber espionage campaign emerged as a new threat to global, national (and cyber) security.

As one of the world’s leading providers of 5G networks, prominent  Chinese telecommunication companies like Huawei and ZTE have drawn controversy for posing a national security threat for their involvement in intellectual property theft and cyber espionage. Besides telecommunication, Beijing’s dominance in digital technology further challenged global security through its popular social media applications, like TikTok. Notwithstanding the app’s commercial success since its launch in 2017, it soon became a new platform for China’s  geopolitical competition in cyberspace over cybersecurity, individual data privacy, and cross-border data flow via cyber-spying.

The common factor in China’s cyber activities is state sponsorship and  links with the Chinese Communist Party and the military, intended to undermine liberal democratic countries critical of Xi’s policies.

Xi’s ambitious programmes were not without controversy and criticism, adding to the geopolitical complexities we witness today. China’s  wolf-warrior diplomacy reflects Xi’s reaction to global criticisms concerning handling the Covid-19 outbreak, trade war with the US, national security threat via digital technology, and human rights abuses at home.

In 2022, the World Health Organisation (WHO) chief  declared China’s zero-Covid policy ‘unsustainable’. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), too, reiterated this sentiment, calling the zero-Covid policy a  ‘burden’. China’s strict zero-Covid policy triggered protests among citizens and contributed to Beijing’s and the world’s economic woes.

China’s human rights violations have only seen to surge since Xi assumed power. The treatment of ethnic and religious minorities in the country, especially Uyghurs and Tibetans, drew international criticism and sanctions for China. A UN  report (2022) concluded China is committing severe human rights violations against Uyghurs and other Muslim communities in China that may constitute crimes against humanity. Last year, a UN experts’  report claimed China’s forced cultural assimilation policies led to the separation of one million Tibetan schoolchildren from their families. International reaction to China’s human rights abuses came especially from the West, in the form of  trade sanctions and  visa restrictions on Chinese officials.

In the technology sphere, China’s cyber activities were also poorly received. Western countries recently  accused China of conducting a global cyber espionage campaign, filed charges against Chinese nationals involved in this, and slapped sanctions against the Asian Giant.

In addition, Beijing was also  accused of its role in election meddling (and foreign interference) in other countries. Its tech ambitions received a further blow, with countries implementing a ban on TikTok and curbing the use of Chinese 5G network equipment due to national security concerns.

Stemming from China’s policies, the country has a growing negative perception. As per the Pew Research Centre survey (2023) across 24 countries:

Ø 67 per cent expressed to have a negative opinion of China,
Ø 57 per cent viewed China’s foreign policy to be interventionist, that is, interference in the affairs of other countries,
Ø 71 per cent believed China has no positive contribution to the world’s peace and stability, and
Ø 76 per cent believed that China takes no account of the interests of other countries.

Xi Jinping’s dream of Chinese rejuvenation, while commendable for its grand ambitions to transform China into a global power, seems to backfire. All the measures he adopted to facilitate the development of his nation, analysed above, reflect his goal of amassing greater direct control over the CCP and the military.

Xi’s personalised power did not contribute to China’s positive development, as he envisioned. Instead, it pushed the country to a political challenge, especially in the global arena, whereby the world perceives Beijing’s ever-increasing authoritarian nature and anticipates its involvement in a geopolitical war in the future. It is widely believed that none but Xi Jinping himself poses the greater obstacle to Beijing’s development.

NC Bipindra is the chairman of Law and Society Alliance, a New Delhi-based think tank. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.