Is Trump pushing Europe to make China a ‘partner of choice’ over Russia-Ukraine war?

As tensions in Ukraine continue to escalate, diplomatic efforts to manage the crisis seem to be struggling to keep pace with the speed at which things are deteriorating. While the high-decibel meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, in the Oval Office on Friday signalled a marked shift in Washington’s position, the White House’s decision to pause military aid to Ukraine on Tuesday is likely to further strain the already fragile relationship between the two countries, deepening the rift that has emerged between them.

The heat of battle in Ukraine is indeed matched by rising tensions in diplomatic circles, as world leaders scramble to ease them. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has announced a four-point plan to work with Ukraine to end the war and strengthen its defence against Russia. He emphasised the role of a “coalition of the willing,” with the UK, France, and other allies stepping up efforts and trying to involve the US. This comes after Starmer hosted a summit of 18 leaders—mostly from Europe, including Ukrainian President Zelenskyy—three days earlier.

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Tensions escalated further after a fiery exchange between Zelenskyy and US President Trump at the White House, leading to the complete collapse of talks between Ukraine and the US.

While heated discussions between world leaders are not uncommon, they are rarely seen unfolding in front of cameras. A historical parallel can be drawn from March 2021, when US and Chinese diplomats clashed at a meeting in Anchorage, Alaska, shortly after Joe Biden took office. As reported by Bloomberg’s Daniel Ten Kate, what was supposed to be a routine diplomatic exchange turned into a 71-minute verbal battle, with both sides publicly challenging each other’s stance on global affairs.

Then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused China of “economic coercion” and criticised its actions in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, and Taiwan. China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, fired back, arguing that the US does not represent the world and that China follows a “United Nations-centred international system.”

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Fast forward to 2025, and Trump, now back in the White House, is shaking up global diplomacy once again. Trump, who has long championed an “America First” approach, has made controversial statements, threatened tariffs on both allies and rivals, and even floated ideas about acquiring Greenland and the Gaza Strip.

He has also called Zelenskyy a “dictator” amid Ukraine’s ongoing attempt to push back Russian forces with the help of American aid in dollars and weapons before slightly backtracking his own statement. Defending his approach, Trump said, “It’s really peace through strength. Because without the strength, it’s going to be very hard to have peace.”

Trump’s views on governance have also raised eyebrows. He recently declared on social media, “He who saves his country does not violate any law,” a phrase often attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte, suggesting his belief that leaders should not be bound by legal constraints if acting in the national interest.

Unlike the closed-door US-China spat in 2021, the US-Ukraine confrontation unfolded before the world, amplifying its impact.

Is China gaining from US-Europe divisions?

According to Alina Hrytsenko in South China Morning Post, this year’s Munich Security Conference marked a turning point in transatlantic relations. The growing rift between the US and Europe is reshaping efforts to settle the Russia-Ukraine war. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s stance is influencing how other countries, including China, could engage in the peace process.

The White House has so far resisted involving additional players in negotiations, including European states. While Kyiv and Beijing have pushed for broader participation, last week’s breakdown in talks between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and US President Trump has thrown the negotiation process into doubt.

China has long eyed a role in resolving Russia-Ukraine conflict and offered to media multiple times, but Beijing’s offer to mediate has not been taken seriously by parties involved for it is accused of supplying weapons to invading Russian army. Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, suggested at the Munich Security Conference that China could provide collective security guarantees, including deploying peacekeepers in Ukraine after hostilities end. But China has still remained outside the ambit of any meaningful mediation process.

Pro-China columnists have been advocating that Beijing could deploy peacekeepers in Ukraine, citing its contributions to such missions in the past. However, while the UK and other European countries have discussed the idea of deploying a peacekeeping force in Ukraine when a ceasefire is agreed between the two warring parties, there has been no suggestion for a China role in it. In Europe, China is still seen not just as an economic competitor but as a security threat.

One major setback for China following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been the strengthened unity among Nato’s European allies. Despite their economic ties with Beijing, European countries have become more aligned in policies that are often less favourable to China.

With Trump testing diplomatic ties with European countries, leading to some visible frustrations among European Union members, China sees a role for itself, saying that it has advocated for a Europe that is independent of the US. Similar views have been expressed by some of the top European leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron, who envisages a vision of European sovereignty.

As the Trump administration scales back decades of transatlantic cooperation, Beijing looks at the current US-Europe schism as an opening to build closer ties with Europe.

Europe seems to be at a turning point. China, by reinforcing doubts about US reliability,  may look to find an opportunity to support Europe’s push for strategic autonomy while subtly challenging Washington’s grip on the continent.

According to Kawala Xie in the South China Morning Post, China appears to interpret the recent tensions between the US and Ukraine as part of a broader geopolitical shift with indications of growing divisions within Western alliances.

Sebastian Contin Trillo-Figueroa, a geopolitics expert on EU-Asia relations at the University of Hong Kong told the Hong Komg-based newspaper that China is unlikely to approach Ukraine negotiations as an impartial mediator. Instead, he indicated that Beijing may see the weakening of Western unity as an opportunity to reinforce its own vision of a global order less centred around American influence. Trillo-Figueroa reportedly described China’s perspective as that of an eager observer, watching closely as the US seemingly undermines its own liberal order.

Can India play a bigger role in resolving the Russia-Ukraine crisis?

As China’s potential involvement sparks debate, some are looking to India as a possible mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Last month, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar suggested that India was open to considering a mediatory role if approached but maintained that New Delhi did not see itself initiating such efforts independently.

In an interview with the German economic daily Handelsblatt, Jaishankar emphasised that just as India does not expect Europe to share its perspective on China, Europe should recognise that India’s stance on Russia cannot be identical to its own.

He described India’s relationship with Russia as “stable” and “very friendly,” adding that Moscow had never acted against New Delhi’s interests. In contrast, he noted that India had faced far greater political and military challenges in its relationship with China.

When asked whether this made India a suitable mediator, Jaishankar acknowledged the possibility in theory. He highlighted India’s previous contributions, such as supporting Turkey’s efforts in negotiating the Black Sea grain corridor and backing the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) inspections of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

He clarified that India was always willing to assist when approached but reiterated that New Delhi did not believe in taking the initiative unilaterally.

Trump vs Xi: A battle for global power

According to Daniel Ten Kate, Xi Jinping uses every tool at his disposal to keep the Chinese Communist Party’s power unchallenged, while Trump is using America’s economic and military strength to maintain US dominance over China. Trump’s approach has unsettled the established global order for the time being, it may, however, shape a world that aligns more with China’s interests. Europe may see China as a big supplier as well as a high-income market for its products.

During Trump’s first term, he tried to force Xi to change key Chinese laws on intellectual property and technology transfers. This angered Chinese nationalists, who even compared Xi’s trade negotiator to a Qing dynasty official who signed the humiliating Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895. Xi resisted Trump’s demands, and the US eventually settled for a limited trade deal focused on China buying American farm products before the 2020 election. However, the Covid-19 pandemic further worsened US-China relations and hurt Trump’s reelection bid.

Now, in his second term, Trump is in a stronger position. He has announced 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports and threatened to increase them further. He also suggested he is open to a deal, demanding China approve a TikTok sale and help end Russia’s war in Ukraine. However, it remains unclear whether he will challenge China’s red lines on sovereignty.

Despite surrounding himself with China hawks, Trump’s most trusted adviser appears to be Elon Musk, who has major business interests in China. Meanwhile, Xi is playing cautiously, having learned from the first trade war. He is willing to negotiate if the terms are acceptable but remains focused on making China strong enough to resist US pressure.

From China’s perspective, Trump is simply being more transparent than previous US leaders about America’s desire for global dominance. The US has often ignored international rules when they conflicted with its interests, justifying its actions by claiming to protect democracy, fight terrorism, or prevent wars. However, as Michael Schuman wrote in The Atlantic, Trump’s policies are undermining America’s global influence.

Columnists are arguing that Trump’s admiration for autocrats and self-centred approach are weakening international security and America’s future. Despite having rivals like China and Russia on the defensive, Trump is stepping back. Trump’s seemingly cosy relationship with Putin could divide the Atlantic alliance. This may suit China, which aspires for a greater role in Europe via Russia.

At the Munich Security Conference, Vice President JD Vance criticised European leaders for sidelining far-right parties. This created an opening for China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi to present Xi Jinping as a stable alternative to Trump.

The shifting global order

With the US, China, and other key players redefining their strategies, global power dynamics are in flux. Trump’s unpredictable diplomacy, Europe’s shifting alliances, and China’s strategic manoeuvres are reshaping international relations. Whether this leads to a more multipolar world or deepens existing divisions remains to be seen, but of the many possibilities one is that Trump may induce enough frustration among European leaders that they start looking for an alternative partner in China.