Is Trump opening up a new front against China — in Myanmar for rare earths?

US President Donald Trump appears to be eyeing a reset of ties with Myanmar and opening up a new front against China.

Myanmar is among the largest producer of rare earths and a key supplier to China. At a time when China has leveraged its control of the rare earth supplies to push Trump on the backfoot in trade talks, he appears to have set eyes on Myanmar’s rare earth reserves.

In recent days, the Trump administration has heard proposals to develop ties with the various parties in Myanmar —including the junta and rebels— to acquire access to the country’s rare earth reserves, according to Reuters.

These proposals have suggested that the United States should partner with like-minded countries like India to extract and refine rare earths mined in Myanmar.

Rare earths are a collective of 17 minerals that are used in virtually everything in the modern world, ranging from household electronic items to cars and fighter planes and missiles. China controls around 90 per cent of the world’s supply of refined rare earths and rare earth magnets. China has leveraged this near-monopoly to bend the countries, including the United States, to its will in bilateral disputes and trade negotiations.

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If Trump indeed agrees to proposals, that would mark a shift in the US policy on Myanmar. Following the coup in 2021 in which Myanmar’s military overthrew the civilian government of the country, the United States has not maintained any contact with the junta.

However, in a sign of change, Trump has addressed Myanmar’s military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, as the head of state and has withdrawn sanctions on the regime .

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What proposals are on the table?

The main idea behind the proposal is to divert Myanmar’s rare earth reserves away from China into the American fold, according to Reuters.

The news agency has reported that one proposal has called for talks with Myanmar’s junta to get a peace deal with the rebel group Kachin Independence Army (KIA). Another proposal has called for a direct US-KIA deal to access rare earths in areas under KIA’s control.

In Myanmar, large swathes of the country are under rebel control that produce large quantities of rare earths. China currently buys most of these rare earths.

To sweeten the deal, it has been proposed that Trump should reduce the tariff rate of 40 per cent that he has imposed on Myanmar.

It has also been suggested that Trump should appoint a special envoy to take up the matter of rare earths in Myanmar and oversee deals in the country.

These suggestions have come from Adam Castillo, a former head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Myanmar who runs a security firm in the country, in a meeting held at the offices of Vice President JD Vance, according to Reuters.

Castillo told Reuters that he suggested to US officials that the United States could play the role of a peacemaker in Myanmar and urged the Trump administration to take a page out of China’s playbook by first brokering a bilateral self-governance deal between the Myanmar military and the KIA.

Castillo described Myanmar’s rare earth reserves as China’s “golden goose” and said that he told US officials that rebels, particularly the KIA, were tired of being exploited by China and wanted to work with the United States.

Castillo said that he had repeatedly urged US officials to pursue a deal with the KIA that includes cooperation with Quad partners, specifically India, for resource processing and eventual heavy rare earths supply to the United States.