 "Is Trump giving Putin reasons to believe he’s ‘weak’? Russia expert explains Ukraine U-turns")
US President Donald Trump’s refusal to punish Vladimir Putin for consistently refusing to make peace has not just allowed Russia to maximise gains on the battlefield but has also risked cementing the United States as a ‘weak’ party at the world stage.
In what his supporters hailed as an ultimatum, Trump on Monday announced he could impose 100 per cent tariff on Russia if Putin would not reach a deal to end the war in the next 50 days . Far from an ultimatum, Trump essentially allowed Putin a free reign on the battlefield for 50 days.
For weeks, it had been known that Putin had been preparing for a major summer offensive to maximise gains on the ground. He told the same to Trump.
Per Axios, Putin told Trump during on July 3 that he would launch maximise territorial gains in the ground offensive in the next 60 days. The 60th day will be September 1. As per Trump’s announcement, he will wait until the 50th day starting Monday —Sept. 3— to impose any tariff.
This means that Trump will wait until after the conclusion of Russian ground offensive to take any action, giving Putin a license to maximise his gains and kill Ukrainians at will in aerial attacks.
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While it is encouraging that President Trump appears to have begun to grasp that the only factor capable of influencing Vladimir Putin is force or a credible threat of force, the Monday’s announcement does not suggest any real change in his approach, says Kseniya Kirillova, a Russia analyst at Washington DC-based Jamestown Foundation.
Kirillova tells Firstpost, “It seems that President Trump is once again demonstrating inconsistency and offering Putin an opportunity to achieve gains on the battlefield. Given that Russia has long made clear its reliance on a summer offensive to secure more favorable negotiating positions, President Trump’s stance effectively hands Putin just such an opening. Therefore, I cannot yet conclude that President Trump’s position on Russia has fundamentally changed.”
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Putin is likely to interpret Trump’s inconsistency as a sign of weakness and feel emboldened about the summer offensive.
“Vladimir Putin interprets any concession as weakness and therefore seeks to extract the maximum possible advantage for himself,” says Kirillova.
Russia can sustain the war on Ukraine — but Putin has chinks in armour
By all accounts, Putin does not see a reason to make peace at the moment — particularly after getting the 50-day window from Trump to hit Ukraine with everything he has got. And Putin has got a lot to hit Ukraine with.
Even as Ukraine’s weapons supplies have been disrupted as Europe finds itself unable to provide the best arms and Trump remains non-committal, Russia’s allies continue to do everything to ensure its victory: China is keeping Russian economy afloat in every way possible; China is providing Russia not just with raw material and machinery to make weapons but also with military goods like drones; Iran has not just provided Russia with drones but has transferred production know-how; and North Korea has not just provided arms and ammunition but has provided tens of thousands of soldiers as well.
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Even as economists agree that the Russian economy, which saw a war-induced boost in 2022, has now stagnated, they maintain that Russia retains sufficient resources to sustain the war at its current intensity for at least two more years.
However, the two constraints on Russia are Ukraine’s advance capabilities in drone warfare and depleting ranks — the Trump administration has assessed that around 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed this year alone.
“The success of Russia’s offensive will largely depend on its ability to shift the balance of power in the drone war. Another key factor is Russia’s capacity to replenish its ranks. This is why US military aid will be critical to the outcome of Putin’s summer campaign. The scope and urgency of US deliveries will offer a clearer indication of President Trump’s true position on the Russia–Ukraine war,” Kirillova, the Russia analyst at Jamestown, tells Firstpost.
Despite gains in recent months on the ground and damage from near-daily aerial bombardment, Russia cannot control the entirety of Ukraine and can barely manage the regions under its occupation.
Kirillova says, “Russia is not only incapable of controlling Ukraine, but it is also unable to rebuild what it has destroyed. We are already witnessing Russia’s inability to restore even the damaged parts of the Kursk region. This underscores the serious risk that even if the war is temporarily suspended, Putin may soon be tempted to resume hostilities as a means of deflecting from failed domestic policies and his inability to reconstruct occupied Ukrainian territory.”
ALSO READ: Russia suffered 1 million casualties to capture just 12% territory in Ukraine
Kirillova further flags that even as Russia can sustain the war at the current pace, Russian military production capabilities appear to have peaked and any expansion is unlikely.
In other words, Russia may not be able to keep up if the war escalates as a result of increasing Ukrainian strikes from long-range Western weapons and long-range indigenous drones.
“Russian defence plants are already operating at full capacity and are unlikely to increase output significantly beyond current levels. Disruptions at Russian defense enterprises have been reported for two years, driven by component shortages, corruption, and other systematic issues. As of September 2023, at least 419 workshop and plant managers were fined for failing to meet Ministry of Defense requirements. The figure only reflects formal appeals against Russian government’s decisions, meaning the actual number of disrupted orders could be substantially higher. At the same time, Soviet weapons reserves were almost depleted by the fourth year of the war,” Kirillova explains.
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