Trump’s 50-day tariff threat to Russia could mean a licence for Putin to execute his Ukraine plan

US President Donald Trump’s “major statement” on the war in Ukraine turned out to be an empty threat and a green light for Russian leader Vladimir Putin to kill Ukrainians in will.

Trump on Monday said he will impose 100 per cent tariff on Russia if Putin would not agree to a peace deal in the next 50 days.

While his allies have hailed it as an ultimatum, Trump has yet again strengthened Putin’s hand and endorsed the Russian position in the war — either knowingly out of an alliance with Putin or out of failure to understand Putin’s strategy.

Trump gives go-ahead to Putin’s ground offensive

Trump’s timeline of any action on Russia fits perfectly in Putin’s strategy.

Per Axios, Putin told Trump during their call on July 3 that he would launch a renewed ground offensive to maximise territorial gains in the next 60 days. The 60th day will be September 1.

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It was after this call that Trump said he had had a lot of "bullshit" from Putin and he was “disappointed” with him.

As per Trump’s Monday announcement, he will not impose tariff until the 50th day — the 50th day will be Sept. 3.

This means that Trump will wait until after the conclusion of Putin’s offensive to take any action. In other words, Putin will be free to go all-guns blazing for the next 60 days on the ground and rain fire on Ukrainian cities from the sky because Trump will wait until after the conclusion of the offensive to take any action.

Trump’s tariff threat is empty — and impractical

Even as Trump considers tariffs to be a solution to everything and believe he can leverage trade to end conflicts, it does not work like that in the real world — and certainly not in the case of Russia.

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Last year, the US-Russia trade stood a mere $3.5 billion with imports amounting to $3 billion and export to $500 million. The two countries barely have any trade that Trump can leverage to bring Putin to make concessions on his biggest priority.

ALSO READ: With Russia’s terms to Ukraine, Putin seeks surrender — not a peace deal

Moreover, Russia will not be paying any tariffs. Irrespective of how Trump has pitched tariffs, tariffs are taxes that US importers pay to the US government on imports. So, whether Trump imposes 100 per cent tariff or 500 per cent tariff on Russia, the brunt will be borne by US importers of Russian goods — not Russia.

The only way Trump can leverage trade to some extent is by imposing what’s called ‘secondary tariffs’, which mean that all those countries trading with Russia will face tariffs on their trade with the United States.

A bipartisan Senate proposal has sought to impose secondary tariffs to the tune of 500 per cent on all those countries that buy Russian oil and gas, such as China and India. The idea behind the proposal is to deprive Russia of the revenue to fund its war. While the sponsor of the bill, Senator Lindsey Graham, has called it a “sledgehammer” for Putin’s ability to wage war, it’s an imperfect tool that Trump is unlikely to use.

Any secondary tariffs on China or India, whether 50 per cent or 500 per cent, are certain to kill ongoing trade talks with these countries and disrupt bilateral trade.

China has already made Trump blink in the ongoing trade war by leveraging its near-monopoly of rare earths. If it faces any secondary tariffs, China can pull the plug on rare earth supplies again and force Trump to change course.

But Trump can still make a difference

Even though Trump has already strengthened Putin’s hand by giving him 50 days to occupy as much land as he can and dropping as many drones and missiles on Ukrainian civilians as he can, there are still ways he can make a difference if he wants to.

If Trump indeed follows through on his promises to send Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine and long-range missiles, he could strengthen not just Ukraine’s ability to defend civilians but also take the war closer to Russians by striking deeper into the country.

ALSO READ — Ukraine and beyond: 25 years on, Putin is still fighting Cold War

With drones, Ukraine has already demonstrated the will and ability to strike deep and decisively in Russia, with ‘Operation Spider Web’ destroying a third of Russian long-range bomber and surveillance aircraft fleets.

The Financial Times has reported that Trump asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on July 4 whether he can strike Moscow. The newspaper replied that Ukraine could definitely strike Moscow with the right weapons. Last week, Trump had said he would send very “sophisticated” military equipment to Ukraine.

Whether Trump actually means his words or ends up cornering Ukraine yet again in league with Putin remains to be seen — he already did that earlier this year.

In February, after Trump and his deputy, JD Vance, ambushed Zelenskyy at the White House and berated him in front of the world, he stopped military supplies and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine. He also blocked commercial US satellite imagery providers from working with Ukraine. Russia used the pause to intensify the counterattack in Kursk province to evict Ukrainian forces.

Last year, Ukraine had mounted an incursion and captured large swathes of Russia’s Kursk province. The idea was that the Ukraine-occupied Kursk could be traded off for some Russia-occupied Ukrainian territories during peace talks. But, thanks to Trump-assisted Russian victory in Kursk, Ukraine lost that leverage.