Is Moscow risking too much by sticking to its demand to replace Zelensky?

As Kremlin doubles down on getting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “fired” from his role, US President Donald Trump is getting frustrated by Russia’s delay in implementing the so-called ceasefire deal in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Experts are now warning that the longer Moscow drags the peace talks on Ukraine, the more Russia risks losing Trump’s favour.

Even before returning to the White House, Trump was often seen claiming that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours. After assuming the role of the country’s president, Trump faced the harsh reality of the complex conflict. Despite this, he pushed a 30-day ceasefire plan and put Zelenskyy under his first, forcing the Ukrainian leader to agree to the deal.

After an ugly public spat between the two leaders in the White House and the risk of losing Washington’s support, Ukraine did say yes to the proposal. Trump then kept on saying that the “ball is in Russia’s court” and Putin eventually laid out his conditions in a 90-minute phone call with Trump.

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Kremlin wants Zelenskyy out of the picture

While delivering an address at the northern port of Murmansk, Putin suggested that Ukraine could be placed under a form of temporary administration to allow fresh elections in the country. The Russian leader’s call for the establishment of a temporary administration in Ukraine appeared to support his longtime assertion that Ukrainian authorities are not a legitimate negotiating partner since the country’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has remained in power beyond his mandated deadline to call for elections, which was passed on May 24, 2024.

“In principle, of course, a temporary administration could be introduced in Ukraine under the auspices of the UN, the United States, European countries and our partners,” the Russian leader said in his Friday address. However, elections in Ukraine are not as easy as it seems.

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During an exclusive conversation with Firstpost, Dr. Hanna Shelest, Security Studies Program Director at Prism UA and Editor-in-Chief of Ukraine Analytica, laid out the challenges of holding elections at the time of war. “Two hundred Ukrainian NGOs, including all, the biggest watchdog organisations, those who monitor elections, signed a letter saying that elections during the war are impossible. Not that we don’t want them, we are ready,” she told Firstpost.

“One million soldiers, how they are going to vote? Four million refugees, how they are going to vote? If you have each hour shelling of our territory, how do you organise the security of the place where people vote? How do you organise the campaign in the territories that are close to the battlefield? Or we have MPs from certain territories, like constituencies, if now 20 per cent of territories are occupied, do we elect these people or not?” “It’s not that we don’t want a change of power, it’s nothing about dictatorship or authoritarianism,” she furthered.

Despite the logistical issues of holding polls, the Kremlin remains adamant about its demands. Several sources close to the Russian president told The Moscow Times that the Kremlin envisions two possible scenarios for achieving its goals.

2. Regime change in Ukraine, ensuring the country remains under Russian influence.

3. See Russia solidify its control over the four occupied Ukrainian regions.

These demands can be reflected in Moscow’s usual propaganda. “If you negotiate with Ukraine’s current leadership, you cannot keep calling it a ‘Nazi regime,’ because you would have to engage with that regime," a Russian diplomat said. Two Russian diplomats also told The Moscow Times that the Kremlin is trying to discredit Zelenkyy in front of Trump. But there’s one issue in that regard. Is Trump patient enough to take it?

Trump is losing patience

On Sunday, Trump sat down with NBC News and gave his take on the ongoing situation. In a Sunday morning phone call, the American leader mentioned that he is “very angry and pissed off” by these delays.

“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault… I am going to put secondary tariffs on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump said. The president also told NBC News that he “was very angry, pissed off” over Putin’s recent comments about Zelensky’s credibility and talking about new leadership in Ukraine.

However, Trump mentioned that his Russian counterpart knows he is angry, but said that he has “a very good relationship with him” and “the anger dissipates quickly… if he does the right thing.”

But how long will Trump take it? Since a delay in the ceasefire is also affecting his reputation. Since he frequently claimed that he wanted the war to end “as soon as possible”. Now only time will tell, how long can Russia test Trump’s patience. If the Kremlin remains adamant, it loses chances to strike attractive deals with Washington and might receive more sanctions from an angry Trump administration.