Is China rapidly building up its nuclear arsenal for Taiwan invasion?

US officials have sounded the alarm bells of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan after a Pentagon report revealed that Beijing has been rapidly expanding its nuclear force over the past year.  

China, which considers Taiwan as part of its own territory, has also been expanding its military and strengthening ties with Russia to possibly launch an invasion of the island nation soon. While Taiwan continues to view itself as an independent state, its sovereignty has often been threatened by China’s belligerent ambitions as the country frequently conducts drills and sends military planes into Taiwan’s airspace.

The new Pentagon report has raised concerns over Beijing’s heightened military activities including the building of its nuclear force to invade Taiwan. But would this be enough to knock on Taiwan’s door?

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What does the report say?

Beijing’s military – which it has been working to modernise for several decades – has made recent advances, the report said, citing intelligence and open-source data.

But efforts to improve its armed forces have been hampered by corruption that led to the removal of top leaders, it added.

China’s stockpile of operational nuclear warheads has also increased from more than 500 last year to more than 600 in 2024, the report said.

It will have more than 1,000 by 2030, the Pentagon said, as Beijing pushes “to modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces rapidly”.

This, it said, would enable China to “target more US cities, military facilities, and leadership sites than ever before in a potential nuclear conflict”.

‘China lacks sophisticated urban warfare’

The Pentagon report, released on Wednesday, says that despite the People’s Liberation Army’s rapid progress, “the force has not yet demonstrated the type and scale of sophisticated urban warfare or long-distance logistics capabilities that would likely be required for operations against Taiwan or major contingencies overseas.”

A notable example is the “Five Incapables” slogan used by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to emphasize key shortcomings that officers should avoid. It criticizes officers who struggle with assessing situations, interpreting the intentions of higher authorities, making operational decisions, deploying forces effectively, or managing unforeseen challenges, the report adds.

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Meanwhile, analysts have also downgraded Beijing’s military buildup by saying there is no explicit evidence linking this expansion directly to plans for a nuclear-backed invasion of Taiwan. They say China’s military developments aim to deter external intervention and assert its regional influence rather than indicate imminent offensive action.

Is China lagging behind US?

Taiwan’s biggest ally is the US and an invasion against the island country would mean a direct confrontation with the US.

Chinese soldiers are not considered battle-hardened, as they have not participated in a large-scale war since the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War.

Unlike their American and European counterparts, who have been involved in multiple military operations and conflicts around the world, Chinese military personnel have had limited combat experience.

The US and NATO forces have been actively engaged in conflicts in the Middle East, such as in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as other peacekeeping and intervention missions.

Corruption plagues PLA

In its report, the Pentagon also highlighted Corruption in China’s military may have disrupted its progress towards its 2027 military modernisation goals.

Since last year, China’s military has undergone a sweeping anti-corruption purge and last month the defense ministry said a top-ranking military official had been suspended and was under investigation for “serious violations of discipline.”

The wide-ranging Pentagon report said that between July and December 2023, at least 15 high-ranking Chinese military officers and defense industry executives were removed from their posts.

“In 2023, the PLA experienced a new wave of corruption-related investigations and removals of senior leaders which may have disrupted its progress toward stated 2027 modernization goals,” the report said, using an acronym for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

With inputs from agencies