'Not if, but when': US predicts 'imminent' Iranian attack on Israel over top general's killing

The United States and its allies believe that an Iranian attack on Israel over the killing of a top general earlier this month is imminent and is a matter of when, not if, according to a report.

US President Joe Biden has assured Israel of complete support regarding threats from Iran. General Erik Kurilla, the Commander of US Central Command that looks after West Asia, arrived in Israel on Thursday to coordinate security arrangements regarding the Iranian threats.

On April 1, an airstrike on a building part of Iran’s diplomatic mission in Syrian capital Damascus killed Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi and six other senior Iranian military and intelligence officers. Iran blamed the strike on Israel and vowed retaliation.

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Zahedi was the top commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in Syria who was the head of IRGC’s Quds Force’s operations in Syria and Lebanon. The IRGC is the vastly influential Iranian armed force that’s separate from the country’s regular military and reports directly to the Supreme Leader. The Quds Force is the IRGC’s military and intelligence wing that looks after its covert foreign operations.

Missiles or drones?

A report by Bloomberg said that Iran may use high-precision missiles and drones to attack Israel either directly or through its proxies in the region in the coming days. Iran sponsors a network of groups in West Asia that share its opposition to Israel. These groups comprise terrorist groups Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Lebanon-based Hezbollah, and Yemen-based Houthis.

Israeli officials agree with the assessment that the Iranian attack may not necessarily come from Hezbollah, which is the strongest armed group in the region and is already fighting Israel since October 7, 2023, according to the report.

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As for the target, the report said that Israeli government and military facilities may be attacked but civilian areas may be excluded. Earlier, considering previous such attacks blamed on Iran, Israel’s diplomatic missions abroad were also believed to be potential Iranian targets.

A direct Iranian attack on Israeli soil would be a first and will mark a major escalation in West Asia. It could drag Israel and potentially the US into a direct confrontation with Iran.

Following the strike in Syria, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei vowed revenge and said the “evil regime” of Israel should be “punished”.

If Iran attacks Israel

Following the public declaration of ‘revenge’ by Iran, Israel has stated that an attack on Israeli soil will mean an Israeli strike on Iran.

In an apparent reference to Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that if anyone hits Israel, Israel will hit back.

During a visit to a military base housing F-15 warplanes, Netanyahu said that the country is “preparing for challenges from other fronts” even as its fights the war in Gaza “with full force”.

“We set a simple principle: Anyone who hits us, we hit them. We are ready to fulfill our responsibilities to Israel’s security, in defense and attack. I, and the whole of Israel, trust you,” said Netanyahu in his address to the F-15 pilots, according to The Times of Israel.

The US has said that its commitment to Israel’s security regarding the Iranian threats is “ironclad”.

“We also want to address the Iranian threat to launch a significant - they’re threatening to launch a significant attack in Israel. As I told Prime Minister Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel security against these threats from Iran and its proxies is iron clad. Let me say it again, iron clad - all we can to protect Israel’s security,” said US President Joe Biden on Wednesday.