In New Year, Putin seeks new Russian stronghold in Libya after losing Syria

In the New Year, Russia is looking forward to turning over a new leaf in its operations in West Asia and Africa.

For nearly a decade, Syria had been the base for Russia’s operations in West Asia and Africa. Through a naval base in Tartus and airbase in Latakia in the country’s west, Russia not only operated inside Syria but also projected power in the Mediterranean Sea and supported state and non-state activities in Africa.

With the fall of the Assad dynasty last month, Russia lost its clout in Syria and with it lost the potency of its two bases — the Tartus naval base and Khmeimim airbase in Latakia.

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It was Russia’s military intervention with support from Iran and ally Hezbollah that turned the tides of Syrian Civil War in Bashar al Assad’s favour in 2015 and propped his regime. As Russia got distracted in Ukraine and Iran and Hezbollah were battered from the war with Israel, the opposition forces exploited the opportunity and mounted a lightening offensive that forced Assad flee to Moscow.

Even though there are reports that Russia has reached some sort of a deal with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the new de facto ruler of Syria, it is still relocating the bulk of its operations to Libya because Russian presence in Syria is now purely at the mercy of HTS. Unlike a month before, the country is no longer ruled by an ally but an opportunist Islamist group hungry for engagement with the West — Russia’s traditional adversary.

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Russia setting up base in Syria

There are signs that Russia is setting up a base not far from the coastal city of Benghazi in Libya.

Since the ouster of Assad, Russia has launched multiple flights daily from Khmeimim airbase in Syria to Al Khadim airbase near Benghazi in Libya, according to CNN.

While Russia appears to be compensating the loss of Libya’s Khmeimi airbase by gaining Al Khadim airbase in Libya, it appears that Russia is also looking forward to compensating the loss of Tartus naval base by convincing Libyan ruler Khalifa Haftar to grant a port in Benghazi.

If Russia manages to secure the port, “Libya could well provide an alternative hub for the Russian military to provide access to the Mediterranean and as a transshipment point for other Russian interests in Africa”, noted The War Zone’s Thomas Newdick.

The CNN reported that data it has analysed shows more than one flight per day since mid-December. It said the aircraft were Antonov AN-124 transport planes and Ilyushin IL-76. Both of them are large aircraft used to transfer troops and equipment from one place to another.

Previously, the CNN has reported US and Western officials as saying that Russia had begun withdrawing a large amount of military equipment and troops from Syria.

The outlet further reported that Russia has already transferred its prized air defence facilities systems.

But can Libya be new Syria for Russia?

Russia is active in many parts of Africa and is ramping up engagement as well as military involvement in the region.

For operations in Africa, Syria used to be the hub until last month. Such operations were mostly concentrated in Central African Republic and later in Sudan, Libya, Mali, and Burkina Faso, according to CNN.

By strengthening its presence in Libya, Russia may retain enough capability to pursue its broader ambitions further south in Africa, absorbing the new costs inevitably associated with Assad’s downfall, said Jalel Harchaoui, an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

Separately, the American Enterprise Institute’s analyst noted: “Russian flights to Bamako via Libya demonstrate that Russia has already turned to Libya as an alternative to its Syrian bases.”

There are signs that Russia has been diverting resources to Libya. In weeks after Assad’s ouster, Russian forces and equipment across Syria arrived at two military bases. They appeared to have arrived there to be shipped to their next destination.

Even though Libya would provide Russia a good base in the region, it is not a perfect place, noted

CNN’s Nadeen Ebrahim and Tim Lister noted, “In some ways, Libya is a poor substitute for Syria. Transport planes can only practically reach Libya from Russia if they are allowed to overfly Turkey, providing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a handy bargaining chip.”

Much before the ouster of Assad this year, Alissa Pavia of Atlantic Council noted in an article that Russia had been expanding footprints in Libya for years.

Libya would serve as the “gateway to its operations in Sudan, Chad, Niger, and other Sahel and Central Africa countries, eventually wielding power and influence throughout these regions”, noted Pavia.

Libya’s “fragmented governance has guaranteed Russia much-needed access to air and naval military bases, especially across Cyrenaica, allowing it to coordinate its military expeditions”, said Pavia in an article for Italy’s Institute for International Political Studies.

Pavia further noted, “By maintaining a strong presence in Libya, Russia is able to pursue its broader geopolitical goals, including defying the West, expanding its military reach, and securing critical resources that are essential to sustain its economy and long-term strategic aspirations.”