In eight years, US population will start shrinking: Govt report

The population of the United States will shrink in the next 30 years due to declining birth rates and less immigration, Newsweek reported citing the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

In its latest forecast, the CBO has cut its 30-year projection by 11 million. The population of the US is now estimated to be 372 million by 2055.

The 2025 report from the CBO highlights that the population growth in the country is slowing down. Over the next 30 years, the annual growth rate is expected to be only 0.2 per cent. The new rate of growth is less than a quarter of the rate seen between 1975 and 2024.

Low fertility rates in US

The foremost reason for this slowdown is a lower fertility rate. The fertility rate of the country is now expected to be average 1.60 births per woman over the next 30 years. This is much lower than the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman needed to keep the population stable.

For the next decade, the yearly growth rate will average 0.4 per cent, but then the rate will decline to 0.1 per cent between 2036 and 2055.

US population to shrink without immigration support

Without immigration, the US population will shrink starting in 2033 in part “because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself,” the Congressional Budget Office said.

The reduced projections from last year were the results of a decline in projected fertility rates over 30 years from 1.70 births per woman to 1.60 births per woman and less immigration because of an executive order last June that temporarily suspends asylum processing at the border when U.S. officials deem they are overwhelmed, the budget office said. Replacement happens at a rate of 2.1 births per woman.

The Congressional Budget Office releases population projections each year to guide decisions on the federal budgets and the economy as well as estimating Social Security payroll taxes and benefits.

The Congressional Budget Office’s projections are higher than those made by the US Census Bureau. The Census Bureau counts the resident population, while the CBO projects includes the resident population as well as US citizens and others living abroad who are eligible for those benefits. The CBO’s projections also predict higher immigration.

With inputs from AP