 "IMF raises economic outlook for Asia; sees India, China to contribute half of global growth in 2023")
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its forecast for Asia-Pacific, saying the region’s growth will be predominantly driven by China’s recovery and “resilient” growth in India.
In its Regional Economic Outlook - Asia and Pacific report released on Tuesday, the Washington-based fund said the region would contribute around 70 per cent of global growth.
The IMF predicts Asia-Pacific’s gross domestic product to expand 4.6% this year, which is 0.3 percentage points higher than its forecast in October.
“Asia’s dynamism will be driven primarily by the recovery in China and resilient growth in India, while growth in the rest of Asia is expected to bottom out in 2023, in line with other regions,” it added.
Meanwhile, IMF said 2023 looks to be a challenging year for the global economy, with global growth decelerating as the effects of monetary policy tightening (through consistent interest rate hikes) and Russia’s war in Ukraine continue to weigh on economic activity.
Also, persistent inflationary pressures, and recent financial sector problems in the US and Europe, injecting additional uncertainty into an “already complex economic landscape”, it said.
Asia’s economy is expected to expand 4.6% this year after a 3.8% increase in 2022, contributing around 70% of global growth, the IMF said, upgrading its forecast by 0.3 of a percentage point from October.
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View AllChina and India will be key drivers with an expansion of 5.2% and 5.9%, respectively, though growth in the rest of Asia is also expected to bottom out this year, the report said.
But the IMF cut next year’s Asian growth forecast by 0.2 of a point to 4.4% and warned of risks to the outlook such as stickier-than-expected inflation, slowing global demand as well as the impact of U.S. and European banking-sector stress.
“While spillovers to the region from stress in U.S. and European financial sectors have been relatively contained thus far, Asia remains vulnerable to tightening financial conditions and to a sudden and disorderly repricing of assets,” the IMF said.
And while Asia has strong capital and liquidity buffers to fend off market shocks, the region’s highly leveraged corporate and household sectors are “significantly” more exposed to a sharp increase in borrowing costs, it added.
The IMF also urged central banks in Asia - excluding Japan and China - to keep monetary policy tight to bring down inflation, which could remain stubbornly high due in part to robust domestic demand.
“The costs of failing to bring inflation below target are likely to outweigh any benefits from keeping monetary conditions loose,” the IMF said.
“Insufficient tightening in the short term would require disproportionately more monetary tightening later to avoid high inflation becoming ingrained, making a larger contraction more likely.”
While China will be a key driver of the region’s growth, the country’s property sector remains a risk that policymakers need to address to ensure an even recovery in the sector, the IMF said.
Recent moves by the government to ease financing to developers had largely benefited bigger developers. Still, regions in China with smaller, weaker players had yet to show signs of a recovery, said Thomas Helbling, deputy director of the Asia and Pacific Department at the IMF.
“While the government’s (recent) effort has stabilised the market, it should proactively support the restructuring of weaker developers which are still suffering,” said Helbling at a media briefing in Hong Kong.
China’s policymakers have been trying to stabilise the sector that accounts for a quarter of the national GDP after a string of defaults among developers and a slump in home sales.
“For regions with weaker housing markets, the recovery has yet to take place. We need further policy measures to limit potential risks,” said Helbling.
With inputs from agencies.
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