How Syria's sudden regime shift puts China in a delicate position

The sudden collapse of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s regime after a quick and unexpected rebel victory has put China in a tricky spot. The rebels, led by the militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have taken control of Damascus, marking a major change in the region. This shift brings both challenges and opportunities for China. Many believe that China and whoever is in authority in Syria next may work together in a practical way, but the future of their relationship will depend on the changing political situation and the tough process of rebuilding Syria after the conflict.

End of an era for Assad

Syria’s regime change on 8 December, after a lightning offensive by opposition forces, marked a decisive moment in the country’s ongoing civil war. According to Al-Jazeera, Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali will supervise state institutions until they are handed over, as fighters declared an end to Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule. The ousted president and his family were granted asylum in Moscow, according to Russian media. This event occurred only a year after Assad’s high-profile visit to China, where he met with President Xi Jinping. This visit signified Beijing’s steadfast support for Assad amid the global conflict. However, the loss of the Syrian government has complicated China’s position in the region, challenging its investments and diplomatic priorities.

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Xi-Assad relationship

In September 2023, former Syrian president Assad visited China, marking an important moment in the relationship between the two countries. This visit came after Syria had been largely isolated internationally and Assad was looking for China’s support against ongoing Western sanctions and diplomatic pressure. During their meeting, President Xi Jinping and Assad emphasised China’s policy of not interfering in other countries’ affairs and respecting their sovereignty. They also discussed strengthening cooperation in areas like the economy and infrastructure with a focus on Syria’s involvement in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Xi showed strong support for Assad’s government, promising China’s help with Syria’s rebuilding and long-term recovery. According to official statements from the meeting as reported by China Daily, Xi offered China’s expertise and resources to help Syria after the conflict. This visit was important not only for improving Syria’s ties with China but also for positioning Beijing as a counterweight to Western powers in the region. China’s backing helped Assad maintain his position on the international stage, especially as his government faced increasing global criticism.

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China’s historical support for Assad

Throughout Syria’s decade-long civil war, China positioned itself as a key supporter of Assad’s regime, primarily through its use of the veto power at the UN Security Council. Both China and Russia have repeatedly blocked efforts to impose sanctions on Assad or facilitate international intervention, keeping the Syrian leader in power despite widespread global condemnation. However, unlike Moscow and Tehran, Beijing refrained from direct military involvement in Syria instead opting for a more cautious approach that avoids entangling China in the military quagmire that has engulfed the region. This decision allowed China to maintain influence without the burdens of military commitments that have strained Russia and Iran.

According to the South China Morning Post, China’s position has always been driven by a non-interventionist foreign policy, which has prioritised preventing the Syrian civil war from escalating and spilling over into neighbouring regions. Chinese academic Fan Hongda from the Shanghai International Studies University’s Middle East Studies Institute pointed out to the Hong Kong-based newspaper that despite the regime change, China’s policy toward Syria may not drastically shift. He noted that Beijing’s diplomatic traditions emphasise stability in the region and respect for sovereignty, which will guide its response in the aftermath of Assad’s ousting.

Uncertainty of future relations

The future of Syria’s politics is unclear, especially when it comes to countries like the United States and Turkey. China’s approach, however, will likely remain practical. Right now, HTS, the group leading the rebel forces, is being careful with its messages to avoid international criticism, which might help keep its relationship with China neutral, or even cooperative. However, Jean-Loup Samaan from the Middle East Institute told the South China Morning Post that the future of China-Syria relations will depend a lot on the type of government that comes after Assad.

The main question is whether the new government will welcome Chinese investment or reject China’s cautious approach.

Economic investments and BRI

Before Assad’s fall, China had already built strong economic ties with Syria, especially through its involvement in Syria’s rebuilding efforts. In 2022, Syria officially joined China’s BRI, a major global infrastructure and trade project. This allowed China to increase its investments, such as a major 36MW solar energy project in early 2024, worth over $37.6 million. Although these investments were significant, Chinese companies have been careful in their dealings with Syria due to concerns about US sanctions and the instability caused by the war.

Samaan believed that the new government will likely accept Chinese investments because Syria is in desperate need of economic help, but the ongoing instability might limit how much can be done. The uncertain political situation in Syria is a big concern for Chinese investors, who worry about the risks of the continued conflict. Despite these concerns, Syria remains a place that could attract investments due to its strategic location at the crossroads of Asia, Africa and Europe.

Xinjiang factor and extremism concerns

China is worried about the rise of extremism in Syria, especially because of its potential impact on its Xinjiang region, which has faced unrest. Since the Syrian conflict began, China has been concerned about Uyghur militants, many of whom have joined groups like the Turkestan Islamic Party to fight in Syria. Reports suggest that Chinese officials have even visited Syria to gather information on these militants, particularly in Idlib, where the Turkestan Islamic Party is active.

Although the HTS group has connections to extremist factions, its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, has distanced himself from Al Qaeda, indicating a more practical approach. For China, this reduces the risk of these radical movements spreading to Xinjiang, where separatist movements have been a long-standing issue.

A pragmatic future

As Syria grapples with its uncertain future, China’s approach will likely remain pragmatic, balancing its strategic interests with the realities of the region. While the fall of Assad represents a significant shift, China’s focus on stability and its non-interventionist policy provide it with the flexibility to engage with various factions in Syria. Its investments in the country, though cautious, are unlikely to be fully abandoned, given Syria’s dire economic needs. Whether or not Beijing can maintain its influence in the post-Assad era will depend largely on the ability of Syria’s new government to establish stability and navigate the complex regional dynamics that have long defined West Asia, or the Middle East.