How Israeli strikes on Iran challenge credibility of Russian air defence systems

Countries that use Russian air defence systems, especially the S-300, must have been shocked to see Israeli jets attacking these defences during the rising conflict with Iran. This situation has highlighted serious weaknesses in Russian-made air defence systems. After Israel’s extensive airstrikes on Iranian military sites, which reportedly destroyed some S-300 units, the reliability of these systems is now being closely examined.

This latest event further damages the reputation of Russian air defence systems, which have already been criticised for their poor performance during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine has successfully targeted both the S-300 and the more advanced S-400 systems, raising doubts about how dependable they really are.

The S-300 missile family, developed in the late 1960s, was designed to defend against different aerial threats, including planes and drones. The S-300P version, introduced in 1978, was meant to replace older Soviet systems and has since been sold to nearly two dozen countries. Although it hasn’t seen much combat, its performance has often been compared to the US Patriot PAC-2 system, suggesting it may not be as reliable against modern threats as previously thought, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

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Failures in combat

The airstrikes on October 26, which involved over 100 Israeli aircraft targeting Iranian military sites, revealed serious weaknesses in the S-300 defence system. Reports from The Telegraph and Wall Street Journal show that Iranian defences were mostly ineffective and failed to stop the missiles fired by Israel. Key targets included Iranian S-300 systems at Tehran’s Imam Khomeini International Airport and several missile manufacturing sites linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. These strikes demonstrated Israel’s advanced intelligence and operational skills, which have allowed it to breach Iranian defences more easily, as noted by The Telegraph.

Broader geopolitical context

The impact of Israel’s airstrikes goes beyond just military action. It marks a significant change in how countries view Russian weapons, especially among long-time customers. The SIPRI reports that Russian arms exports have dropped by 52 per cent since 2022, showing a decrease in trust from clients, including India, which has traditionally depended on Russian military technology. This loss of confidence in Russian air defence systems creates major challenges for Moscow as it tries to keep its influence in the global arms market, according to SIPRI.

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Strategic implications for clients

India has invested a lot in Russian defence technology, buying five S-400 “Triumf” anti-aircraft missile systems through a $5.4 billion deal signed in October 2018. The first system arrived in 2021, and the second and third systems came in 2022 and 2023, respectively. These systems have been strategically placed in key locations to counter potential threats from Pakistan and China, as well as to protect India’s airspace. The original agreement with Russia was to have all S-400 systems delivered by 2024, but this has been delayed to 2026 due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

For now, a report from The Wall Street Journal indicates that Indian security officials see Israel’s success against the S-300 as not threatening and continue to trust in their S-400 systems. Additionally, India is developing its own long-range air defence systems to work alongside Russian technology, showing a gradual shift away from depending solely on Russian arms.

The S-400 system has been a key part of Russian air defence since it was deployed in 2007. It was initially seen as a strong competitor to the US Patriot system, posing a significant challenge to Nato air superiority. However, recent events have raised doubts about its reliability, according to The Wall Street Journal. As the S-300 system has had trouble performing well, scepticism is growing about the capabilities of its successor, the S-400.

Despite recent challenges, Russia still considers its alliance with Iran important, especially since Iran has provided military equipment, including drones, to Moscow during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as reported by The Telegraph.

A watershed moment

Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian military targets mark a significant turning point for the S-300 and S-400 air-defence systems, raising important questions about the reliability of Russian military technology. As traditional clients may seek to explore their options, the reputation of Russian arms is falling, which could alter global military cooperation for years.