Here's why China’s birth figures are set to resume their downward spiral in 2025 after brief hiatus last year

China is bracing for another drop in birth numbers in 2025 as demographic trends continue to point toward a long-term population decline, despite a slight uptick in 2024 attributed to unique factors.

In 2024, births rose for the first time since 2017, reaching 9.54 million, up from 9.02 million in 2023. Experts attributed the increase to a rise in marriages the previous year and the auspicious Year of the Dragon in the Chinese zodiac, which encouraged some parents to have children, South China Morning Post reported.

However, the broader trend of declining births remains unchanged, with key indicators signaling further challenges ahead. Marriage registrations, a major predictor of birthrates, fell sharply during the first nine months of 2024, dropping 16.6 per cent year-on-year to 4.75 million couples, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs. Demographers estimate total marriage registrations for the year could hit their lowest level since 1980, potentially falling below 6 million in 2025.

Factors behind the decline

Experts cite a variety of reasons for the continued decline in births:

• Fewer women of childbearing age: China’s population of women aged 20 to 35 has steadily declined over the past decade, reflecting lower birthrates in earlier generations.

• Changing attitudes: Shifting cultural norms around marriage and child-rearing have led more young people to delay or forgo both. Between 2013 and 2023, the marriage rate among Chinese aged 20 to 29 dropped significantly, and the proportion of unmarried women aged 30 doubled from one in 10 to one in five.

• Economic and social pressures: High living costs, limited childcare options, and intense work expectations deter many couples from having children.

• Declining fertility desires: Surveys show younger generations are increasingly unwilling to have children, citing financial burdens and lifestyle preferences.

These trends are unlikely to reverse in the near term, according to He Yafu, an independent demographer.

“A decrease in the number of women of childbearing age, changing attitudes towards marriage and child rearing, an increasing number of individuals choosing not to marry or have children, as well as the younger generation’s declining willingness to have children are all key factors contributing to declining births,” SCMP quoted him as saying.

Policy responses fall short

Local governments across China have introduced pro-natal policies in recent years, hoping to encourage births. Measures include extending marriage leave, with some regions offering up to 30 days, and providing financial incentives for larger families.

Shandong province recently aligned with other regions by increasing statutory marriage leave to 18 days, while Shanxi and Gansu offer 30 days. However, experts argue such measures are insufficient to address the deeper social and economic factors driving population decline.

China’s population fell for a third consecutive year in 2024, dropping by 1.39 million to 1.4083 billion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Deaths have outpaced births, and the government faces growing challenges from an aging population and shrinking workforce.

Without significant changes, China’s population decline could accelerate, undermining economic growth and social stability.