Govt panel says megaquake may hit Japan within next 30 years

A Japanese government panel has predicted that there is a 16 to 18 per cent likelihood of central Japan getting hit by a megaquake within the next 30 years.

The Earthquake Research Committee announced Friday (June 27) that active faults off Kinki western region and Hokuriku central region were projected to trigger a quake of magnitude 7 or higher.

The quake can occur in any of the 23 active faults and fault zones spanning at least 20 kilometres in the Sea of Japan, the panel said.

The likelihood of a magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquake occurring along the western nine faults, primarily off the northern coast of the Kinki region, is estimated at 4 to 6 per cent.

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For the eastern 14 faults, including those off the Noto Peninsula, the probability is higher, ranging from 12 to 14 per cent.

“About 10% in the next 30 years is a high figure, signaling that (a large earthquake) could happen while we are alive,” University of Tokyo professor emeritus Naoshi Hirata, who heads the committee, was quoted as saying by Japan Times.

“We hope people will take measures such as making homes earthquake-resistant and securing furniture.”

The fault zone north of the Noto Peninsula, the epicentre of the 2024 earthquake, has a near-zero percent chance of triggering a major quake in the next 30 years.

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Conversely, a fault and segments of a fault zone west of the peninsula are deemed the most likely among 23 sites to cause a significant quake, with probabilities of 1 to 2 per cent each.

“An earthquake like that of last year may not occur in a fault zone on the northern coast of the Noto Peninsula for a while, but it’s quite possible that such a quake will occur in another area,” Hirata said.

Notably, Japan’s Noto Peninsula was shaken by a massive 7.5 earthquake on January 1 last year as the world celebrated the arrival of the New Year.

Hirata urged the government to prepare for potential tremors and tsunamis at a scale on par with previous earthquakes.

The panel also provided long-term evaluations and data on expected seismic intensity for quakes across the 23 faults.

A quake in a fault off the coast of Fukui Prefecture is projected to reach a lower 6 on the Japanese seismic scale, the third-highest level, in parts of Fukui City.