 "Goma under siege: What do M23, Rwanda want and what can happen next?")
The March 23 Movement (M23), backed by Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) soldiers, on January 26, laid siege to Goma, a vital city of over a million people in the mineral-rich eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Since then, the region has been racked with chaos. This escalation is a stark reminder of the 2012 takeover.
We answer some burning questions about Goma’s current situation, the potential causes behind the conflict, and what can be expected going ahead.
What’s it like in Goma right now?
Artillery shelling and missile strikes have marked the fighting since early December 2024, with intensifying barrages in January 2025 paving the way for the latest offensive.
M23 and RDF forces swiftly captured Goma’s airport and national radio station while engaging in fierce clashes with the Congolese military (FARDC) and allied armed groups in at least 13 neighbourhoods. Several other districts fell without resistance, underscoring the rebels’ military superiority.
The violence has led to widespread demonstrations. Protests in Kinshasa and other cities have turned violent, with enraged civilians targeting embassies perceived as sympathetic to the M23, setting several ablaze.
Despite the intensification of hostilities, the current offensive differs from the last major assault on Goma in 2012. Then, nearly half of M23’s documented violence involved direct attacks on civilians. In contrast, data indicates that since their resurgence in 2021, less than 15 per cent of their annual operations have explicitly targeted non-combatants.
However, the civilian toll surged in January 2025, with more than 25 reported incidents of direct attacks against non-combatants—making it the deadliest month for civilians since the 2012 takeover.
Impact Shorts
View AllWhy did Rwanda-backed M23 take Goma?
Analysts point to a mix of security concerns, economic interests, and the inherent momentum of prolonged conflict as key factors behind the renewed offensive.
Goma, the capital of North Kivu, is both a strategic economic hub and a trade conduit to Rwanda. Numerous international businesses, NGOs, and media organisations operate in the city, making its control highly desirable for any actor in the region.
The Congolese government, wary of persistent instability, had placed the province under military rule, but the death of Major General Peter Cirimwami in a clash with M23 on January 23 further weakened Kinshasa’s hold over the region.
The M23 has long benefited financially from the region’s vast mineral wealth. By controlling smuggling routes and levying informal taxes on miners and road users, the rebels generate significant income. Cobalt, a critical component in electric vehicle batteries, is among the most lucrative commodities under their purview, alongside gold, tin, tantalum, and tungsten– minerals essential to global industries ranging from electronics to aerospace.
Rwanda, for its part, frames its involvement as a necessary step to neutralise the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), an armed group with historical ties to the perpetrators of the 1994 genocide. Rwandan President Paul Kagame insists that his country’s actions are defensive, aimed at preventing future threats emanating from the Congolese border.
Yet, many experts view Rwanda’s security justification as a convenient pretext for economic expansionism. Thierry Vircoulon of the French Institute of International Relations argues that Rwanda’s true ambition is to maintain control over the resource-rich territories of eastern Congo. The profits from illicit mineral trade provide Kigali with a significant economic incentive to remain involved in the region.
Can M23 hold Goma?
M23’s previous occupation of Goma in 2012 ended abruptly due to a combination of international pressure and internal factionalism. Within weeks, the rebels withdrew following Ugandan-brokered negotiations.
This time, analysts suggest that M23 is less likely to fracture. Unlike in 2012, when divisions weakened their cohesion, the group now operates under tighter coordination with Rwanda’s military, making internal dissent less probable.
M23’s leadership is keen to prove that they can govern Goma more effectively than the Congolese administration. Their messaging has consistently attacked the corruption and inefficiency of Kinshasa’s rule. By maintaining a semblance of order in Goma, they aim to bolster their legitimacy both domestically and internationally.
However, holding the city poses substantial challenges. The DRC government has vowed not to let history repeat itself, and military reinforcements are expected. Regional actors, including Uganda and Burundi, could also be drawn into the conflict, further complicating M23’s ability to retain control.
What could happen over the next few weeks?
The unfolding crisis in Goma presents two primary scenarios: diplomatic negotiations or escalating military retaliation, according to Ladd Serwat, Africa Senior Analyst at a non-profit organisation called Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED).
1. A negotiated settlement
If the M23 and RDF consolidate their hold over Goma, their strengthened position could force Kinshasa to negotiate. The rebels and their Rwandan allies are likely to demand significant concessions, including an end to Congolese collaboration with the FDLR and a crackdown on anti-Rwandan rhetoric.
Political accommodations, such as granting M23-aligned officials power in North Kivu, may also be on the table. Additionally, economic arrangements—particularly concerning the extraction and trade of cobalt and other minerals—could form a critical part of any agreement.
The 2012 siege ended in similar fashion, with negotiations brokered by Uganda leading to a withdrawal. Recent UN reports indicate that Uganda may still be involved in supporting M23, potentially positioning Kampala as a mediator once again. However, even if a deal is struck, sporadic fighting in other parts of North Kivu is likely to persist.
2. Military escalation
Alternatively, the Congolese government may opt for a full-scale military response. Already, FARDC has launched retaliatory artillery strikes into Rwandan territory, specifically targeting locations in Rubavu district. The expulsion of Rwandan diplomats from Kinshasa and the DRC’s refusal to participate in East African Community-led peace talks in Tanzania further signal a hardened stance.
Should Kinshasa commit to a military solution, the fighting could escalate beyond North Kivu, potentially drawing in neighboring countries. Burundi and Angola, both of which have previously contributed troops to regional peacekeeping efforts, may intervene to counter Rwanda’s influence.
Meanwhile, Rwanda itself could respond aggressively to Congolese cross-border shelling, heightening the risk of a broader conflict.
The uncertain road ahead
Whether through diplomacy or force, the coming weeks will determine whether this latest occupation follows the trajectory of 2012 or spirals into a prolonged conflict.
In a region where war has become a recurring cycle, the question remains: is peace within reach, or is eastern Congo doomed to yet another chapter of bloodshed and displacement?
With inputs from agencies
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