 "German election: Conservatives eye victory as far-right AfD gains ground in polarised contest")
Germany’s political leaders are making a last-minute push for votes ahead of Sunday’s crucial election , a contest that is being considered to have major implications not only for Germany but for all of Europe.
Conservative frontrunner Friedrich Merz assured supporters that his leadership would reinforce Germany’s role in Europe and relegate the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to the political fringes.
Merz will conclude his Christian Democrat campaign with a rally in Munich, while his opponents will make their final appeals during a televised “speed-dating” event with voters.
Election frontrunner Merz, the head of the conservative CDU/CSU bloc, warned on Friday that while Germany’s future lay in the West, it was not clear that the West would include the United States anymore.
The election comes after months of political paralysis caused by the collapse of the previous government. Across Europe, there is hope that this vote will bring stability to the EU’s largest democracy and economy, which has been grappling with a prolonged recession.
However, change will not be immediate. Forming a coalition government will take weeks, as no single party can govern alone. The campaign has focused on two major issues: reviving the economy and addressing migration and security, the latter gaining urgency following a series of deadly attacks since May 2024.
Merz vows ‘strong voice’ for Germany in EU
Germany’s conservative election frontrunner Friedrich Merz promised Saturday in his last rally before Sunday’s elections that if he takes power he will be a “strong voice in the European Union”.
With US President Donald Trump back, Europe must “sit at the main table and safeguard our interests vis-a-vis Russia and China”, Merz told the campaign rally in Munich.
Impact Shorts
More Shorts“Europe must become stronger again and Germany must become more involved in the European Union,” said Merz, who is widely expected to beat centre-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz, according to the polls.
“Every election is a pivotal election, a historic election,” Merz told the rally of his CDU/CSU alliance.
But he pointed to the special “circumstances under which this election will take place tomorrow”, to “what we are currently experiencing in the world” and what it could mean for the post-war order.
Germany’s far-right AfD party gains momentum ahead of Sunday’s election
Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is poised to secure gains in Sunday’s election, according to projections. The centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) are expected to emerge as the largest party in the Bundestag with 220 seats, positioning them to appoint their first chancellor since Angela Merkel’s departure in 2021.
The final YouGov MRP poll before the election predicts the AfD will win 145 seats, surpassing the 115 seats projected for the ruling SPD, whose popularity has plummeted under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Meanwhile, the Greens, the SPD’s coalition partner, are forecast to drop from their record 15% vote share in 2021 to 13% this Sunday.
‘Two major problems’
US President Donald Trump’s threats of a trade war spell more trouble ahead for Germany after its economy has shrunk for the past two years, and as it also faces bitter social polarisation on the flashpoint issues of immigration and security.
The AfD has had strong support from Trump’s inner circle, with tech billionaire Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance speaking out in support of the party.
With domestic tensions running high, two far-right demonstrations as well as a counter protest are expected to draw crowds in Berlin on Saturday.
In a final TV debate with Scholz on Wednesday, the CDU’s Merz called on Germans to give him a strong mandate to “solve the country’s two major problems: migration and the economy”.
On Saturday afternoon, Merz will hold a final election rally in Munich alongside Markus Soeder, leader of the CSU, the CDU’s sister party in the southern state of Bavaria.
Scholz, speaking at his final campaign rally in Dortmund on Friday, stressed his support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and defended Germany’s commitment to free speech in a pushback against recent comments Vance made in a blistering speech at the Munich Security Conference.
Scholz pledged that “we won’t leave Ukraine alone and decide things over their heads and we will ensure that Ukraine is a country that can choose its own government”.
Coalition complications
Stephanus Remmert, an SPD supporter at Friday’s rally, said he was “still hopeful” about the election but regretted that some social, climate and economic issues had gotten short thrift during the campaign.
“I hope we don’t slide too far to the right and that we can form a strong counterweight to America,” he said.
In Berlin, 28-year-old Jonathan Winkler, a video editor, said he was planning to vote for the conservatives despite “not being a big fan of Merz”.
If the polls are correct, Merz will win but then need the support of at least one and possibly two other parties to form a government.
The conservative leader has ruled out forming a ruling alliance with the AfD, which leaves his two most likely partners as the SPD and the Greens – who are polling on around 15 and 13 percent respectively.
This would force them into a lengthy negotiating process to rebuild trust after a heated election campaign in which they clashed on migration and how to deal with the AfD, but also on fiscal policy questions.
“Forming a coalition is likely to be very difficult indeed,” said Jacob Ross, a researcher at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
“Nevertheless, it would be in Germany’s interest to have people in place in Berlin who are capable of acting as quickly as possible.”
With inputs from agencies
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